2314 D N Sailing Way · Kerrville, TX 78028

$221,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 149 Days on market

Built 2011 Good condition 1,307 sqft lot Garage $173/sqft · 22% below area Est $284k · 22% under $105/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome in a prime location for sale! Situated directly across from Singing Wind Park, this home offers unbeatable access to walking trails, a dog park, and the Olympic pool. Step inside to an open floor plan with a kitchen bar, tile countertops, and great natural light. Upstairs, you'll find oversized bedrooms and beautifully updated bathrooms with granite countertops. The primary suite includes double vanities and plenty of room to unwind. A spacious one-car garage connects directly to the kitchen, and the upstairs laundry closet keeps chores simple.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Open floor plan
• Kitchen bar

Tags

• WALKING TRAILS
• DOG PARK
• OLYMPIC POOL
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN BAR
• TILE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $222k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-204 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.5% in Kerrville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#25 in TX, #1,483 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Kerrville ISD (town): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #220 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Daniels El (math 56% / reading 50%, grade C, #705 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 548 students, 66% FRL); Peterson Middle (math 39% / reading 50%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 1,075 students, 52% FRL); Tivy H S (math 42% / reading 60%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,468 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 998 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 422 units permitted in Kerr County in 2024 (322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kerr County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,557 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.94%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,543
• List price: $221,900
• Delta: -21.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2205 Singing Wind Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+2%)	4mo	$1	—	82
104 Amelia Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,166 (-9%)	6mo	$264,900	$227	70
100 Jasper Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,417 (+11%)	4mo	$314,900	$222	67
1072 Shutter Way	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-5%)	2mo	$259,900	$214	60
250 Meeker Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-0%)	12mo	$174,900	$137	59
3304 Glacier Blf	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+6%)	7mo	$268,999	$199	50
3234 Glacier Blf	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+6%)	9mo	$293,999	$217	48
304 Riley Way	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,414 (+10%)	13mo	$312,500	$221	44
1319 Moraine Pl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+6%)	16mo	$278,999	$206	41
1303 Moraine Pl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+6%)	19mo	$266,979	$197	39
1028 Moraine Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+13%)	14mo	$265,000	$183	34
2604 Memorial Blvd	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,392 (+9%)	11mo	$209,950	$151	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-48,816
• Equity at exit: $33,086

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-58,657
• Equity at exit: $19,186

Cash invested: $62,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.1 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $280,500 ($216/sqft)
• Median days on market: 99 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78028

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 998
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,816 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$277 /mo · $3,328/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,074

Max offer price $192,352

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-51	-5% $-128	+0% $-204	+5% $-281	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-348	-5% $-276	+0% $-204	+5% $-132	+10% $-61
Rate	-1.0pp $-92	-0.5pp $-148	base $-204	+0.5pp $-262	+1.0pp $-320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,475
• Closing costs: $6,657
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2318 Sailing Way N Kerrville, TX	2.0	1.5	1084	$1,500	$1.38	5d	1	0.08mi
486 Bridal Path Kerrville, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	139d	1	0.13mi
486 Bridal Path Kerrville, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	5d	1	0.13mi
2105 Singing Wind Dr Kerrville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	822	$1,425	$1.73	0d	8	0.18mi
2105 Singing Wind Dr Kerrville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	822	$1,375	$1.67	139d	1	0.18mi
2601 Singing Wind Dr Kerrville, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,465	$1.38	1d	1	0.26mi
121 Amelia Ct Kerrville, TX	3.0	2.0	1059	$1,800	$1.70	5d	1	0.27mi
125 Amelia Ct Kerrville, TX	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,650	$1.51	139d	1	0.29mi
516 Tomahawk Trl Kerrville, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	5d	1	0.62mi
2408 Birkdale Ln Kerrville, TX	3.0	2.0	1847	$3,000	$1.62	139d	1	0.89mi
324 Lytle St Kerrville, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,095	$1.75	5d	1	0.96mi
3414 Riverside Dr Kerrville, TX	2.0	1.0	988	$1,200	$1.21	1d	1	1.17mi
1316 Carol Ann Dr Kerrville, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	119d	1	1.17mi
1004 3rd St Kerrville, TX	3.0	1.0	1178	$1,500	$1.27	5d	1	1.33mi
909 Tivy St Kerrville, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	139d	1	1.37mi
101 Ranchero Rd Kerrville, TX	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,300	$1.28	5d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential property
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $105 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single family residence2 stories
• Construction: Composition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchPublic-maintained roadSubdivision: Villas at the ParkR1 zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric range
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric rangeElectric water heaterCarpet flooringVinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

