631 Robert Ave · Ferguson, MO 63135

$114,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1960 6,250 sqft lot $123/sqft · at area comps Est $111k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment property with section 8 tenants in place. Property for sale as part of a portfolio of four properties ( 26006825 , 26006820, 26006827, 26006831).

Key facts

• 6,250 sq ft lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 125 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.40%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,658
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: 3.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 Superior Dr	0.05mi	3/1.0	900 (-4%)	3mo	$139,000	$154	87
404 Ballman Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	892 (-5%)	4mo	$99,900	$112	73
613 Plantmore Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+8%)	4mo	$119,900	$119	71
435 N Clay Ave	0.34mi	2/1.5 (-1)	972 (+4%)	3mo	$155,000	$159	70
405 Teston Dr	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	888 (-5%)	7mo	$125,000	$141	68
418 Millman Dr	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,027 (+10%)	6mo	$68,600	$67	64
514 La Motte Ln	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (-9%)	5mo	$60,000	$71	63
315 Coppinger Dr	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,034 (+10%)	5mo	$84,900	$82	60
7 Bromley Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,060 (+13%)	2mo	$192,500	$182	52
1354 Stein Rd	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	982 (+5%)	2mo	$160,000	$163	48
57 Forestwood Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+10%)	6mo	$148,800	$144	44
941 Highmont Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-10%)	3mo	$105,900	$126	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $9,721
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $68,368
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63135

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,092/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $939

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $365	+0% $332	+5% $300	+10% $267
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $279	+0% $332	+5% $386	+10% $440
Rate	-1.0pp $390	-0.5pp $362	base $332	+0.5pp $303	+1.0pp $272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
650 Robert Ave Ferguson, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,224	$1.50	45d	1	0.06mi
415 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,400	$1.72	45d	1	0.17mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	45d	1	0.23mi
401 Millman Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	17d	1	0.23mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	45d	1	0.27mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	19d	1	0.28mi
502 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	45d	1	0.29mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	25d	1	0.75mi
227 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	45d	1	0.84mi
945 Edgehill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,575	$1.42	45d	1	0.87mi
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	25d	1	0.89mi
296 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	16d	1	1.01mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	25d	1	1.04mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	45d	1	1.08mi
110 Paul Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	875	$1,050	$1.20	8d	1	1.09mi
419 S Florissant Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	45d	1	1.12mi
601 Carson Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	743	$950	$1.28	25d	1	1.13mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	13d	1	1.15mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	45d	1	1.16mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	25d	1	1.16mi
24 Vierling Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$1,290	$1.52	8d	1	1.18mi
12 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	832	$1,080	$1.30	8d	1	1.20mi
222 Henquin Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,050	$1.29	19d	1	1.20mi
246 Louisa Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,600	$1.54	45d	1	1.22mi
222 Randolph Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	8d	1	1.22mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	45d	1	1.24mi
60 Mayme Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,285	$1.34	45d	1	1.27mi
26 Arbor Village Ct Ferguson, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	714	$950	$1.33	25d	1	1.28mi
617 Tesmore Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	877	$1,200	$1.37	45d	1	1.29mi
6156 Wulff Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	960	$1,425	$1.48	11d	1	1.31mi
6625 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	939	$1,300	$1.38	45d	1	1.31mi
6625 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	939	$1,400	$1.49	25d	1	1.31mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	45d	1	1.32mi
910 Disco Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	924	$1,260	$1.36	17d	1	1.32mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	45d	1	1.33mi
1275 N Florissant Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,275	$1.26	25d	1	1.33mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	45d	1	1.36mi
46 Bascom Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	932	$1,175	$1.26	45d	1	1.37mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	45d	1	1.37mi
6180 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	729	$1,300	$1.78	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,900 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,900 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-03-10
    status Active 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Investment property with section 8 tenants in place. Property for sale as part of a portfolio of four properties ( 26006825 , 26006820, 26006827, 26006831).

17. 2026-02-28
    status Pending 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Investment property with section 8 tenants in place. Property for sale as part of a portfolio of four properties ( 26006825 , 26006820, 26006827, 26006831).

18. 2026-02-06
    listed $114,900 Active 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Investment property with section 8 tenants in place. Property for sale as part of a portfolio of four properties ( 26006825 , 26006820, 26006827, 26006831).

19. 2025-01-22
    soldstatus Closed 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Great opportunity here!! Overlooking the Robert-Superior Park!!! 3 bedroom brick ranch home with full walkout basement. Need some light rehab, but what a great deal! Primary bedroom half bathroom was converted into main floor laundry, but would be easy to change back. Wood floors and updated windows. Newer backdoor. Sold as-is. Owner is licensed Missouri Real Estate Broker. ALARM INFO: Unlock door, walk to keypad, type code in keypad, alarm is disabled. - Leaving instructions: Door must be closed to set alarm when leaving. 1. Close door, 2. on keypad, type code. 3. Go out door 4. lock door. 5. Thank you!

20. 2025-01-09
    status Pending 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Great opportunity here!! Overlooking the Robert-Superior Park!!! 3 bedroom brick ranch home with full walkout basement. Need some light rehab, but what a great deal! Primary bedroom half bathroom was converted into main floor laundry, but would be easy to change back. Wood floors and updated windows. Newer backdoor. Sold as-is. Owner is licensed Missouri Real Estate Broker. ALARM INFO: Unlock door, walk to keypad, type code in keypad, alarm is disabled. - Leaving instructions: Door must be closed to set alarm when leaving. 1. Close door, 2. on keypad, type code. 3. Go out door 4. lock door. 5. Thank you!

21. 2024-12-23
    historical Active Under Contract 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Great opportunity here!! Overlooking the Robert-Superior Park!!! 3 bedroom brick ranch home with full walkout basement. Need some light rehab, but what a great deal! Primary bedroom half bathroom was converted into main floor laundry, but would be easy to change back. Wood floors and updated windows. Newer backdoor. Sold as-is. Owner is licensed Missouri Real Estate Broker. ALARM INFO: Unlock door, walk to keypad, type code in keypad, alarm is disabled. - Leaving instructions: Door must be closed to set alarm when leaving. 1. Close door, 2. on keypad, type code. 3. Go out door 4. lock door. 5. Thank you!

22. 2024-12-20
    listed $82,500 Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Great opportunity here!! Overlooking the Robert-Superior Park!!! 3 bedroom brick ranch home with full walkout basement. Need some light rehab, but what a great deal! Primary bedroom half bathroom was converted into main floor laundry, but would be easy to change back. Wood floors and updated windows. Newer backdoor. Sold as-is. Owner is licensed Missouri Real Estate Broker. ALARM INFO: Unlock door, walk to keypad, type code in keypad, alarm is disabled. - Leaving instructions: Door must be closed to set alarm when leaving. 1. Close door, 2. on keypad, type code. 3. Go out door 4. lock door. 5. Thank you!

23. 1994-04-20
    soldstatus
24. 1994-04-20
    soldstatus
25. 1960-04-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,092 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$22/yr (+$2/mo · 2.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,092
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $2,256
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$541
• After-tax cash flow: $3,447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,381
• Household income: $52,328
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 957.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.56%
• Current HPI: 138.6781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+39.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $114,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-22 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-23 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-20 Listed $82,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1960-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,092 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.