3478 Briar Bay Blvd #204 · West Palm Beach, FL 33411

$209,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 863 sqft · Condo public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2002 $403/mo HOA · 22% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath second-floor condo located in the gated community of Briar Bay Cove 1. This unit features tile flooring throughout, vaulted ceilings, and updated LG kitchen appliance package replaced in 2024, including the refrigerator, range, microwave, and dishwasher. The washer and dryer were also replaced in 2024. Owner has paid the special assessment in full. Ready for a quick closing. Rental Restriction: Must own the unit for a minimum of one (1) year prior to leasing.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Tile flooring
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• TILE FLOORING
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• REPLACED WASHER AND DRYER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-510 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (43.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (43.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#75 in FL, #1,255 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grassy Waters Elementary School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 739 students, 64% FRL); Jeaga Middle School (math 18% / reading 30%, grade F, #532 of 571 statewide, top 94%, 941 students, 78% FRL); Palm Beach Lakes High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,688 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 52% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 574 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,836 (43.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.47%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $77,819
• Equity at exit: $188,284

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.24×
• Total profit: $248,273
• Equity at exit: $406,041

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33411

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 574
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,810 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,246/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$403
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,456

Max offer price $118,836

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3512 Briar Bay Blvd #105 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	883	$2,000	$2.27	7d	1	0.05mi
3490 Briar Bay Blvd #104 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	883	$1,799	$2.04	14d	1	0.11mi
3490 Briar Bay Blvd West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	920	$1,800	$1.96	3d	1	0.11mi
3810 N Jog Rd West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	904	$1,950	$2.16	7d	2	0.21mi
3790 N Jog Rd #203 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	863	$1,850	$2.14	7d	1	0.22mi
3760 N Jog Rd #204 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	863	$1,900	$2.20	24d	1	0.23mi
3504 Briar Bay Blvd #205 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	863	$1,800	$2.09	4d	1	0.28mi
3504 Briar Bay Blvd #205 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	863	$1,850	$2.14	24d	1	0.28mi
197 Sussex E Unit 197 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	684	$1,500	$2.19	24d	1	0.62mi
16 Sussex E Unit 16 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,350	$2.37	12d	1	0.64mi
176 Sussex I Unit I West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,400	$2.46	17d	1	0.68mi
159 Sussex H West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,350	$2.37	24d	1	0.68mi
172 Sussex I Unit I West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,500	$2.63	24d	1	0.68mi
176 Sussex I Unit I West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,400	$2.46	24d	1	0.68mi
4 Sussex a West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	615	$1,350	$2.20	14d	1	0.68mi
166 Sussex I Unit I West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,500	$2.63	24d	1	0.68mi
6516 Morgan Hill Trl #1809 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1086	$2,050	$1.89	2d	1	0.70mi
179 Canterbury H West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	798	$1,200	$1.50	1d	1	0.72mi
179 Canterbury H Unit H West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	798	$1,200	$1.50	24d	1	0.72mi
188 Cambridge H Unit H West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	684	$1,345	$1.97	5d	1	0.72mi
204 Canterbury I Unit I West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,350	$2.37	24d	1	0.73mi
201 Canterbury I Unit I West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,250	$2.19	24d	1	0.73mi
50 Canterbury B West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	774	$1,250	$1.61	13d	1	0.73mi
1 Canterbury A Unit A West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	798	$1,595	$2.00	24d	1	0.73mi
175 Canterbury H #175 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,250	$2.19	14d	1	0.73mi
3130 N Jog Rd West Palm Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1145	$2,418	$2.11	2d	19	0.74mi
210 Canterbury E Unit 1 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,375	$2.41	12d	1	0.76mi
11 Cambridge E Unit 11 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	684	$1,500	$2.19	24d	1	0.76mi
2905 Hidden Hills Rd #2203 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1086	$2,100	$1.93	24d	1	0.78mi
17 Cambridge a West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	684	$1,200	$1.75	24d	1	0.78mi
49 Cambridge B Unit B West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	684	$1,350	$1.97	3d	1	0.78mi
49 Cambridge B Unit B West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	684	$1,450	$2.12	24d	1	0.78mi
245 Northampton M West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	798	$1,700	$2.13	5d	1	0.81mi
79 Dorchester E Unit 79 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	798	$1,500	$1.88	24d	1	0.81mi
243 Northampton M Unit M West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,400	$2.46	7d	1	0.81mi
145 Dorchester E Unit 145 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	646	$1,300	$2.01	7d	1	0.82mi
235 Northampton L #235 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	615	$1,300	$2.11	10d	1	0.84mi
333 Northampton Q Unit 333 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,300	$2.28	24d	1	0.85mi
51 Dorchester E Unit 51 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	570	$1,400	$2.46	24d	1	0.86mi
144 Dorchester G West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	798	$1,700	$2.13	10d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $403 · $4,836/yr
• Likely covers: security
• ⚠ Special-assessment mentions:

  …refrigerator, range, microwave, and dishwasher. The washer and dryer were also replaced in 2024. Owner has paid the special assessment in full. Ready for a quick closing. Rental Restriction: Must own the unit for a minimum of one (1) year prior to…

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-14
   price $209,000
3. 2026-02-11
   listed $215,000 Active
4. 2024-09-24
   historical $1,875
5. 2024-09-23
   historical
6. 2024-09-08
   price $1,875
7. 2024-08-29
   historical $1,975
8. 2024-08-28
   listed $1,975
9. 2024-08-22
   listed $1,975
10. 2024-08-22
    historical $1,975
11. 2024-08-22
    listed $1,975
12. 2024-08-19
    price $219,000
13. 2024-08-02
    price $222,000
14. 2024-07-29
    status Active
15. 2024-07-28
    status Pending
16. 2024-05-17
    status Active
17. 2024-04-13
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2024-04-10
    price $223,000
19. 2024-03-29
    price $226,000
20. 2024-03-19
    price $229,000
21. 2024-02-18
    price $235,000
22. 2024-02-06
    listed $240,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,246 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,246 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$4,246
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,737
• − Management: −$1,737
• − HOA: −$4,836
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$9,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,322
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — West Palm Beach

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #1255

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Palm Beach, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 222,012
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 76,863
• Household income: $92,591
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1870.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 6% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.04%
• Current HPI: 903.78
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.9% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $209,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $215,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-09-24 Rental Removed $1,875 RMLSFL
• 2024-09-23 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2024-09-08 Price Changed $1,875 RMLSFL
• 2024-08-29 Rental Removed $1,975 GFLMLS
• 2024-08-28 Listed for Rent $1,975 GFLMLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed for Rent $1,975 RMLSFL
• 2024-08-22 Rental Removed $1,975 GFLMLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed for Rent $1,975 GFLMLS
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $219,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-08-02 Price Changed $222,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-07-29 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2024-07-28 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2024-05-17 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2024-04-13 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $223,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-03-29 Price Changed $226,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-03-19 Price Changed $229,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-02-18 Price Changed $235,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-02-06 Listed $240,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,246 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.