HOA detail $105/mo · $1,260/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-05
   days on market $221,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-09-04
   days on market $221,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-09-03
   days on market $221,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-09-02
   days on market $221,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-08-30
   days on market $221,900 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-08-29
   days on market $221,900 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-08-28
   days on market $221,900 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-08-27
   days on market $221,900 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-08-26
   days on market $221,900 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-08-25
    days on market $221,900 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-08-24
    days on market $221,900 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-08-23
    days on market $221,900 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-08-22
    days on market $221,900 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-08-21
    days on market $221,900 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-08-20
    days on market $221,900 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-08-19
    days on market $221,900 Active 132 DOM
17. 2026-08-18
    days on market $221,900 Active 131 DOM
18. 2026-08-17
    days on market $221,900 Active 130 DOM
19. 2026-08-16
    days on market $221,900 Active 129 DOM
20. 2026-08-15
    days on market $221,900 Active 128 DOM
21. 2026-08-14
    days on market $221,900 Active 127 DOM
22. 2026-08-13
    days on market $221,900 Active 126 DOM
23. 2026-08-12
    days on market $221,900 Active 125 DOM
24. 2026-08-11
    days on market $221,900 Active 124 DOM
25. 2026-08-10
    days on market $221,900 Active 123 DOM
26. 2026-08-09
    days on market $221,900 Active 122 DOM
27. 2026-08-08
    days on market $221,900 Active 121 DOM
28. 2026-08-07
    days on market $221,900 Active 120 DOM
29. 2026-08-06
    days on market $221,900 Active 119 DOM
30. 2026-08-05
    days on market $221,900 Active 118 DOM
31. 2026-08-04
    days on market $221,900 Active 117 DOM
32. 2026-08-03
    days on market $221,900 Active 116 DOM
33. 2026-07-31
    days on market $221,900 Active 113 DOM
34. 2026-07-30
    days on market $221,900 Active 112 DOM
35. 2026-07-29
    days on market $221,900 Active 111 DOM
36. 2026-07-27
    days on market $221,900 Active 109 DOM
37. 2026-07-25
    days on market $221,900 Active 107 DOM
38. 2026-07-24
    days on market $221,900 Active 106 DOM
39. 2026-07-23
    days on market $221,900 Active 105 DOM
40. 2026-07-22
    days on market $221,900 Active 104 DOM
41. 2026-07-21
    days on market $221,900 Active 103 DOM
42. 2026-07-18
    days on market $221,900 Active 100 DOM
43. 2026-07-16
    days on market $221,900 Active 98 DOM
44. 2026-07-16
    days on market $221,900 Active 97 DOM
45. 2026-07-14
    days on market $221,900 Active 96 DOM
46. 2026-07-13
    days on market $221,900 Active 95 DOM
47. 2026-07-12
    days on market $221,900 Active 94 DOM
48. 2026-07-11
    days on market $221,900 Active 93 DOM
49. 2026-07-10
    days on market $221,900 Active 92 DOM
50. 2026-07-09
    days on market $221,900 Active 91 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,430
• − Property taxes: −$3,328
• − Insurance: −$1,110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,743
• − Management: −$1,743
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$6,455
• Taxable loss: −$6,282
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,508
• After-tax cash flow: $-943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,400–$19,200 screening

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome is move-in ready with good condition and potential for updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizing kitchen ↑
• Both update flooring — improving aesthetics ↑
• Both update exterior paint — enhancing curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Daniels El C TX #705/4,322 Nat'l #10,986/41,679 Middle Peterson Middle D TX #491/1,662 Nat'l #4,747/14,009 High Tivy H S D+ TX #482/1,632 Nat'l #5,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kerrville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825590
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,050
• Composite: 40.54/100
• National rank: #3702
• State rank: #220 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Kerrville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #1483

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kerrville, TX
• County: Kerr County · 54,010 people
• City population: 41,206
• Metro: Kerrville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,206
• Household income: $66,991
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Kerr County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,010 people
• By 2030: 55,651 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 58,923 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 62,117 · +15.0%
• By 2075: 71,809 · +33.0%
• By 2100: 77,004 · +42.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kerr

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.4% · R 76.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -49.6pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+59.1 2008: R+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.97%
• Current HPI: 213.3663
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Kerrville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential property
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $105 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single family residence2 stories
• Construction: Composition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchPublic-maintained roadSubdivision: Villas at the ParkR1 zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric range
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric rangeElectric water heaterCarpet flooringVinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-30 Price Changed $221,900 KVMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $229,000 KVMLS