Riverdale Plan · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$318,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,838 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two-story | 3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | Flex Room | 2-Car Attached Garage

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $318,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Riverdale plan); Address: 10003 Rosette Dr, Manvel, TX 77583
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,838 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: New construction plan (Riverdale)

🏗️ New construction. The $318,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $335,927.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $319k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $277,839 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,927
• List price: $318,990
• Delta: -5.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10003 Agave Point Ct	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,838 (0%)	1mo	$320,000	$174	89
10010 Napier Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,941 (+6%)	1mo	$322,999	$166	84
10014 Agave Point Ct	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,910 (+4%)	2mo	$340,000	$178	83
10110 Palm Springs Pl	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+3%)	1mo	$339,000	$178	82
5243 Palo Verde Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,714 (-7%)	1mo	$319,990	$187	76
5114 Getty Ln	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,917 (+4%)	2mo	$373,214	$195	75
5306 Majestic Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,984 (+8%)	2mo	$449,900	$227	63
5231 Palo Verde Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+11%)	2mo	$359,990	$176	62
5247 Palo Verde Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+11%)	2mo	$345,990	$169	62
5111 Getty Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-11%)	3mo	$344,990	$212	62
5115 Getty Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,080 (+13%)	1mo	$375,000	$180	57
5030 Morrison Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,085 (+13%)	2mo	$389,990	$187	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-69,433
• Equity at exit: $50,088

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-97,876
• Equity at exit: $29,045

Cash invested: $94,059 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,778 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,762
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$420 /mo · $5,039/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,939

Max offer price $317,610

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $-11	+0% $-127	+5% $-243	+10% $-359
Rent	-10% $-346	-5% $-236	+0% $-127	+5% $-17	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $43	-0.5pp $-41	base $-127	+0.5pp $-214	+1.0pp $-302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,982
• Closing costs: $10,078
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9623 Wright Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2548	$3,600	$1.41	26d	1	0.34mi
9510 Turnstone Dr Arcola, TX	2.0	2.0	1892	$2,495	$1.32	1d	1	0.73mi
5714 Caracara St Arcola, TX	3.0	2.0	2518	$2,750	$1.09	4d	1	0.75mi
4143 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	45d	1	0.97mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	45d	1	1.04mi
4018 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$1,500	$0.79	9d	1	1.09mi
10539 Dolce Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2258	$2,391	$1.06	14d	1	1.15mi
3734 Bach St Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$2,800	$1.24	45d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $318,990 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $318,990 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $318,990 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $318,990 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $318,990 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $318,990 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $318,990 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $318,990 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $318,990 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $318,990 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $318,990 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $318,990 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $318,990 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $318,990 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $318,990 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $318,990 Active 70-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,817
• − Property taxes: −$5,039
• − Insurance: −$1,680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,667
• − Management: −$2,667
• − Depreciation: −$9,772
• Taxable loss: −$7,302
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,752
• After-tax cash flow: $233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal
• Both Replace worn-out flooring — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace worn-out flooring — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B