10109 Chesterfield Dr · Houston, TX 77051

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 238 Days on market

Built 1955 5,998 sqft lot $127/sqft · 23% below area Est $181k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

10109 Chesterfield Dr is located in Blueridge subdivision in Harris County. Scroll to see the property features, tax value, mortgage calculator, nearby schools. Don’t miss out on a grate opportunity to call this your home.

Key facts

• 5,998 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 238 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($651/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,447/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.66%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,974
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -22.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10205 Sierra Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,151 (+4%)	3mo	$120,000	$104	82
10006 Chesterfield Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,170 (+6%)	3mo	$125,000	$107	80
3138 Sunbeam St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,091 (-1%)	7mo	$109,900	$101	76
3334 Dulcrest St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,122 (+2%)	3mo	$90,000	$80	76
10209 Cathedral Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,244 (+13%)	3mo	$180,000	$145	67
10014 Sierra Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,243 (+13%)	2mo	$185,000	$149	66
10611 Leitrim Way	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,105 (+0%)	0mo	$159,900	$145	65
3034 Corksie St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,225 (+11%)	0mo	$219,900	$180	65
3018 Elpyco St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (+10%)	1mo	$187,000	$154	56
9321 Cathedral Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,204 (+9%)	4mo	$159,000	$132	53
10818 Carlton Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,246 (+13%)	2mo	$175,999	$141	45
11018 Long Gate	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,242 (+12%)	2mo	$130,000	$105	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $82,419
• Equity at exit: $126,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.27×
• Total profit: $245,905
• Equity at exit: $271,989

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,447 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,556/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,378

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	43d	1	0.28mi
4112 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	711	$700	$0.98	10d	1	0.46mi
9414 Heno St Unit 13 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	24d	1	0.51mi
4205 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	24d	1	0.52mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,280	$1.32	1d	5	0.78mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	18d	1	0.85mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	1d	1	0.87mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	2d	2	0.96mi
4326 Larkspur St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	16d	1	1.01mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	43d	1	1.05mi
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	43d	1	1.08mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	5d	1	1.31mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	43d	1	1.34mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	5d	1	1.37mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	14d	1	1.39mi
3137 W Bellfort Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,802	$1.55	43d	1	1.40mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-02-19
   price $140,000 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   10109 Chesterfield Dr is located in Blueridge subdivision in Harris County. Scroll to see the property features, tax value, mortgage calculator, nearby schools. Don’t miss out on a grate opportunity to call this your home.

2. 2026-02-06
   price $145,000 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   10109 Chesterfield Dr is located in Blueridge subdivision in Harris County. Scroll to see the property features, tax value, mortgage calculator, nearby schools. Don’t miss out on a grate opportunity to call this your home.

3. 2025-12-15
   price $150,000 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   10109 Chesterfield Dr is located in Blueridge subdivision in Harris County. Scroll to see the property features, tax value, mortgage calculator, nearby schools. Don’t miss out on a grate opportunity to call this your home.

4. 2025-11-26
   price $160,000 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   10109 Chesterfield Dr is located in Blueridge subdivision in Harris County. Scroll to see the property features, tax value, mortgage calculator, nearby schools. Don’t miss out on a grate opportunity to call this your home.

5. 2025-09-28
   listed $163,000 Active 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   10109 Chesterfield Dr is located in Blueridge subdivision in Harris County. Scroll to see the property features, tax value, mortgage calculator, nearby schools. Don’t miss out on a grate opportunity to call this your home.

6. 2024-07-23
   historical
7. 2024-07-01
   price $159,999
8. 2024-06-01
   listed $169,999 Active
9. 2024-06-01
   historical
10. 2024-05-04
    price $179,000
11. 2024-03-25
    listed $184,999 Active
12. 2023-01-17
    historical
13. 2022-12-26
    price $184,900
14. 2022-12-05
    price $209,000
15. 2022-11-08
    listed $220,000 Active
16. 2022-10-26
    historical
17. 2022-05-24
    historical
18. 2021-10-14
    listed $220,000 Active
19. 2020-12-29
    soldstatus
20. 2020-09-21
    soldstatus
21. 2020-07-29
    status Pending
22. 2020-07-28
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2020-07-22
    status Option Pending
24. 2020-06-01
    price $125,000
25. 2020-04-29
    price $130,000
26. 2020-03-20
    listed $136,000 Active
27. 2020-01-09
    soldstatus
28. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,556 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,556 · $296/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,556
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,389
• − Management: −$1,389
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,586
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$381
• After-tax cash flow: $1,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.9% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-28 Listed $163,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-01 Price Changed $159,999 HARMLS
• 2024-06-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-01 Listed $169,999 HARMLS
• 2024-05-04 Price Changed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-25 Listed $184,999 HARMLS
• 2023-01-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-12-26 Price Changed $184,900 HARMLS
• 2022-12-05 Price Changed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-08 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-26 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2022-05-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-10-14 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2020-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-07-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-07-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-01 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2020-04-29 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2020-03-20 Listed $136,000 HARMLS
• 2020-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,556 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.