2818 Danbury Ln · Toms River, NJ 08755

$385,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,221 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 229 Days on market

Built 1996 6,098 sqft lot $315/sqft · 6% below area Est $407k · 6% under $227/mo HOA · 7% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE IMPROVEMENT!! Welcome to this immaculate move-in-ready two bedroom two full bathroom ranch offering easy, one level living in a vibrant gated community. This turnkey home features new decor, a brand new master bedroom carpet and charming French doors that fill the home with natural light. Enjoy an open and inviting layout with plenty of windows throughout. Located in a friendly, active adult community with fantastic amenities- clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis courts, bocci and plenty of social activities. You will love the lifestyle as much as the home itself. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, entertainment and major commuting routes. This home offers both comfort and convenience in one perfect package. Lake Ridge a wonderful development

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $350k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $336k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Joseph A. Citta Elementary School (math 13% / reading 38%, grade F, #851 of 1,303 statewide, top 66%, 483 students, 61% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,356/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($88k/yr) (locally 529% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $325k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $335,576 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $407,444
• List price: $385,000
• Delta: -5.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Sunnybrook Ln	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,287 (+5%)	2mo	$380,000	$295	67
3333 Deep River Ln	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,352 (+11%)	0mo	$425,000	$314	67
2386 Torrington Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,352 (+11%)	3mo	$380,000	$281	63
2 Winding River Rd	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	11mo	$430,000	$320	54
24 Deerchase Ln	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,287 (+5%)	22mo	$300,000	$233	45
6 Deerchase Ln	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,383 (+13%)	10mo	$370,000	$268	43
57 Deerchase Ln	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,383 (+13%)	8mo	$350,000	$253	40
2303 Logan Ct	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,340 (+10%)	23mo	$345,000	$257	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-74,985
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-81,051
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,356 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$445 /mo · $5,341/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$227
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$705
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,609

Max offer price $349,592

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18	-5% $-91	+0% $-200	+5% $-309	+10% $-418
Rent	-10% $-466	-5% $-333	+0% $-200	+5% $-68	+10% $65
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-103	base $-200	+0.5pp $-300	+1.0pp $-402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	0d	1	1.33mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	15d	1	1.33mi
100 Jumper Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1642	$2,968	$1.81	0d	23	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $227 · $2,724/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $385,000 Active 229 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 220 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $385,000 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $385,000 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $385,000 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $385,000 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $385,000 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $385,000 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,000 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,000 Active 208 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    price $385,000 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT!! Welcome to this immaculate move-in-ready two bedroom two full bathroom ranch offering easy, one level living in a vibrant gated community. This turnkey home features new decor, a brand new master bedroom carpet and charming French doors that fill the home with natural light. Enjoy an open and inviting layout with plenty of windows throughout. Located in a friendly, active adult community with fantastic amenities- clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis courts, bocci and plenty of social activities. You will love the lifestyle as much as the home itself. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, entertainment and major commuting routes. This home offers both comfort and convenience in one perfect package. Lake Ridge a wonderful development

17. 2026-03-11
    price $400,000 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT!! Welcome to this immaculate move-in-ready two bedroom two full bathroom ranch offering easy, one level living in a vibrant gated community. This turnkey home features new decor, a brand new master bedroom carpet and charming French doors that fill the home with natural light. Enjoy an open and inviting layout with plenty of windows throughout. Located in a friendly, active adult community with fantastic amenities- clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis courts, bocci and plenty of social activities. You will love the lifestyle as much as the home itself. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, entertainment and major commuting routes. This home offers both comfort and convenience in one perfect package. Lake Ridge a wonderful development

18. 2026-02-01
    price $415,000 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT!! Welcome to this immaculate move-in-ready two bedroom two full bathroom ranch offering easy, one level living in a vibrant gated community. This turnkey home features new decor, a brand new master bedroom carpet and charming French doors that fill the home with natural light. Enjoy an open and inviting layout with plenty of windows throughout. Located in a friendly, active adult community with fantastic amenities- clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis courts, bocci and plenty of social activities. You will love the lifestyle as much as the home itself. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, entertainment and major commuting routes. This home offers both comfort and convenience in one perfect package. Lake Ridge a wonderful development

19. 2025-12-02
    price $425,000 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT!! Welcome to this immaculate move-in-ready two bedroom two full bathroom ranch offering easy, one level living in a vibrant gated community. This turnkey home features new decor, a brand new master bedroom carpet and charming French doors that fill the home with natural light. Enjoy an open and inviting layout with plenty of windows throughout. Located in a friendly, active adult community with fantastic amenities- clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis courts, bocci and plenty of social activities. You will love the lifestyle as much as the home itself. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, entertainment and major commuting routes. This home offers both comfort and convenience in one perfect package. Lake Ridge a wonderful development

20. 2025-11-04
    listed $449,900 Active 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT!! Welcome to this immaculate move-in-ready two bedroom two full bathroom ranch offering easy, one level living in a vibrant gated community. This turnkey home features new decor, a brand new master bedroom carpet and charming French doors that fill the home with natural light. Enjoy an open and inviting layout with plenty of windows throughout. Located in a friendly, active adult community with fantastic amenities- clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis courts, bocci and plenty of social activities. You will love the lifestyle as much as the home itself. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, entertainment and major commuting routes. This home offers both comfort and convenience in one perfect package. Lake Ridge a wonderful development

