15 Post Oak Trl · Greenville, TX 75402

$170,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,815 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1967 0.43 ac lot $60/sqft · 50% below area Est $338k · 50% under ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this modern-ranch charmer situated in one of Greenville's well-established neighborhoods, featuring spacious lots and lush mature trees. Inside, you'll find an entertainer's dream...a massive game room or den with a wet bar and indoor grill, a cozy living room with a brick fireplace, and a nicely-appointed galley kitchen flowing seamlessly into a joyful breakfast area. The formal dining room offers space for hosting, while the home's four bedrooms and three baths provide needed functionality for all. With a rear entry garage, additional carport space, and thoughtful touches throughout, this Fannie Mae Homepath Property has more than meets the eye. Do not hesitate...schedule a viewing today to discover all this residence has to offer and make it your own!

Key facts

• Wet bar
• Brick fireplace
• Galley kitchen

Tags

• GAME ROOM
• WET BAR
• INDOOR GRILL
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.1% in Greenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#78 in TX, #2,719 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, schools D-, commute F.
• Greenville ISD (town): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #743 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 295 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.12%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,349
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -49.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
510 Ellis Place Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,683 (-5%)	1mo	$425,000	$158	83
403 Ellis Place Dr	0.29mi	4/3.5	2,743 (-3%)	8mo	$340,000	$124	74
1001 Tanglewood	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,572 (-9%)	3mo	$290,000	$113	70
10220 Edgewood	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,594 (-8%)	12mo	$369,365	$142	66
5004 Peacock Ln	0.17mi	4/3.5	2,488 (-12%)	13mo	$414,900	$167	60
135 Rosehaven	0.39mi	4/3.0	3,061 (+9%)	11mo	$430,063	$140	58
175 Rosehaven	0.42mi	4/3.0	3,061 (+9%)	10mo	$425,094	$139	58
535 Cristo Range	0.35mi	4/2.0	2,465 (-12%)	3mo	$399,062	$162	57
200 Brent Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,701 (-4%)	11mo	$424,900	$157	52
140 Brent Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,701 (-4%)	13mo	$424,900	$157	51
165 Rosehaven	0.42mi	4/2.0	2,465 (-12%)	13mo	$414,790	$168	45
10807 Old Mill Rd	0.51mi	4/3.5	3,217 (+14%)	11mo	$699,900	$218	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,838
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,226
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75402

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$551 /mo · $6,607/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,915

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $498	-5% $450	+0% $401	+5% $353	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $210	-5% $306	+0% $401	+5% $497	+10% $593
Rate	-1.0pp $487	-0.5pp $445	base $401	+0.5pp $357	+1.0pp $313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
505 Ellis Place Dr Greenville, TX	4.0	3.0	2701	$3,195	$1.18	2d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-06
   historical Active Option Contract 778-char remark

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   Step into this modern-ranch charmer situated in one of Greenville's well-established neighborhoods, featuring spacious lots and lush mature trees. Inside, you'll find an entertainer's dream...a massive game room or den with a wet bar and indoor grill, a cozy living room with a brick fireplace, and a nicely-appointed galley kitchen flowing seamlessly into a joyful breakfast area. The formal dining room offers space for hosting, while the home's four bedrooms and three baths provide needed functionality for all. With a rear entry garage, additional carport space, and thoughtful touches throughout, this Fannie Mae Homepath Property has more than meets the eye. Do not hesitate...schedule a viewing today to discover all this residence has to offer and make it your own!

2. 2026-04-29
   status Active 778-char remark

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   Step into this modern-ranch charmer situated in one of Greenville's well-established neighborhoods, featuring spacious lots and lush mature trees. Inside, you'll find an entertainer's dream...a massive game room or den with a wet bar and indoor grill, a cozy living room with a brick fireplace, and a nicely-appointed galley kitchen flowing seamlessly into a joyful breakfast area. The formal dining room offers space for hosting, while the home's four bedrooms and three baths provide needed functionality for all. With a rear entry garage, additional carport space, and thoughtful touches throughout, this Fannie Mae Homepath Property has more than meets the eye. Do not hesitate...schedule a viewing today to discover all this residence has to offer and make it your own!

3. 2026-04-16
   historical Active Option Contract 778-char remark

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   Step into this modern-ranch charmer situated in one of Greenville's well-established neighborhoods, featuring spacious lots and lush mature trees. Inside, you'll find an entertainer's dream...a massive game room or den with a wet bar and indoor grill, a cozy living room with a brick fireplace, and a nicely-appointed galley kitchen flowing seamlessly into a joyful breakfast area. The formal dining room offers space for hosting, while the home's four bedrooms and three baths provide needed functionality for all. With a rear entry garage, additional carport space, and thoughtful touches throughout, this Fannie Mae Homepath Property has more than meets the eye. Do not hesitate...schedule a viewing today to discover all this residence has to offer and make it your own!

4. 2026-03-06
   listed $170,000 Active 778-char remark

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   Step into this modern-ranch charmer situated in one of Greenville's well-established neighborhoods, featuring spacious lots and lush mature trees. Inside, you'll find an entertainer's dream...a massive game room or den with a wet bar and indoor grill, a cozy living room with a brick fireplace, and a nicely-appointed galley kitchen flowing seamlessly into a joyful breakfast area. The formal dining room offers space for hosting, while the home's four bedrooms and three baths provide needed functionality for all. With a rear entry garage, additional carport space, and thoughtful touches throughout, this Fannie Mae Homepath Property has more than meets the eye. Do not hesitate...schedule a viewing today to discover all this residence has to offer and make it your own!

5. 2025-11-21
   historical
6. 2025-10-07
   price $230,000
7. 2025-09-15
   price $240,000
8. 2025-09-03
   price $290,000
9. 2025-08-01
   listed $300,000 Active
10. 2023-07-16
    status Active
11. 2023-07-16
    price $309,000
12. 2023-05-31
    listed $310,000 Active
13. 2022-10-12
    soldstatus
14. 2022-10-11
    soldstatus Closed
15. 2022-10-04
    status Pending
16. 2022-09-08
    historical Active Option Contract
17. 2022-08-18
    listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,607 · $551/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,607 · $551/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$6,607
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,326
• − Management: −$2,326
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $2,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$600
• After-tax cash flow: $4,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,374
• Composite: 19.56/100
• National rank: #8759
• State rank: #743 of 826 in TX

Livability — Greenville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #2719

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greenville, TX
• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• City population: 42,767
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,098
• Household income: $77,877
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 361.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.52%
• Current HPI: 232.0505
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.00%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-42.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $290,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-07-16 Price Changed $309,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-31 Listed $310,000 NTREIS
• 2022-10-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-10-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-09-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-08-18 Listed $295,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,607 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.