619 Ellsworth Rd · Scranton, AR 72865

$155,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,675 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1970 5.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to peaceful country living with this beautiful 4-bedroom, 3-bath home situated on 4.36 acres of scenic land. Enjoy stunning, wide-open views that make every sunrise and sunset unforgettable. This property is perfect for those who love the outdoors, featuring a stocked pond ideal for fishing and relaxing, as well as well water available for gardening to keep your landscape thriving. You'll also find an above-ground storm cellar for added peace of mind. With three carports and a shop, there's plenty of room for vehicles, equipment, and hobbies. The home is equipped with a HVAC system that still has 3 years warranty remaining, offering comfort and efficiency you can count on. If you're

Key facts

• Shop
• Three carports
• Stocked pond

Tags

• WIDE-OPEN VIEWS
• STOCKED POND
• WELL WATER
• ABOVE-GROUND STORM CELLAR
• THREE CARPORTS
• SHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-395/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#229 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Paris School District (town): math 41% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 238 in AR (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Paris Elementary School (math 57% / reading 27%, grade F, #173 of 454 statewide, top 43%, 431 students, 100% FRL); Paris Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #83 of 201 statewide, top 44%, 317 students, 100% FRL); Paris High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #92 of 292 statewide, top 37%, 335 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Logan County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,427 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $98,975
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
619 Ellsworth Rd	0.00mi	4/3.5	2,675 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$37	94

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $16,597
• Equity at exit: $69,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $62,070
• Equity at exit: $107,408

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72865

• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $150,240

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $74	-5% $21	+0% $-33	+5% $-86	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-85	+0% $-33	+5% $19	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $7	base $-33	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,262
• − Management: −$1,262
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$3,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$730
• After-tax cash flow: $336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris School District
• NCES district ID: 0511130
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,950
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5763
• State rank: #83 of 238 in AR

Livability — Scranton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #17326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,101

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,046 people
• By 2030: 20,537 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,443 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 18,220 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 16,164 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 14,858 · -29.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 10% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.2) · D 17.8% · R 80.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.5pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -62.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.2 2020: R+59.5 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+41.9 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — WRVBOR
• 2026-03-19 Listed $155,000 WRVBOR

Property tax history

-18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.