Kitson Plan · Splendora, TX 77328

$206,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,409 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $206,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,089.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $207k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-529 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenleaf El (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 797 students, 70% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 519 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,352 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.39%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,089
• List price: $206,990
• Delta: -23.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10938 Independence Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,459 (+4%)	0mo	$219,990	$151	88
10931 Independence Rd	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,459 (+4%)	9mo	$245,990	$169	80
10935 Independence Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-11%)	5mo	$219,990	$175	72
25984 Liberation Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (+13%)	7mo	$244,990	$154	63
11438 Crossno Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,410 (+0%)	6mo	$265,000	$188	63
25581 Rose Creek Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+5%)	3mo	$186,990	$127	55
10863 Autumn Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,561 (+11%)	4mo	$224,900	$144	54
10955 N Woods	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+3%)	18mo	$248,000	$170	52
25569 Rose Creek Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-11%)	4mo	$184,990	$147	45
25600 Rose Creek Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-11%)	4mo	$175,990	$140	44
25589 Rose Creek Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-11%)	7mo	$169,990	$135	42
25683 Walnut Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-15%)	9mo	$115,200	$96	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-77,410
• Equity at exit: $40,271

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-110,659
• Equity at exit: $23,352

Cash invested: $75,625 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.5 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $234,900 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 33 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77328

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 519
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,051/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,363

Max offer price $193,593

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-342	-5% $-435	+0% $-529	+5% $-622	+10% $-715
Rent	-10% $-662	-5% $-596	+0% $-529	+5% $-462	+10% $-395
Rate	-1.0pp $-393	-0.5pp $-460	base $-529	+0.5pp $-599	+1.0pp $-670

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,522
• Closing costs: $8,103
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11012 Patriot Ct Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,481	$0.97	119d	1	0.13mi
11032 Patriot Ct Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,466	$1.03	63d	1	0.19mi
11040 Patriot Ct Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,441	$0.87	29d	1	0.21mi
10699 Lost Maples Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,595	$1.13	101d	1	0.62mi
25507 Greenwood Canyon Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1950	$1,975	$1.01	0d	1	0.69mi
25568 Rose Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,700	$1.00	35d	1	0.70mi
25506 Rose Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,645	$0.99	85d	1	0.72mi
25585 Rose Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,750	$1.03	130d	1	0.75mi
25402 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,625	$1.04	135d	1	0.81mi
10547 Copper Ridge Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,455	$0.93	9d	1	0.83mi
25397 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,495	$1.06	22d	1	0.84mi
25432 Birch Hill Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	160d	1	0.85mi
25382 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,615	$1.14	99d	1	0.86mi
10519 Copper Ridge Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,495	$1.06	37d	1	0.86mi
10542 Copper Ridge Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,650	$1.05	10d	1	0.87mi
25381 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,650	$1.05	10d	1	0.87mi
25402 Redwood Ln Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	1d	1	0.88mi
25402 Redwood Ln Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	123d	1	0.88mi
25318 Shadowdale Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,655	$1.17	3d	1	0.89mi
25419 Birch Hill Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,099	$1.26	143d	1	0.89mi
10483 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,650	$1.05	10d	1	0.90mi
10479 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,655	$1.17	10d	1	0.90mi
10475 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,550	$0.99	37d	1	0.90mi
25365 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	184d	1	0.91mi
25310 Shadowdale Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,495	$1.06	10d	1	0.91mi
10490 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	165d	1	0.92mi
10506 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,450	$1.03	9d	1	0.92mi
25353 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,450	$1.03	0d	1	0.93mi
10453 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,545	$0.93	9d	1	0.94mi
10462 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,495	$1.06	10d	1	0.94mi
10482 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,575	$1.00	37d	1	0.95mi
10478 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	165d	1	0.95mi
10454 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,645	$0.99	95d	1	0.95mi
10474 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,575	$1.11	135d	1	0.95mi
10462 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	165d	1	0.96mi
10458 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,455	$0.93	9d	1	0.96mi
10454 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	146d	1	0.97mi
10446 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,495	$1.06	37d	1	0.97mi
10405 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,645	$0.99	113d	1	0.98mi
10387 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,830	$1.70	0d	1	0.99mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $206,990 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $206,990 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $206,990 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $206,990 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $206,990 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $206,990 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $206,990 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $206,990 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   pricedays on market $206,990 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $211,990 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $211,990 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $211,990 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $211,990 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $211,990 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $211,990 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $211,990 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $211,990 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $211,990 Active 3 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $211,990 Active 2 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on marketlisting id $211,990 Active 1 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $211,990 Active 130 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $211,990 Active 129 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $211,990 Active 128 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $211,990 Active 127 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $211,990 Active 126 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $211,990 Active 125 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $211,990 Active 124 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $211,990 Active 123 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $211,990 Active 122 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $211,990 Active 121 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $211,990 Active 120 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    price $211,990 Active 119 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $216,990 Active 119 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $216,990 Active 118 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $216,990 Active 117 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $216,990 Active 116 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $216,990 Active 115 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $216,990 Active 114 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $216,990 Active 113 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $216,990 Active 112 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $216,990 Active 111 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $216,990 Active 109 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $216,990 Active 108 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $216,990 Active 107 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $216,990 Active 106 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $216,990 Active 105 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $216,990 Active 104 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $216,990 Active 103 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $216,990 Active 102 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $216,990 Active 101 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,129
• − Property taxes: −$4,051
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − Depreciation: −$7,857
• Taxable loss: −$11,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,716
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,045–$21,135 screening

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and good condition. Minor exterior painting and landscaping maintenance would enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Trim and shrubbery maintenance — Keeps property looking well-maintained ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Greenleaf El F TX #2,927/4,322 Nat'l #29,439/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Jacinto County · 713,896 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,208
• Household income: $62,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms