12193 Lookout Loop Unit F03-01 · Truckee, CA 96161

$17,500

4 bd · None ba · 2,985 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

$6/sqft · 10% below area Est $19k · 10% under $869/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy this recently updated 4-bedroom Cabin nestled in the heart of Old Greenwood, offering a unique shared ownership opportunity. Your ownership includes Winter week 1 (Early January) for your primary use, as well as rotating mid-week and flex-week reservations. This cabin boasts a thoughtfully designed layout with two primary bedrooms on the main level, complemented by an inviting upstairs loft, spacious bunk room, upstairs suite, and a versatile office featuring a convenientMurphy bed. The perfect blend of comfort and functionality. As an owner, you'll relish in preferred access to two championship golf courses at the Tahoe Mountain Club, ensuring that every moment of your stay is filled with leisure and luxury. Enjoy complimentary shuttle service to Northstar resort and unwind in the two private members' lounges in the Village and MidMountain, enhancing your 4-season club ownership experience. The on-site Pavilion offers a world-class facility with a pool and gym, providing entertainment and relaxation for all. Owners also enjoy the flexibility of booking available time, allowing for spontaneous reservations at no additional cost.

Key facts

• Upstairs loft
• Murphy bed
• Versatile office

Tags

• TWO PRIMARY BEDROOMS
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• SPACIOUS BUNK ROOM
• UPSTAIRS SUITE
• VERSATILE OFFICE
• MURPHY BED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($63k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $16k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 366.2% vs local median 2.0% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,898/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($132k/yr) (locally 559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $121 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $525 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $16,450 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 45.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 366.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 1285.56%
• DSCR: 58.20
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $19,364
• List price: $17,500
• Delta: -9.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12278 Frontier Trl Unit F24-07	0.10mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	3mo	$21,000	$7	93
12258 Lookout Loop Unit F23-07	0.09mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	8mo	$25,000	$8	89
12339 Lookout Loop Unit F11-13	0.16mi	4/4.5	2,895 (-3%)	4mo	$15,000	$5	85
12622 Lookout Loop Unit F44-11	0.34mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	4mo	$16,000	$5	81
12339 Lookout Loop Unit F11-36	0.15mi	4/4.5	2,895 (-3%)	9mo	$18,000	$6	81
12445 Lookout Loop Unit F16-26	0.25mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	11mo	$35,000	$12	79
12540 Gold Rush Trl Unit F40-01	0.36mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	6mo	$12,000	$4	79
12508 Trappers Trl Unit F35-36	0.29mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	10mo	$13,000	$4	78
12403 Lookout Loop Unit F14-01	0.21mi	4/4.5	2,895 (-3%)	8mo	$10,000	$3	78
12508 Trappers Trl Unit F35-26	0.29mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	10mo	$33,000	$11	78
12458 Lookout Loop Unit F36-32	0.29mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,740 (-8%)	9mo	$17,500	$6	60
12382 Caleb Dr	0.38mi	4/3.5	3,405 (+14%)	9mo	$2,750,000	$808	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 74.82×
• Total profit: $361,708
• Equity at exit: $2,609

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 180.33×
• Total profit: $878,720
• Equity at exit: $1,513

Cash invested: $4,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96161

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,898 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$92
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$22 /mo · $262/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$869
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,659
• Net cashflow: $5,249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,253

Max offer price $17,500

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,375
• Closing costs: $525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10175 Annies Loop Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2194	$7,500	$3.42	43d	1	1.22mi
10077 Jake S Way Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2552	$10,500	$4.11	43d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $869 · $10,428/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $17,500 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $17,500 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $17,500 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $17,500 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $17,500 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $17,500 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $17,500 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $17,500 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $17,500 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $17,500 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $17,500 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $17,500 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $17,500 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $17,500 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $17,500 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-03-28
    listed $17,500 Active 1152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1152 chars)

    Enjoy this recently updated 4-bedroom Cabin nestled in the heart of Old Greenwood, offering a unique shared ownership opportunity. Your ownership includes Winter week 1 (Early January) for your primary use, as well as rotating mid-week and flex-week reservations. This cabin boasts a thoughtfully designed layout with two primary bedrooms on the main level, complemented by an inviting upstairs loft, spacious bunk room, upstairs suite, and a versatile office featuring a convenientMurphy bed. The perfect blend of comfort and functionality. As an owner, you'll relish in preferred access to two championship golf courses at the Tahoe Mountain Club, ensuring that every moment of your stay is filled with leisure and luxury. Enjoy complimentary shuttle service to Northstar resort and unwind in the two private members' lounges in the Village and MidMountain, enhancing your 4-season club ownership experience. The on-site Pavilion offers a world-class facility with a pool and gym, providing entertainment and relaxation for all. Owners also enjoy the flexibility of booking available time, allowing for spontaneous reservations at no additional cost.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $94,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$980
• − Property taxes: −$262
• − Insurance: −$88
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,582
• − Management: −$7,582
• − HOA: −$10,428
• − Depreciation: −$509
• Taxable income: $67,343
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,162
• After-tax cash flow: $46,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoe-Truckee Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,136
• Composite: 44.38/100
• National rank: #2816
• State rank: #136 of 517 in CA

Livability — Truckee

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #21110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truckee, CA
• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 19,634
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,634
• Household income: $131,702
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.87%
• Current HPI: 336.9632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $17,500 TSMLS