427 Bells Mills Cloe Rd · Punxsutawney, PA 15767

$29,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 493 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1872

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

& quot; & quot; Incredible Investor Opportunity! Spacious 3BR Home with Panoramic Views in Punxsutawney. Bring your toolbelt and your imagination to this diamond in the rough! Offering 1 431 square feet of living space a highly functional 3-bedroom 1-bathroom layout and an unbeatable entry price of just $29 999 this property is the perfect addition to your investment portfolio or an ideal fix-and-flip project. - Text me with any questions - Mike& quot; & quot; & quot; & quot; & quot; & quot;

Key facts

• Built 1872
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $964 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#219 in PA, #1,934 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D-.
• Punxsutawney Area SD (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #239 of 539 in PA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1872 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $29,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1872 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 44.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 137.67%
• DSCR: 7.13
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.73×
• Total profit: $56,542
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.28×
• Total profit: $128,374
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15767

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $508/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $964

Break-even live

Break-even rent $269

Max offer price $29,999

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $981	-5% $972	+0% $964	+5% $955	+10% $947
Rent	-10% $846	-5% $905	+0% $964	+5% $1,022	+10% $1,081
Rate	-1.0pp $979	-0.5pp $971	base $964	+0.5pp $956	+1.0pp $948

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $29,999 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $29,999 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,999 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,999 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,999 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,999 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 500-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $29,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $508 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $508 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$508
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,429
• − Management: −$1,429
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $11,792
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,830
• After-tax cash flow: $8,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Punxsutawney Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4219800
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,610
• Composite: 40.19/100
• National rank: #3787
• State rank: #239 of 539 in PA

Livability — Punxsutawney

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #219
• US rank: #1934

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,136

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,134 people
• By 2030: 40,512 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 36,747 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 32,755 · -22.3%
• By 2075: 24,402 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 16,398 · -61.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Polish 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.5) · D 20.4% · R 78.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -29.8pp · 2024: -58.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.5 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+59.8 2012: R+45.4 2008: R+29.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.60%
• Current HPI: 132.6877
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $29,999 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $508 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.