Kitson Plan · Splendora, TX 77328

$216,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,409 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $216,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $275,272.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $217k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-523 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenleaf El (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 797 students, 70% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 464 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 50d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $174,620 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.14%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,272
• List price: $216,990
• Delta: -21.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10931 Independence Rd	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,459 (+4%)	8mo	$245,990	$169	81
10935 Independence Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-11%)	4mo	$219,990	$175	74
25984 Liberation Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (+13%)	5mo	$244,990	$154	64
26182 Morgan Cemetery Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+8%)	22mo	$218,500	$143	64
11438 Crossno Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,410 (+0%)	4mo	$265,000	$188	64
25581 Rose Creek Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+5%)	2mo	$186,990	$127	56
10863 Autumn Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,561 (+11%)	3mo	$224,900	$144	55
10955 N Woods	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+3%)	16mo	$248,000	$170	53
25569 Rose Creek Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-11%)	3mo	$184,990	$147	46
25600 Rose Creek Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-11%)	3mo	$175,990	$140	46
25589 Rose Creek Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-11%)	5mo	$169,990	$135	43
25683 Walnut Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-15%)	7mo	$115,200	$96	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-77,880
• Equity at exit: $41,044

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-110,589
• Equity at exit: $23,800

Cash invested: $77,076 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 25 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $231,900 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 47 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77328

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,746 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,444
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,129/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,408

Max offer price $199,616

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-333	-5% $-428	+0% $-523	+5% $-618	+10% $-713
Rent	-10% $-661	-5% $-592	+0% $-523	+5% $-454	+10% $-385
Rate	-1.0pp $-384	-0.5pp $-453	base $-523	+0.5pp $-594	+1.0pp $-667

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,818
• Closing costs: $8,258
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11012 Patriot Ct Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,481	$0.97	74d	1	0.13mi
11032 Patriot Ct Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,466	$1.03	18d	1	0.19mi
11040 Patriot Ct Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,866	$1.13	4d	1	0.21mi
10699 Lost Maples Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,595	$1.13	56d	1	0.62mi
25507 Greenwood Canyon Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1950	$1,875	$0.96	0d	1	0.69mi
25506 Rose Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,645	$0.99	40d	1	0.72mi
25585 Rose Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,750	$1.03	84d	1	0.75mi
25402 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,625	$1.04	90d	1	0.81mi
10547 Copper Ridge Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,665	$1.06	20d	1	0.83mi
25397 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,615	$1.14	25d	1	0.84mi
25432 Birch Hill Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	115d	1	0.85mi
25382 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,615	$1.14	54d	1	0.86mi
10519 Copper Ridge Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,655	$1.17	48d	1	0.86mi
25402 Redwood Ln Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	78d	1	0.88mi
25419 Birch Hill Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,099	$1.26	98d	1	0.89mi
10483 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,705	$1.09	3d	1	0.90mi
10475 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,665	$1.06	20d	1	0.90mi
25365 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	139d	1	0.91mi
25310 Shadowdale Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,655	$1.17	0d	1	0.91mi
10490 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	120d	1	0.92mi
10506 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,575	$1.11	46d	1	0.92mi
25353 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,615	$1.14	7d	1	0.93mi
10453 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,725	$1.04	6d	1	0.94mi
10462 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,655	$1.17	11d	1	0.94mi
10482 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,705	$1.09	20d	1	0.95mi
10478 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	120d	1	0.95mi
10454 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,645	$0.99	50d	1	0.95mi
10474 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,575	$1.11	90d	1	0.95mi
10462 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	120d	1	0.96mi
10458 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,625	$1.04	90d	1	0.96mi
10454 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	101d	1	0.97mi
10446 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,615	$1.14	33d	1	0.97mi
10405 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,645	$0.99	68d	1	0.98mi
10387 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,830	$1.70	4d	1	0.99mi
10414 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	139d	1	1.00mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $219,990

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2 parking spaces (2 garage spaces total)
• Home design: New construction plan called KitsonSingle-story (plan information)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,409Built as part of new construction inventory
• Exterior features: Located near Morgan Cemetery Road & Independence Road

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (plan: Kitson)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $216,990 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $216,990 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $216,990 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $216,990 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $216,990 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $216,990 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $216,990 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $216,990 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $216,990 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $216,990 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $216,990 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $216,990 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $216,990 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-09-12
    days on market $216,990 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $216,990 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $216,990 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $216,990 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $214,990 Active 82 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $214,990 Active 81 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $214,990 Active 80 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $214,990 Active 79 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $214,990 Active 78 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $214,990 Active 77 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $214,990 Active 76 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $214,990 Active 75 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $214,990 Active 74 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $214,990 Active 73 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $214,990 Active 72 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $214,990 Active 71 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $214,990 Active 70 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $214,990 Active 69 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $214,990 Active 68 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $214,990 Active 67 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $214,990 Active 66 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $214,990 Active 65 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $214,990 Active 64 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $214,990 Active 63 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $214,990 Active 62 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $214,990 Active 61 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $214,990 Active 60 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $214,990 Active 59 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $214,990 Active 57 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $214,990 Active 56 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $214,990 Active 55 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $214,990 Active 54 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $214,990 Active 51 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $214,990 Active 50 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $214,990 Active 49 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $214,990 Active 48 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $219,990 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,420
• − Property taxes: −$4,129
• − Insurance: −$1,376
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,676
• − Management: −$1,676
• − Depreciation: −$8,008
• Taxable loss: −$11,331
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,719
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,045–$21,135 screening

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and good condition. Minor exterior painting and landscaping maintenance would enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Trim and shrubbery maintenance — Keeps property looking well-maintained ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Greenleaf El F TX #2,927/4,322 Nat'l #29,439/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Jacinto County · 713,896 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,208
• Household income: $62,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $219,990

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2 parking spaces (2 garage spaces total)
• Home design: New construction plan called KitsonSingle-story (plan information)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,409Built as part of new construction inventory
• Exterior features: Located near Morgan Cemetery Road & Independence Road

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (plan: Kitson)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area