The Barton (147) Plan · Buda, TX 78610

$234,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,479 sqft · SingleFamily · 183 Days on market

Fair condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Barton's open concept kitchen, great room, and dining room make the perfect space to host guests. Retreat to one of the three bedrooms or loft upstairs after a long day.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Loft upstairs
• Dining room

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• THREE BEDROOMS
• LOFT UPSTAIRS

🏗️ New construction. The $234,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $355,658.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-747 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#339 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Camino Real El (math 22% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 782 students, 76% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1513 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 84% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.00%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,658
• List price: $234,990
• Delta: -33.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6601 Turner Coach Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,477 (-0%)	18mo	$350,575	$237	80
6401 Turner Coach Trl	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,463 (-1%)	17mo	$335,725	$229	78
13010 Barrister Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,497 (+1%)	17mo	$345,000	$230	71
6501 Night Chinook Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+9%)	4mo	$315,000	$195	70
6607 Mallord Brook Bnd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,497 (+1%)	16mo	$324,990	$217	70
12901 Brave Tenderfoot Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+1%)	14mo	$355,530	$237	68
13001 Cerulean Spring Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+1%)	4mo	$324,990	$217	59
6415 Turner Coach Trl	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+14%)	14mo	$369,990	$219	53
6411 Turner Coach Trl	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+14%)	15mo	$359,990	$213	52
6407 Turner Coach Trl	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+14%)	15mo	$364,990	$216	52
6402 Turner Coach Trl	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+14%)	14mo	$359,490	$213	50
6514 Dragride Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+14%)	17mo	$377,120	$223	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-111,524
• Equity at exit: $53,030

10-year hold

• IRR: -70.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-182,772
• Equity at exit: $30,751

Cash invested: $99,584 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 29.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $324,990 ($209/sqft)
• Median days on market: 168 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +15.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1513
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,166 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$445 /mo · $5,335/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-747

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,111

Max offer price $247,563

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-501	-5% $-624	+0% $-747	+5% $-870	+10% $-993
Rent	-10% $-918	-5% $-833	+0% $-747	+5% $-661	+10% $-576
Rate	-1.0pp $-568	-0.5pp $-657	base $-747	+0.5pp $-839	+1.0pp $-933

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,915
• Closing costs: $10,670
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12309 Dairywork Rd Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,300	$1.36	139d	1	0.24mi
13013 Barrister Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,050	$1.29	139d	1	0.27mi
13107 Barrister Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,200	$1.38	139d	1	0.29mi
13101 Brave Tenderfoot Trl Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1699	$2,300	$1.35	24d	1	0.31mi
12809 Village Spun Plz Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,000	$1.14	119d	1	0.36mi
3511 Turner Village Dr Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1798	$1,950	$1.08	82d	1	0.41mi
11709 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1325	$1,899	$1.43	40d	1	1.03mi
11633 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,995	$1.32	139d	1	1.06mi
11629 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,175	$1.50	40d	1	1.06mi
11629 Lago de Garda Dr Unit NA Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	58d	1	1.06mi
11617 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,999	$1.27	40d	1	1.09mi
11620 Comano Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,600	$1.68	100d	1	1.10mi
11616 Comano Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,350	$1.34	40d	1	1.11mi
11913 Ellena Cv Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$1,995	$1.36	75d	1	1.15mi
11913 Ellena Cv Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$1,995	$1.36	74d	1	1.15mi
12013 Russo Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,095	$1.37	78d	1	1.18mi
12013 Russo Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,095	$1.37	82d	1	1.18mi
11905 Murano Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$2,195	$1.50	56d	1	1.18mi
11416 Milano Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$2,050	$1.21	139d	1	1.22mi
11701 Domenico Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,995	$1.32	112d	1	1.25mi
5637 Respinto Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,600	$1.72	10d	1	1.26mi
5705 Respinto Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,150	$1.40	116d	1	1.26mi
5604 Respinto Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,920	$1.33	99d	1	1.27mi
5612 Respinto Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,275	$1.48	10d	1	1.27mi
11612 Domenico Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,400	$1.44	113d	1	1.28mi
11601 Domenico Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,100	$1.45	85d	1	1.29mi
5712 Respinto Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,100	$1.39	10d	1	1.30mi
4907 Escape Rivera Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$2,350	$1.37	113d	1	1.31mi
11300 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,195	$1.29	10d	1	1.33mi
11513 Murano Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$2,100	$1.43	139d	1	1.34mi
4910 Warm Wassail Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1714	$2,350	$1.37	40d	1	1.35mi
11301 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$2,150	$1.49	71d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $234,990 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $234,990 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $234,990 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $234,990 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $234,990 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $234,990 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $234,990 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $249,990 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $249,990 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $249,990 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $249,990 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $249,990 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $249,990 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 162 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 159 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $249,990 Active 158 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $249,990 Active 157 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    pricedays on market $249,990 Active 156 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $269,990 Active 155 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $269,990 Active 153 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $269,990 Active 152 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $269,990 Active 151 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $269,990 Active 150 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $269,990 Active 149 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $269,990 Active 148 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $269,990 Active 147 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $269,990 Active 146 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $269,990 Active 145 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $269,990 Active 144 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $269,990 Active 143 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $269,990 Active 142 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $269,990 Active 141 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $269,990 Active 139 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $269,990 Active 138 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $269,990 Active 137 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $269,990 Active 136 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $269,990 Active 134 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $269,990 Active 133 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $269,990 Active 132 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 131 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 128 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $269,990 Active 126 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $269,990 Active 125 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $269,990 Active 123 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $269,990 Active 121 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $269,990 Active 120 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $269,990 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,922
• − Property taxes: −$5,335
• − Insurance: −$1,778
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,079
• − Management: −$2,079
• − Depreciation: −$10,346
• Taxable loss: −$15,552
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,733
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $36,975–$66,555 screening

The Barton Plan requires moderate renovations, focusing on painting and updating the kitchen to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Needs touch-up

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Improves living space and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts more buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Camino Real El F TX #3,492/4,322 Nat'l #33,016/41,679 Middle R C Barton Middle B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Moe And Gene Johnson H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Buda

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #339
• US rank: #7407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 1,545,133 people
• City population: 48,319
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Listed $259,990 Zillow