2807 Woodwinds Ct · Kirksville, MO 63501

$88,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,109 sqft · Condo public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1986 $80/sqft · 11% below area Est $99k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Find comfort in this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom low maintenance home. This unit offers convenient access to community amenities and more. Property is currently rented for $700 per month until May 31, 2026. Call Stephanie Mills at 660.216.2380 to set up your showing today.

Key facts

• Pool
• Built 1986
• Listed 114 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.2% in Kirksville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#211 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Kirksville R-III (town): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Adair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $80,899 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.96%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,688
• List price: $88,900
• Delta: -9.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-7,931
• Equity at exit: $13,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,200
• Equity at exit: $7,686

Cash invested: $24,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63501

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$466
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $742/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA est. from 5 same-building comps: −$220
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $994

Max offer price $88,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $128	+0% $103	+5% $78	+10% $53
Rent	-10% $14	-5% $59	+0% $103	+5% $147	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $126	base $103	+0.5pp $80	+1.0pp $56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,225
• Closing costs: $2,667
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $88,900 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,900 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,900 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,900 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,900 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $88,900 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $88,900 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,900 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $88,900 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $88,900 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $88,900 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $88,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $88,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $88,900 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,900 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,900 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-02-24
    listed $88,900 Active 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Find comfort in this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom low maintenance home. This unit offers convenient access to community amenities and more. Property is currently rented for $700 per month until May 31, 2026. Call Stephanie Mills at 660.216.2380 to set up your showing today.

18. 2026-02-24
    listed $88,900 Active 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Find comfort in this updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom low maintenance home. This unit offers convenient access to community amenities and more. Property is currently rented for $700 per month until May 31, 2026. Call Stephanie Mills at 660.216.2380 to set up your showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $742 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $862 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$121/yr (+$10/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,980
• − Property taxes: −$742
• − Insurance: −$444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,079
• − Management: −$1,079
• − HOA: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$2,586
• Taxable loss: −$62
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15
• After-tax cash flow: $1,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kirksville R-III
• NCES district ID: 2916740
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $33,570
• Composite: 31.21/100
• National rank: #6037
• State rank: #194 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kirksville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #10590

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kirksville, MO
• County: Adair County · 21,218 people
• City population: 21,218
• Metro: Kirksville, MO
• Population (ZIP): 21,218
• Household income: $60,729
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Adair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,570 people
• By 2030: 25,728 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 25,556 · -0.1%
• By 2050: 25,811 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 29,164 · +14.1%
• By 2100: 31,846 · +24.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.6% · R 66.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: -1.3pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+24.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.58%
• Current HPI: 168.7332
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Kirksville, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $88,900 NECAR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $88,900 NECAR

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $742 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.