21730 Gambier Pl · Lexington Park, MD 20653

$244,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1945 6,370 sqft lot $223/sqft · 14% above area Est $215k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.2/15.0

Key facts

• 6,370 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Not in a federal flood zone; Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water
• Home design: Detached property; Bay/Bow windows
• Construction: Cement siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Shingle roof; Built (year per assessor)
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Decorative fencing; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas oven/range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Tub shower; Ceiling fans; Dining area; Wood floors
• Laundry & utility: Washer in unit (basement); Dryer in unit (basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lexington Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#331 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lexington Park Elementary (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #201 of 860 statewide, top 25%, 398 students, 83% FRL); Spring Ridge Middle (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #81 of 225 statewide, top 38%, 987 students, 60% FRL); Great Mills High (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,779 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 28% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 94 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,861 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.02%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,030
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: 13.89%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21684 Saratoga Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,100 (0%)	12mo	$190,000	$173	75
21676 N Essex Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,100 (0%)	17mo	$190,000	$173	75
21722 Cabot Pl	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,100 (0%)	14mo	$275,000	$250	74
46446 Midway Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,100 (0%)	10mo	$235,500	$214	64
46468 Midway Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,100 (0%)	24mo	$182,000	$165	58
46436 Franklin Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-2%)	23mo	$235,000	$218	48
22024 Fox Ridge Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+7%)	8mo	$340,000	$289	47
46460 Franklin Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,170 (+6%)	23mo	$215,000	$184	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-34,003
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-36,229
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20653

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,470/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,910

Max offer price $244,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $242	+0% $173	+5% $103	+10% $34
Rent	-10% $5	-5% $89	+0% $173	+5% $257	+10% $341
Rate	-1.0pp $296	-0.5pp $235	base $173	+0.5pp $109	+1.0pp $45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $244,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $244,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $244,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $244,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $259,000 Active
18. 2023-07-11
    historical
19. 2023-06-09
    listed $160,000 Active
20. 2023-05-19
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,470 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,069 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$600/yr (+$50/mo · 40.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$1,470
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,043
• − Management: −$2,043
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$2,080
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$499
• After-tax cash flow: $2,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lexington Park

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #17418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington Park, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 26,852
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 26,852
• Household income: $103,048
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1571.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 28% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.67%
• Current HPI: 256.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+53.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $244,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $259,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-09 Listed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-19 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,470 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.