587 Somoa Ln · Lathrop, CA 95330

$399,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1974 6,098 sqft lot $301/sqft · 19% below area Est $493k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the possibilities at 587 Somoa Lane. This 4-bed, 2-bath home is located in the highly desirable Old Lathrop community, surrounded by long-standing neighbors and a true small-town feel. At $399,000, it’s one of the best-priced opportunities in the area — ideal for buyers who want to personalize a home with their own updates and vision. With a spacious lot and a layout full of potential, this is your chance to create something special in a neighborhood people love to stay in.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $332k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.1% in Lathrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#842 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, schools F, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $332,399 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.09%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $493,210
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -19.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
587 Somoa Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,324 (0%)	1mo	$420,000	$317	99
16039 Cambridge	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,249 (-6%)	5mo	$495,000	$396	78
16100 5th St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,353 (+2%)	4mo	$497,000	$367	69
15842 5th St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,387 (+5%)	6mo	$368,888	$266	61
16280 Julie Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-14%)	7mo	$489,000	$427	61
468 Aztec Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,152 (-13%)	9mo	$475,000	$412	59
16165 Noel Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-14%)	15mo	$500,000	$437	58
16201 Julie Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-14%)	17mo	$479,000	$419	54
726 Milestone Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,264 (-4%)	7mo	$470,000	$372	54
340 O St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,130 (-15%)	15mo	$499,999	$442	48
337 Gardner Pl	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,521 (+15%)	6mo	$525,000	$345	38
15002 S Cambridge Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (+15%)	11mo	$600,000	$396	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-47,820
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-24,064
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95330

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,324 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $958/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,960

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $513	-5% $400	+0% $287	+5% $175	+10% $62
Rent	-10% $25	-5% $156	+0% $287	+5% $419	+10% $550
Rate	-1.0pp $488	-0.5pp $389	base $287	+0.5pp $184	+1.0pp $79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16012 Julie Ln Lathrop, CA	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,800	$2.45	24d	1	0.13mi
1241 Shawn Ct Lathrop, CA	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,395	$1.77	24d	1	0.43mi
400 Stanford Xg Lathrop, CA	2.0–3.0	2.5	1472	$3,326	$2.26	3d	47	0.82mi
631 Estancia St Lathrop, CA	4.0	3.0	1870	$3,199	$1.71	3d	1	1.13mi
14061 Jasper St Lathrop, CA	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,700	$2.00	45d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   Discover the possibilities at 587 Somoa Lane. This 4-bed, 2-bath home is located in the highly desirable Old Lathrop community, surrounded by long-standing neighbors and a true small-town feel. At $399,000, it’s one of the best-priced opportunities in the area — ideal for buyers who want to personalize a home with their own updates and vision. With a spacious lot and a layout full of potential, this is your chance to create something special in a neighborhood people love to stay in.

2. 2026-04-18
   listed $399,000 Active 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   Discover the possibilities at 587 Somoa Lane. This 4-bed, 2-bath home is located in the highly desirable Old Lathrop community, surrounded by long-standing neighbors and a true small-town feel. At $399,000, it’s one of the best-priced opportunities in the area — ideal for buyers who want to personalize a home with their own updates and vision. With a spacious lot and a layout full of potential, this is your chance to create something special in a neighborhood people love to stay in.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $958 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,032 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,074/yr (+$173/mo · 216.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$958
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,191
• − Management: −$3,191
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$3,405
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$817
• After-tax cash flow: $4,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lathrop

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #842
• US rank: #23278

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lathrop, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 35,395
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,395
• Household income: $125,421
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 309.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Asian 32% Two or more races 22% White 19% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Russian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 12% Tagalog/Filipino 7%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.75%
• Current HPI: 306.2299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-18 Listed $399,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $958 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.