8838 Ginko Run · Ruskin, FL 34219

$274,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,691 sqft · Land · 35 Days on market

Built 2025 1,980 sqft lot $159/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome to the Lakewood, a thoughtfully designed 1,691 square foot townhome that offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. Featuring three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a convenient powder room, and a one-car garage, this home is ideal for modern living. Step inside to an inviting open-concept main floor that seamlessly integrates the kitchen, dining, and great room areas—perfect for entertaining or everyday life. The L-shaped kitchen is a chef’s delight, boasting quartz countertops, a walk-in pantry, and a generous island with a flush breakfast bar that comfortably seats four. Just beyond the great room, glass sliders lead to a covered l

Key facts

• Generous island
• L-shaped kitchen
• Storage closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN FLOOR
• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• GENEROUS ISLAND
• COVERED LANAI
• STORAGE CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD applies
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $159 (total annual $1,908); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee $144; additional monthly fee $15); Association includes pool and grounds maintenance; Community features: gated, pool, playground, pickleball court(s), dog park, sidewalks, street lights, deed restrictions; Association names: Julie Jenson; Crosswind Community Association, Inc.

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Cable available; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-06-01); East-facing
• Construction: Block, stucco, and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: Mattamy Homes (Lakewood Modern model); Builder license CGC1524054
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Fl. friendly/native landscaping; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths, 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (washer hookup); Laundry inside on upper level

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $267k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $266,740 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.48%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-42,496
• Equity at exit: $41,002

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-55,170
• Equity at exit: $23,776

Cash invested: $76,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,809 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$159
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,607

Max offer price $274,990

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,748
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8850 Ginko Run Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,600	$1.54	15d	1	0.00mi
12484 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,600	$1.71	23d	1	0.75mi
12573 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,500	$1.65	3d	1	0.86mi
7148 Boggy Creek Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,929	$1.52	2d	1	1.07mi
10048 Big Marsh Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$2,825	$1.39	23d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $159 · $1,908/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $274,990 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $274,990 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $274,990 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-04-27
   listed $274,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,696
• − Management: −$2,696
• − HOA: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$2,500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$600
• After-tax cash flow: $2,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $274,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid