8148 D St · Windsor, CA 95492

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 196 Days on market

Built 1986 $119/sqft · 16% below area Est $190k · 16% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great price improvement. Welcome to Windsor Mobile Country Club, an inviting 55+ community. This refreshed two-bed, two-bath home is approximately 1344 square feet and features exterior and interior improvements. There is a welcoming, spacious living room, a kitchen with ample cabinetry and counter space, and a breakfast counter. Directly off the kitchen is a dining room, complete with a built-in hutch to hold all your dishes and trinkets. The primary suite includes a ceiling fan, dual vanities, and generous closet space. The nice sized laundry room has a washer and dryer for your convenience. Enjoy the spacious front porch, roomy side deck, and storage shed to hold all your tools and toys. Recent work includes exterior repairs to skirting and siding, interior repairs like new carpet, and furnace inspection. Ideally located near the clubhouse, pool, Windsor Town Green, golf, and medical facilities.

Key facts

• Ceiling fan
• Ample cabinetry
• Built-in hutch

Tags

• EXTERIOR IMPROVEMENTS
• INTERIOR IMPROVEMENTS
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• BREAKFAST COUNTER
• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• CEILING FAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 3.0% in Windsor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#210 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Windsor Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #362 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.82%
• DSCR: 2.73
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,500
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -15.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 Aspen Way	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	6mo	$179,900	$139	86
610 Aspen Way	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,345 (+0%)	12mo	$169,000	$126	86
8107 B St	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-3%)	10mo	$270,000	$208	78
612 Aspen Way	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (-3%)	11mo	$215,000	$164	77
8317 Blue Spruce Way	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$135,000	$94	74
1032 Maple Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,484 (+10%)	8mo	$385,000	$259	73
8109 B St	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	3mo	$199,000	$173	72
1133 Chinaberry Way	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	12mo	$279,000	$194	70
702 Sequoia St	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	12mo	$170,000	$111	63
229 Wade Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	16mo	$285,000	$212	49
153 Bari Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,238 (-8%)	3mo	$268,620	$217	47
237 Wade Dr Unit Sp 46	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,231 (-8%)	14mo	$312,000	$253	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $66,309
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $176,344
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95492

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,018 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $351/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $1,449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,184

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
208 Courtyards E Windsor, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,300	$2.35	14d	1	0.25mi
172 Courtyards E Windsor, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,650	$2.70	14d	1	0.32mi
10 3rd St Unit 10 Windsor, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,395	$2.40	44d	1	0.47mi
7924 Ferrari Way Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1476	$3,400	$2.30	44d	1	0.58mi
185 Johnson St Windsor, CA	3.0	2.5	1796	$3,300	$1.84	44d	1	0.68mi
776 McClelland Dr Windsor, CA	2.0	2.5	1344	$2,900	$2.16	44d	1	0.81mi
1145 Shiloh Rd Windsor, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$3,828	$4.93	7d	14	0.92mi
904 Bond Pl Windsor, CA	3.0	3.0	1587	$1,275	$0.80	44d	1	1.01mi
9631 Old Redwood Hwy Unit 9631 Windsor, CA	2.0	1.0	1047	$2,375	$2.27	21d	1	1.25mi
1011 Ventana Dr Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,400	$3.09	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 179 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 178 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $160,000 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    Great price improvement. Welcome to Windsor Mobile Country Club, an inviting 55+ community. This refreshed two-bed, two-bath home is approximately 1344 square feet and features exterior and interior improvements. There is a welcoming, spacious living room, a kitchen with ample cabinetry and counter space, and a breakfast counter. Directly off the kitchen is a dining room, complete with a built-in hutch to hold all your dishes and trinkets. The primary suite includes a ceiling fan, dual vanities, and generous closet space. The nice sized laundry room has a washer and dryer for your convenience. Enjoy the spacious front porch, roomy side deck, and storage shed to hold all your tools and toys. Recent work includes exterior repairs to skirting and siding, interior repairs like new carpet, and furnace inspection. Ideally located near the clubhouse, pool, Windsor Town Green, golf, and medical facilities.

17. 2026-03-20
    price $165,000 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    Great price improvement. Welcome to Windsor Mobile Country Club, an inviting 55+ community. This refreshed two-bed, two-bath home is approximately 1344 square feet and features exterior and interior improvements. There is a welcoming, spacious living room, a kitchen with ample cabinetry and counter space, and a breakfast counter. Directly off the kitchen is a dining room, complete with a built-in hutch to hold all your dishes and trinkets. The primary suite includes a ceiling fan, dual vanities, and generous closet space. The nice sized laundry room has a washer and dryer for your convenience. Enjoy the spacious front porch, roomy side deck, and storage shed to hold all your tools and toys. Recent work includes exterior repairs to skirting and siding, interior repairs like new carpet, and furnace inspection. Ideally located near the clubhouse, pool, Windsor Town Green, golf, and medical facilities.

18. 2025-12-03
    listed $169,000 Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    Great price improvement. Welcome to Windsor Mobile Country Club, an inviting 55+ community. This refreshed two-bed, two-bath home is approximately 1344 square feet and features exterior and interior improvements. There is a welcoming, spacious living room, a kitchen with ample cabinetry and counter space, and a breakfast counter. Directly off the kitchen is a dining room, complete with a built-in hutch to hold all your dishes and trinkets. The primary suite includes a ceiling fan, dual vanities, and generous closet space. The nice sized laundry room has a washer and dryer for your convenience. Enjoy the spacious front porch, roomy side deck, and storage shed to hold all your tools and toys. Recent work includes exterior repairs to skirting and siding, interior repairs like new carpet, and furnace inspection. Ideally located near the clubhouse, pool, Windsor Town Green, golf, and medical facilities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $351 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,216 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$865/yr (+$72/mo · 246.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$351
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,897
• − Management: −$2,897
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $15,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,756
• After-tax cash flow: $13,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Windsor Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600034
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $81,297
• Composite: 25.06/100
• National rank: #7541
• State rank: #362 of 517 in CA

Livability — Windsor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #6671

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Windsor, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 27,429
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 27,429
• Household income: $134,211
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 628.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 13% Native American 4% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 25% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.03%
• Current HPI: 249.6052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $160,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $165,000 BAREIS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $169,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $351 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.