21. 2025-10-30
    historical $449,900 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT!! Welcome to this immaculate move-in-ready two bedroom two full bathroom ranch offering easy, one level living in a vibrant gated community. This turnkey home features new decor, a brand new master bedroom carpet and charming French doors that fill the home with natural light. Enjoy an open and inviting layout with plenty of windows throughout. Located in a friendly, active adult community with fantastic amenities- clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis courts, bocci and plenty of social activities. You will love the lifestyle as much as the home itself. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, entertainment and major commuting routes. This home offers both comfort and convenience in one perfect package. Lake Ridge a wonderful development

22. 2023-11-28
    soldstatus $325,000
23. 2023-11-22
    soldstatus $325,000 Sold 425-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    Adult Community living at its best! This pristine and rare Fairfield Unit in desirable Lake Ridge awaits its new owners! Home is move-in ready, spacious and conveniently located minutes from shopping, beaches & places of worship. Amenities include, clubhouse, indoor and outdoor pools, tennis/pickle ball courts, shuffleboard, bocci, exercise room, billiard, and much more! Must see! Furnishings available for purchase.

24. 2023-11-22
    soldstatus $325,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    Adult Community living at its best! This pristine and rare Fairfield Unit in desirable Lake Ridge awaits its new owners! Home is move-in ready, spacious and conveniently located minutes from shopping, beaches & places of worship. Amenities include, clubhouse, indoor and outdoor pools, tennis/pickle ball courts, shuffleboard, bocci, exercise room, billiard, and much more! Must see! Furnishings available for purchase.

25. 2023-11-22
    soldstatus $325,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    Adult Community living at its best! This pristine and rare Fairfield Unit in desirable Lake Ridge awaits its new owners! Home is move-in ready, spacious and conveniently located minutes from shopping, beaches & places of worship. Amenities include, clubhouse, indoor and outdoor pools, tennis/pickle ball courts, shuffleboard, bocci, exercise room, billiard, and much more! Must see! Furnishings available for purchase.

26. 2023-10-29
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    Adult Community living at its best! This pristine and rare Fairfield Unit in desirable Lake Ridge awaits its new owners! Home is move-in ready, spacious and conveniently located minutes from shopping, beaches & places of worship. Amenities include, clubhouse, indoor and outdoor pools, tennis/pickle ball courts, shuffleboard, bocci, exercise room, billiard, and much more! Must see! Furnishings available for purchase.

27. 2023-10-29
    historical Under Contract 425-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    Adult Community living at its best! This pristine and rare Fairfield Unit in desirable Lake Ridge awaits its new owners! Home is move-in ready, spacious and conveniently located minutes from shopping, beaches & places of worship. Amenities include, clubhouse, indoor and outdoor pools, tennis/pickle ball courts, shuffleboard, bocci, exercise room, billiard, and much more! Must see! Furnishings available for purchase.

28. 2023-08-21
    listed $324,900 Active
29. 2023-08-21
    listed $324,900 Active
30. 2023-08-15
    historical $324,900
31. 2023-08-14
    historical $324,900

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    Adult Community living at its best! This pristine and rare Fairfield Unit in desirable Lake Ridge awaits its new owners! Home is move-in ready, spacious and conveniently located minutes from shopping, beaches & places of worship. Amenities include, clubhouse, indoor and outdoor pools, tennis/pickle ball courts, shuffleboard, bocci, exercise room, billiard, and much more! Must see! Furnishings available for purchase.

32. 2023-08-14
    listed $324,900 Active 425-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    Adult Community living at its best! This pristine and rare Fairfield Unit in desirable Lake Ridge awaits its new owners! Home is move-in ready, spacious and conveniently located minutes from shopping, beaches & places of worship. Amenities include, clubhouse, indoor and outdoor pools, tennis/pickle ball courts, shuffleboard, bocci, exercise room, billiard, and much more! Must see! Furnishings available for purchase.

33. 2001-08-08
    soldstatus $147,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,341 · $445/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,464 · $622/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,123/yr (+$177/mo · 39.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$5,341
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,222
• − Management: −$3,222
• − HOA: −$2,724
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$8,930
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,143
• After-tax cash flow: $-262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+161.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $385,000 MOMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $400,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $415,000 MOMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $425,000 MOMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $449,900 MOMLS
• 2025-10-30 Coming Soon $449,900 MOMLS
• 2023-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-22 Sold (MLS) $325,000 MOMLS
• 2023-11-22 Sold (MLS) $325,000 GSMLS
• 2023-11-22 Sold (MLS) $325,000 NJMLS
• 2023-10-29 Pending — GSMLS
• 2023-10-29 Contingent — NJMLS
• 2023-08-21 Listed $324,900 MOMLS
• 2023-08-21 Listed $324,900 GSMLS
• 2023-08-15 Coming Soon $324,900 MOMLS
• 2023-08-14 Coming Soon $324,900 GSMLS
• 2023-08-14 Listed $324,900 NJMLS
• 2001-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,341 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.