3115 Deer Run Rd · Oliver, GA 30461

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2008 5.01 ac lot $71/sqft · 37% below area Est $105k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits on this private, wooded 5.01-acre lot! Tucked away for added privacy, this property already has a well, septic system, and power in place, offering a great head start for your future plans. . Property also features a workshop with attached lean-to storage, perfect for equipment, tools, or hobby space. Whether you are looking to build your dream home or place a new mobile home, this spacious lot offers endless potential in a peaceful setting. The existing mobile home is in major disrepair and is being sold as-is with no value assigned to the structure

Key facts

• Well septic system
• Power in place
• Spacious lot

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED LOT
• WELL SEPTIC SYSTEM
• POWER IN PLACE
• WORKSHOP WITH STORAGE
• HOBBY SPACE
• SPACIOUS LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Storage outbuilding; 5.01-acre lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#544 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Bulloch County (rural): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #85 of 174 in GA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 250 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 668 units permitted in Bulloch County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bulloch County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.10%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,770
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 14.44%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $18,147
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $64,131
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30461

• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,701 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $894/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $953

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $658	-5% $624	+0% $590	+5% $556	+10% $522
Rent	-10% $456	-5% $523	+0% $590	+5% $657	+10% $725
Rate	-1.0pp $651	-0.5pp $621	base $590	+0.5pp $559	+1.0pp $528

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 21 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    listed $119,900 Active 575-char remark

    Show marketing remark (575 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on this private, wooded 5.01-acre lot! Tucked away for added privacy, this property already has a well, septic system, and power in place, offering a great head start for your future plans. . Property also features a workshop with attached lean-to storage, perfect for equipment, tools, or hobby space. Whether you are looking to build your dream home or place a new mobile home, this spacious lot offers endless potential in a peaceful setting. The existing mobile home is in major disrepair and is being sold as-is with no value assigned to the structure

19. 2026-05-08
    listed $119,900 New 575-char remark

    Show marketing remark (575 chars)

    Opportunity awaits on this private, wooded 5.01-acre lot! Tucked away for added privacy, this property already has a well, septic system, and power in place, offering a great head start for your future plans. . Property also features a workshop with attached lean-to storage, perfect for equipment, tools, or hobby space. Whether you are looking to build your dream home or place a new mobile home, this spacious lot offers endless potential in a peaceful setting. The existing mobile home is in major disrepair and is being sold as-is with no value assigned to the structure

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $894 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,103 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$209/yr (+$17/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$894
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,633
• − Management: −$1,633
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $5,445
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,307
• After-tax cash flow: $5,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bulloch County
• NCES district ID: 1300630
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,335
• Composite: 26.97/100
• National rank: #7074
• State rank: #85 of 174 in GA

Livability — Oliver

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #24034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bulloch County · 73,507 people
• City population: 26
• Metro: Statesboro, GA
• Population (ZIP): 17,447
• Household income: $80,224
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 258.0

Population outlook (Bulloch County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 79,935 people
• By 2030: 83,796 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 89,717 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 94,558 · +18.3%
• By 2075: 104,376 · +30.6%
• By 2100: 112,857 · +41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bulloch

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.0) · D 35.3% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.0 2020: R+23.7 2016: R+23.4 2012: R+19.1 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.47%
• Current HPI: 184.7341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Statesboro, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $119,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $119,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $894 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.