8623 Quail Hills Dr · Houston, TX 77489

$195,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,649 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1978 7,148 sqft lot $118/sqft · 16% below area Est $233k · 16% under $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

** Reduction to account for personal touches ** Charming, bright, open floorplan. Beautiful entry opens to large spacious family room with cozy corner fireplace and high ceilings. Nice formal dining room, perfect for hosting holiday family dinners. Great kitchen with eat-in bar and separate breakfast area. Large master and secondary bedrooms. New luxury wood plank vinyl flooring in entry, hallway, and bedrooms. Large tiles in living areas and kitchen Backyard pergola and fenced yard. Attached swing double-car garage offers additional garage and driveway spacing. Appliances to remain in home. Community parks with walking trails nearby. Close to shopping, dining, and entertainment options. Welcome home!

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Fenced yard
• Open floorplan

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• COZY CORNER FIREPLACE
• EAT-IN BAR
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• BACKYARD PERGOLA
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($681/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edgar Glover Jr El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 380 students, 87% FRL); Missouri City Middle (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 963 students, 88% FRL); Thurgood Marshall H S (math 11% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,542 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 35% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 188 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $273 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.25%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,826
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -16.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1410 Gentle Bend Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-1%)	1mo	$244,900	$150	75
16718 Running Quail Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+2%)	1mo	$235,000	$139	74
16610 Quail Prairie Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-0%)	4mo	$239,500	$146	74
1222 New Tree Ln	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,644 (-0%)	3mo	$169,900	$103	69
1223 Gentle Bend Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,693 (+3%)	3mo	$249,900	$148	63
2603 Lazy Spring Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-10%)	3mo	$230,000	$155	62
8434 Quail Crest Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-5%)	3mo	$239,500	$154	59
16711 Running Quail Ct	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-9%)	3mo	$210,000	$140	57
2507 Rittenmore Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-5%)	1mo	$235,000	$150	50
2211 N Heatherwood Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,805 (+10%)	5mo	$268,900	$149	48
2422 Doverglen Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,848 (+12%)	1mo	$249,000	$135	48
2435 Buttonhill Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-14%)	3mo	$195,000	$137	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-12,070
• Equity at exit: $51,308

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,149
• Equity at exit: $57,579

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,956 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,206/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,884

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $112	+0% $57	+5% $2	+10% $-54
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-21	+0% $57	+5% $134	+10% $211
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $106	base $57	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	45d	1	0.42mi
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	14d	1	0.57mi
712 Beechbend Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,250	$1.00	22d	1	0.68mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	14d	1	0.79mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	0.89mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	22d	1	0.95mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	7d	1	1.08mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	1.10mi
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	21d	1	1.21mi
507 Whippoorwill Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1970	$1,925	$0.98	45d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $195,000 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    ** Reduction to account for personal touches ** Charming, bright, open floorplan. Beautiful entry opens to large spacious family room with cozy corner fireplace and high ceilings. Nice formal dining room, perfect for hosting holiday family dinners. Great kitchen with eat-in bar and separate breakfast area. Large master and secondary bedrooms. New luxury wood plank vinyl flooring in entry, hallway, and bedrooms. Large tiles in living areas and kitchen Backyard pergola and fenced yard. Attached swing double-car garage offers additional garage and driveway spacing. Appliances to remain in home. Community parks with walking trails nearby. Close to shopping, dining, and entertainment options. Welcome home!

15. 2026-04-06
    listed $208,000 Active 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    ** Reduction to account for personal touches ** Charming, bright, open floorplan. Beautiful entry opens to large spacious family room with cozy corner fireplace and high ceilings. Nice formal dining room, perfect for hosting holiday family dinners. Great kitchen with eat-in bar and separate breakfast area. Large master and secondary bedrooms. New luxury wood plank vinyl flooring in entry, hallway, and bedrooms. Large tiles in living areas and kitchen Backyard pergola and fenced yard. Attached swing double-car garage offers additional garage and driveway spacing. Appliances to remain in home. Community parks with walking trails nearby. Close to shopping, dining, and entertainment options. Welcome home!

16. 2004-05-24
    soldstatus
17. 2003-10-31
    historical
18. 2003-08-31
    listed $99,900
19. 1995-10-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,206 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,206 · $350/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$4,206
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,470
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$593
• After-tax cash flow: $1,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+95.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $208,000 HARMLS
• 2004-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-08-31 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 1995-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,206 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.