2517 Sherwood Dr · Erie, PA 16506

$74,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 $400/mo HOA · 34% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This BRAND NEW Cavco mobile home is located in the West Ridge Mobile Home Park in Millcreek Township. This home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath with approx. 747 sq. ft. Make an appointment to take a look at this one before it is gone! Note: Sale incles final utility hookups and final BIU inspection. Taxes are estimated and appraised value is estimated at the sale price. 3 MONTHS FREE LOT RENT!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2026
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $400 monthly fee; HOA fee includes water, sewer, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Level lot; Paved road; Private maintained road; Private road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Refrigerator; Vinyl flooring; No basement

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-10/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $75k (0.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (0.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.

Recommended offer $74,778 (0.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-11,928
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-9,386
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16506

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,162

Max offer price $74,778

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1428 Fairfax Ave Erie, PA	1.0	1.0	560	$895	$1.60	44d	1	0.72mi
5040 W Ridge Rd Unit 502 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	650	$895	$1.38	44d	1	1.01mi
5040 W Ridge Rd Unit 405 Erie, PA	1.0	1.0	498	$795	$1.60	44d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 395-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $74,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   remarks 371-char remark
10. 2026-06-10
    listed $74,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,114
• − Management: −$1,114
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable loss: −$975
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$234
• After-tax cash flow: $224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,070
• Household income: $81,060
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.21%
• Current HPI: 228.7506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $74,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2021): $106 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.