The Barton (147) Plan · Austin, TX 78610

$279,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,479 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

Fair condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Barton's open concept kitchen, great room, and dining room make the perfect space to host guests. Retreat to one of the three bedrooms or loft upstairs after a long day.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Loft upstairs
• Dining room

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• THREE BEDROOMS
• LOFT UPSTAIRS

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $355,891.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-748 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1002 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,686 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.00%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,891
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -21.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6601 Turner Coach Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,477 (-0%)	15mo	$350,575	$237	83
6401 Turner Coach Trl	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,463 (-1%)	14mo	$335,725	$229	81
6501 Night Chinook Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+9%)	0mo	$315,000	$195	73
13010 Barrister Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,497 (+1%)	14mo	$345,000	$230	73
6607 Mallord Brook Bnd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,497 (+1%)	13mo	$324,990	$217	73
12901 Brave Tenderfoot Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+1%)	11mo	$355,530	$237	70
13001 Cerulean Spring Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+1%)	1mo	$324,990	$217	62
6415 Turner Coach Trl	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+14%)	11mo	$369,990	$219	56
6411 Turner Coach Trl	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+14%)	12mo	$359,990	$213	55
6407 Turner Coach Trl	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+14%)	12mo	$364,990	$216	54
6402 Turner Coach Trl	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+14%)	11mo	$359,490	$213	53
6514 Dragride Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+14%)	14mo	$377,120	$223	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-111,606
• Equity at exit: $53,065

10-year hold

• IRR: -70.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-182,911
• Equity at exit: $30,771

Cash invested: $99,650 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1002
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,866
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$445 /mo · $5,338/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-748

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,113

Max offer price $247,703

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,973
• Closing costs: $10,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12309 Dairywork Rd Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,300	$1.36	44d	1	0.24mi
13013 Barrister Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,050	$1.29	44d	1	0.27mi
13107 Barrister Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,200	$1.38	44d	1	0.29mi
12809 Village Spun Plz Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,000	$1.14	24d	1	0.36mi
11633 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,995	$1.32	44d	1	1.06mi
11620 Comano Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,600	$1.68	4d	1	1.10mi
11416 Milano Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$2,050	$1.21	44d	1	1.22mi
11701 Domenico Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,995	$1.32	16d	1	1.25mi
5705 Respinto Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,150	$1.40	20d	1	1.26mi
5604 Respinto Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,920	$1.33	3d	1	1.27mi
11612 Domenico Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,400	$1.44	18d	1	1.28mi
4907 Escape Rivera Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$2,350	$1.37	18d	1	1.31mi
11513 Murano Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$2,100	$1.43	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $279,990 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-03-31
    price $249,990 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    The Barton's open concept kitchen, great room, and dining room make the perfect space to host guests. Retreat to one of the three bedrooms or loft upstairs after a long day.

15. 2026-03-25
    listed $259,990 Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    The Barton's open concept kitchen, great room, and dining room make the perfect space to host guests. Retreat to one of the three bedrooms or loft upstairs after a long day.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,935
• − Property taxes: −$5,338
• − Insurance: −$1,779
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − Depreciation: −$10,353
• Taxable loss: −$15,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,735
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

The Barton Plan requires moderate renovations, focusing on painting and updating the kitchen to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Needs touch-up

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace flooring — Improves living space and adds value
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts more buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Needs touch-up	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Improves living space and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts more buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Listed $259,990 Zillow