18597 W Tohono Dr · Goodyear, AZ 85338

$522,537

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,469 sqft · Land · 43 Days on market

Built 2026 7,200 sqft lot $212/sqft · at area comps Est $532k · at est. $155/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Cash flow +1.8/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW, POPULAR PLAN, BIG GREATROOM, 1/2 BATH. Home price reflects base price with selected options. Beautiful Single-Story with 3 Oversized Bedrooms and Walk in Closets, 2 Baths, and a 2-Car Garage with 15' between neighbors. The Gourmet Kitchen has a 36'' Gas Cooktop, and Wall Oven/Microwave and White Cabinets. The Owner's Suite has Raised Height Dual Vanities. Las Ventanas offers homeowners convenient access to shopping, dining, recreation, and major employment centers. Easy access to Interstate 10 and Loop 303 ensures a seamless commute. Residents can enjoy a centralized park with EV Chargers, shaded play structures, sports courts, outdoor amphitheater and a large, covered open air

Key facts

• Ev chargers
• Gourmet kitchen
• Wall oven microwave

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• 36 GAS COOKTOP
• WALL OVEN MICROWAVE
• RAISED HEIGHT DUAL VANITIES
• EV CHARGERS
• SHADED PLAY STRUCTURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 7,200 sq ft (assessor); Directions: From Cotton Ln, west on Yuma Rd, left onto 185th Dr. From I-10, take Perryville Rd south. Turn left onto Yuma Rd. Turn right into the community on 185th.
• HOA & community: Community association with a $155 monthly fee covering grounds maintenance; Community amenities include pickleball courts, playground, and biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces; 2.5 covered/garage spaces; Tandem garage with direct access and garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; Complete spec home
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile roof; Building area per builder
• Exterior features: Sprinklers in front; Desert front landscaping; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in electric oven; Built-in microwave; Gas stub for range; Walk-in pantry; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Low-emissivity, dual-pane ENERGY STAR windows; Fresh air mechanical (energy efficient)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with washer/dryer hookups; Energy Star noted for laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $523k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (54.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (56.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (56.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 3.0% in Goodyear — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Liberty Elementary District (4266) (rural): math 26% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #100 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Las Brisas Academy (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 655 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1088 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($507k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $225,952 (56.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.25%
• DSCR: 0.28
• GRM: 19.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $532,284
• List price: $522,537
• Delta: -1.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -51.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-217,344
• Equity at exit: $77,912

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.58×
• Total profit: $-376,799
• Equity at exit: $45,179

Cash invested: $146,310 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85338

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1088
• Price-to-rent: 19.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,260 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,740
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$653 /mo · $7,838/yr
• Insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-1,981

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,767

Max offer price $235,867

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,620	-5% $-1,801	+0% $-1,981	+5% $-2,162	+10% $-2,342
Rent	-10% $-2,160	-5% $-2,070	+0% $-1,981	+5% $-1,892	+10% $-1,803
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,718	-0.5pp $-1,848	base $-1,981	+0.5pp $-2,117	+1.0pp $-2,254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $130,634
• Closing costs: $15,676
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2506 S 186th Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	3100	$30,000	$9.68	1d	1	0.65mi
17456 W Ashley Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1762	$2,350	$1.33	1d	1	0.91mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	5d	1	0.93mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	2d	1	0.93mi
1036 S 177th Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,000	$1.22	17d	1	1.09mi
1036 S 177th Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,995	$1.22	1d	1	1.09mi
56 S 190th Ln Buckeye, AZ	4.0	2.5	2114	$1,995	$0.94	4d	1	1.15mi
3150 S 180th Ln Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2083	$2,300	$1.10	44d	1	1.21mi
18620 W Larkspur Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.0	1734	$1,975	$1.14	10d	1	1.22mi
18582 W Vogel Ave Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.0	1734	$2,026	$1.17	2d	1	1.27mi
3534 S 182nd Ln Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1727	$2,150	$1.24	24d	1	1.33mi
392 S 194th Ln Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1623	$2,095	$1.29	3d	1	1.35mi
3382 S 179th Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.5	1706	$2,000	$1.17	5d	1	1.38mi
3349 S 179th Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.5	1890	$2,095	$1.11	1d	1	1.38mi
17430 W Yavapai St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2277	$1,995	$0.88	1d	1	1.45mi
17421 W Papago St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2522	$2,600	$1.03	15d	1	1.45mi
17415 W Yavapai St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.0	2277	$2,295	$1.01	17d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $522,537 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $522,537 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $522,537 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $522,537 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $522,537 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $522,537 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $521,999 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $521,999 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $521,999 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $521,999 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $521,999 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $521,999 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $518,999 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $518,999 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    historical
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $518,999 Active 799-char remark
17. 2026-04-11
    listed $499,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,270
• − Property taxes: −$7,838
• − Insurance: −$2,613
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,169
• − Management: −$2,169
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$15,201
• Taxable loss: −$34,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,161
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Elementary District (4266)
• NCES district ID: 0404320
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $71,731
• Composite: 27.84/100
• National rank: #6881
• State rank: #100 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodyear, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 67,451
• Household income: $101,744
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 252.0828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+4.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $522,537 ARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $521,999 ARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $518,999 ARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $499,999 ARMLS