5299 Old US 41,s · Lake Park, GA 31636

$190,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,446 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1987 Est $204k · 7% under $120/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream townhome nestled on the shore of a breathtaking lake. This two story residence is an end unit and offer perfect blend of comfort, style and serene water front views from the great room and master bedroom. 3 spacious BRs and 2.5 baths. Open concept and French doors from living area and downstairs master BR have stunning views of the lake. 2 bedrooms upstairs with end bedroom views the lake Whether you are looking for a full time residence or a weekend escape do not miss your chance to live where every day feels like a getaway. Come enjoy the peaceful town of Lake Park. New Roof. Seller is related to the listing agent. DO NOT WALK ON THE UPSTAIRS BALCONY. IT IS BEING REP

Key facts

• Water front views
• French doors
• Great room

Tags

• WATER FRONT VIEWS
• GREAT ROOM
• FRENCH DOORS
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($457/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#119 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Park Elementary School (math 55% / reading 47%, grade C-, #244 of 1,228 statewide, top 20%, 643 students, 72% FRL); Lowndes Middle School (math 39% / reading 45%, grade D-, #126 of 470 statewide, top 28%, 840 students, 72% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 42% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $190k implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,184 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,886
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5299 Old US 41,s	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,446 (0%)	1mo	$187,500	$130	95
4819 Fernwood Dr	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,450 (+0%)	2mo	$219,900	$152	88
4815 Fernwood Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+10%)	9mo	$215,000	$136	66
4917 Diamond Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,581 (+9%)	13mo	$269,900	$171	64
6056 Valencia St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,490 (+3%)	10mo	$455,000	$305	62
4910 Ivandale Cir	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+6%)	2mo	$230,000	$150	54
4911 Ivandale Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+7%)	3mo	$224,900	$146	54
5037 Carriage Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,629 (+13%)	13mo	$220,000	$135	43
5530 Danieli Pl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-14%)	15mo	$154,900	$125	41
5481 S Old US Hwy. 41	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,648 (+14%)	9mo	$200,000	$121	40
5217 Field Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+10%)	14mo	$60,000	$38	38
5017 Carriage Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+11%)	20mo	$225,000	$141	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-28,367
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-21,593
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31636

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $856/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,604

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $92	+0% $38	+5% $-16	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-92	-5% $-27	+0% $38	+5% $103	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $86	base $38	+0.5pp $-11	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4901 Liberty Cir Lake Park, GA	3.0	2.5	1523	$1,600	$1.05	22d	1	0.17mi
5976 Seville Dr Lake Park, GA	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,050	$1.27	45d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $190,000
3. 2026-04-13
   listed $184,900 Active
4. 1993-07-09
   soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $856 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,748 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$892/yr (+$74/mo · 104.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$856
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$664
• After-tax cash flow: $1,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lake Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #8632

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,184

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.27%
• Current HPI: 205.6279
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+280.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $190,000 SGMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $184,900 SGMLS
• 1993-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2018): $856 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.