9953 Glenbrook Ln · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$279,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2022 4,782 sqft lot Est $271k · at est. $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful one-story home that is located in Enclave at Dobbin. This home has 4 bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, and a 2 car attached garage. This house boasts high ceilings and an open-concept floor plan, which allows for entertaining friends and hanging with family. The kitchen has a large island with lots of storage, a custom tile backsplash, and includes a refrigerator. Ceramic tile flooring throughout the main living areas. The Owner's Suite boasts double sinks, a separate tub and shower, and a roomy walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Enclave at dobbin
• Large island
• One-story home

Tags

• ONE-STORY HOME
• ENCLAVE AT DOBBIN
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE ISLAND
• CUSTOM TILE BACKSPLASH
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Prestige Association Management G; Annual association fee: $750

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2022; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Cement siding with stone accents
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-613 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (38.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,660 (38.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.36%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,864
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10260 Badger Run Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,689 (+1%)	4mo	$281,125	$166	78
25062 Lindsey Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,717 (+3%)	2mo	$300,400	$175	75
27219 Mockingbird Terrace Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (-2%)	6mo	$279,725	$171	72
27394 Axis Deer Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,689 (+1%)	6mo	$262,542	$155	72
10033 Swift Fox Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,693 (+1%)	3mo	$274,900	$162	67
10288 Badger Run Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,597 (-4%)	5mo	$256,724	$161	62
9315 Central Pl	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-4%)	5mo	$265,000	$165	59
10155 Red Snapper Rd	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,860 (+11%)	7mo	$283,416	$152	57
10010 Cottontail Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,538 (-8%)	5mo	$239,990	$156	54
10272 Badger Run Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,427 (-15%)	3mo	$280,260	$196	50
27314 Axis Deer Trl	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (+12%)	6mo	$297,525	$159	46
27278 Axis Deer Trl	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (+12%)	4mo	$299,635	$161	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $107,802
• Equity at exit: $252,156

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $338,013
• Equity at exit: $543,784

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$684 /mo · $8,202/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-613

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,035

Max offer price $171,660

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-454	-5% $-533	+0% $-613	+5% $-692	+10% $-771
Rent	-10% $-791	-5% $-702	+0% $-613	+5% $-523	+10% $-434
Rate	-1.0pp $-472	-0.5pp $-542	base $-613	+0.5pp $-685	+1.0pp $-759

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	4d	1	0.26mi
9733 Grosbeak Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,798	$1.38	45d	1	0.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 515-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $279,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,202 · $684/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,202 · $684/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$8,202
• − Insurance: −$2,197
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,169
• − Management: −$2,169
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$12,205
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,929
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12622.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-12 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-21 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS

Property tax history

+38.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,202 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.