308 Kitchell St · Pana, IL 62557

$40,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1900 9,600 sqft lot $39/sqft · 24% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLING AS IS. Located in a nice neighborhood. Carpenter/house flipper dream.

Key facts

• 9,600 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 150 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($978 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 6.4% in Pana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#599 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pana CUSD 8 (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #360 of 620 in IL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Christian County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.86%
• DSCR: 3.31
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,724
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -62.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 E 5th St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (+8%)	15mo	$89,000	$82	57
400 S Clark St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (+0%)	13mo	$36,000	$35	50
106 S Cedar St	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,152 (+13%)	5mo	$100,000	$87	44
608 Maple St	0.24mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,151 (+13%)	14mo	$89,000	$77	42
1014 E 1st St	0.75mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-1%)	15mo	$70,000	$69	39
204 Wells St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (+0%)	24mo	$93,000	$91	38
212 S Hickory St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,148 (+13%)	24mo	$77,000	$67	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $24,370
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $61,009
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62557

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $745/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $365

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $40,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $40,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 132 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $40,000 Active 131 DOM
18. 2026-01-14
    listed $40,000 Active 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    SELLING AS IS. Located in a nice neighborhood. Carpenter/house flipper dream.

19. 2000-12-01
    soldstatus $38,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $745 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $827 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$81/yr (+$7/mo · 10.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$745
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$939
• − Management: −$939
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $5,508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $4,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pana CUSD 8
• NCES district ID: 1730630
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,385
• Composite: 20.88/100
• National rank: #8493
• State rank: #360 of 620 in IL

Livability — Pana

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #599
• US rank: #12409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pana, IL
• Population (ZIP): 6,859

Population outlook (Christian County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,182 people
• By 2030: 29,787 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 26,793 · -14.1%
• By 2050: 23,757 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 17,333 · -44.4%
• By 2100: 11,573 · -62.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Christian

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.7) · D 25.9% · R 72.6% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -46.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.7 2020: R+44.6 2016: R+42.7 2012: R+23.1 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.82%
• Current HPI: 135.6938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+2.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $40,000 CIBR
• 2000-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $745 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.