13941 Smokey Hollow Rd · Northport, AL 35475

$249,650

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1981 0.47 ac lot $168/sqft · 32% below area Est $369k · 32% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME to this well-maintained 4 BEDROOM/2 BATH HOME in Huntington and Tuscaloosa County High School ZONE! Home features an open-concept living space with a generous family room, kitchen bar and dining area perfect for entertaining. All stainless-steel appliances as well as the washer and dryer will remain with the home. A large laundry room/pantry area offers additional storage. The primary suite is spacious, and the additional 3 bedrooms ensure flexibility for guests, a possible home-office or extra space for a growing family. With laminate flooring, ceramic tile throughout the home, new windows, new doors, and a NEW ROOF this home checks all the boxes! Don't miss this opportunity to make this home yours! Schedule your showing today!!

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Northport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#8 in AL, #2,686 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 241 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 45% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,840 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.48%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,508
• List price: $249,650
• Delta: -32.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11297 Ash Rd	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,500 (+1%)	10mo	$105,000	$70	81
11325 Ash Rd	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,414 (-5%)	1mo	$99,000	$70	80
11291 Kindling Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-13%)	6mo	$274,900	$211	62
4511 Goldenrod Way	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,497 (+0%)	19mo	$272,400	$182	48
11466 Forest Glen Blvd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,685 (+13%)	18mo	$325,000	$193	22
4519 Goldenrod Way	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-15%)	20mo	$270,400	$213	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-35,042
• Equity at exit: $37,224

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-23,803
• Equity at exit: $21,585

Cash invested: $69,902 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35475

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,309
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,328/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,929

Max offer price $249,650

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $157	+0% $86	+5% $16	+10% $-55
Rent	-10% $-75	-5% $6	+0% $86	+5% $167	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $150	base $86	+0.5pp $22	+1.0pp $-44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,412
• Closing costs: $7,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,650 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,650 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,650 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,650 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,650 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,650 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,650 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,650 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,650 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,650 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $249,650 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    price $249,900 747-char remark

    Show marketing remark (747 chars)

    WELCOME to this well-maintained 4 BEDROOM/2 BATH HOME in Huntington and Tuscaloosa County High School ZONE! Home features an open-concept living space with a generous family room, kitchen bar and dining area perfect for entertaining. All stainless-steel appliances as well as the washer and dryer will remain with the home. A large laundry room/pantry area offers additional storage. The primary suite is spacious, and the additional 3 bedrooms ensure flexibility for guests, a possible home-office or extra space for a growing family. With laminate flooring, ceramic tile throughout the home, new windows, new doors, and a NEW ROOF this home checks all the boxes! Don't miss this opportunity to make this home yours! Schedule your showing today!!

18. 2026-04-20
    price $258,900 747-char remark

    Show marketing remark (747 chars)

    WELCOME to this well-maintained 4 BEDROOM/2 BATH HOME in Huntington and Tuscaloosa County High School ZONE! Home features an open-concept living space with a generous family room, kitchen bar and dining area perfect for entertaining. All stainless-steel appliances as well as the washer and dryer will remain with the home. A large laundry room/pantry area offers additional storage. The primary suite is spacious, and the additional 3 bedrooms ensure flexibility for guests, a possible home-office or extra space for a growing family. With laminate flooring, ceramic tile throughout the home, new windows, new doors, and a NEW ROOF this home checks all the boxes! Don't miss this opportunity to make this home yours! Schedule your showing today!!

19. 2026-04-08
    listed $259,900 Active 747-char remark

    Show marketing remark (747 chars)

    WELCOME to this well-maintained 4 BEDROOM/2 BATH HOME in Huntington and Tuscaloosa County High School ZONE! Home features an open-concept living space with a generous family room, kitchen bar and dining area perfect for entertaining. All stainless-steel appliances as well as the washer and dryer will remain with the home. A large laundry room/pantry area offers additional storage. The primary suite is spacious, and the additional 3 bedrooms ensure flexibility for guests, a possible home-office or extra space for a growing family. With laminate flooring, ceramic tile throughout the home, new windows, new doors, and a NEW ROOF this home checks all the boxes! Don't miss this opportunity to make this home yours! Schedule your showing today!!

20. 2025-07-07
    status Pending
21. 2025-07-02
    listed $239,900 Active
22. 2023-03-14
    soldstatus $225,000
23. 2023-03-08
    soldstatus $225,000 Closed
24. 2023-02-06
    status Pending
25. 2023-01-26
    listed $225,000 Active
26. 2022-06-27
    soldstatus $212,900
27. 2022-06-17
    soldstatus $212,900
28. 2022-05-06
    listed $212,900
29. 2015-06-26
    soldstatus $106,779
30. 2015-06-25
    soldstatus $95,000
31. 2015-02-18
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 45% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,984
• − Property taxes: −$1,328
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$7,263
• Taxable loss: −$3,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$786
• After-tax cash flow: $1,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Northport

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #2686

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 47,464
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 20,745
• Household income: $108,559
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 49.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.83%
• Current HPI: 228.4417
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+150.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $249,900 WAMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $258,900 WAMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $259,900 WAMLS
• 2025-07-07 Pending — WAMLS
• 2025-07-02 Listed $239,900 WAMLS
• 2023-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-08 Sold (MLS) $225,000 WAMLS
• 2023-02-06 Pending — WAMLS
• 2023-01-26 Listed $225,000 WAMLS
• 2022-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $212,900 Public Records
• 2022-06-17 Sold (MLS) $212,900 WAMLS
• 2022-05-06 Listed $212,900 WAMLS
• 2015-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $106,779 Public Records
• 2015-06-25 Sold (MLS) $95,000 WAMLS
• 2015-02-18 Listed $99,900 WAMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,328 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.