78 Berlin St · Rochester, NY 14621

$60,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 964 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1900 5,016 sqft lot Est $75k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,016 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $753 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,455/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 2756% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.75%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $75,192
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
75 Mead St	0.35mi	2/1.0	988 (+2%)	8mo	$67,500	$68	73
79 Kohlman St	0.33mi	3/1.5 (+1)	940 (-2%)	0mo	$96,500	$103	73
50 Townsend St	0.44mi	3/1.5 (+1)	960 (-0%)	10mo	$117,000	$122	64
101 Rauber St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,025 (+6%)	2mo	$144,000	$140	59
201 Clifford Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	954 (-1%)	9mo	$55,000	$58	52
859 North St	0.60mi	2/1.0	879 (-9%)	8mo	$69,000	$78	51
81 Kosciusko St	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,053 (+9%)	9mo	$69,900	$66	50
95 Cleon St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,089 (+13%)	1mo	$83,000	$76	48
65 Kosciusko St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,097 (+14%)	3mo	$55,000	$50	43
280 Saint Casimir St	0.74mi	2/1.0	840 (-13%)	2mo	$165,000	$196	42
206 Lincoln St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (-8%)	10mo	$51,900	$58	42
1475 North St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+12%)	3mo	$136,740	$127	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $45,905
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.14×
• Total profit: $136,727
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14621

• Home prices YoY: -4.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,455 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $686/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $753

Break-even live

Break-even rent $502

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Maria St Unit 1 DN Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	43d	1	0.35mi
144 Avenue C Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	613	$1,050	$1.71	21d	1	0.76mi
493 Hollenbeck St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	936	$1,275	$1.36	14d	1	0.82mi
25 Trust St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1003	$1,600	$1.60	3d	1	0.85mi
76 Avenue A Unit Up Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	796	$1,700	$2.14	43d	1	0.85mi
171 Mohawk St Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1054	$1,775	$1.68	43d	1	0.94mi
11 Renwood St Unit Dn Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	690	$1,095	$1.59	23d	1	1.01mi
200 Seth Green Dr Rochester, NY	1.0	1.0	517	$858	$1.66	43d	1	1.03mi
14-42 Seneca Manor Dr Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,120	$1.40	43d	1	1.03mi
— Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	896	$1,100	$1.23	13d	1	1.26mi
89 Twin Beeches Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1096	$1,250	$1.14	43d	1	1.26mi
84 Twin Beeches Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1096	$1,250	$1.14	23d	1	1.27mi
56 Brambury Dr Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	720	$1,425	$1.98	10d	1	1.30mi
216 Andrews St Rochester, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	43d	1	1.33mi
152 Gibbs St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	950	$1,875	$1.97	13d	3	1.34mi
21 Portland Ct Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,210	$1.42	43d	1	1.36mi
128 Gibbs St Unit 136 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	10d	1	1.37mi
128 Gibbs St Unit 130 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,875	$1.88	10d	1	1.37mi
224 Mill St Unit 4B Rochester, NY	1.0	1.0	923	$1,700	$1.84	14d	1	1.38mi
52 Lorimer St Unit 03 UP Rear Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	23d	1	1.42mi
1750 Hudson Ave Irondequoit, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	654	$1,900	$2.90	2d	4	1.42mi
80 St Paul St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1024	$1,935	$1.89	3d	3	1.43mi
14 Franklin St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$3,477	$2.59	3d	8	1.45mi
25 Franklin St Rochester, NY	1.0	1.0	720	$1,595	$2.22	2d	5	1.46mi
820 E Main St Unit 19 Rochester, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	14d	1	1.46mi
260 E Main St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$2,532	$2.21	3d	14	1.47mi
32 Portland Pkwy Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	652	$1,485	$2.28	2d	8	1.47mi
194 E Main St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,095	$2.39	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-10-28
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-05
   listed $60,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $686 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $850 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$164/yr (+$14/mo · 23.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$686
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,397
• − Management: −$1,397
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $8,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,057
• After-tax cash flow: $6,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,381
• Household income: $35,383
• Rent vs Own: 64.6% rent · 35.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2756.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% Black 40% White 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 32% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Asian/Pacific 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.66%
• Current HPI: 254.1805
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.88%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-28 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-10-05 Listed $60,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $686 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.