3927 Lost Lake Cir · Jackson, MS 39212

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,245 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1981 0.26 ac lot $84/sqft · 27% below area Est $144k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT FOR INVESTOR. GOOD RENTAL AREA.

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near shopping
• Spacious living area

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• OPEN KITCHEN LAYOUT
• LARGE BACKYARD
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Electricity available; Sewer listed as unknown (sewer availability also indicated)
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Living area reported by owner
• Construction: Brick construction; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Slab patio/porch; Wood fencing; Other exterior features

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; Aluminum-framed windows; Electric dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.43%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,052
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -27.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
623 Edward Cv	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,247 (+0%)	23mo	$131,900	$106	49
628 David Cv	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,153 (-7%)	13mo	$139,900	$121	42
625 David Cv	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-4%)	17mo	$120,000	$100	41
631 Edward Cv	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (-8%)	19mo	$96,000	$83	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $10,430
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $49,698
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39212

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,562/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $917

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $462	-5% $432	+0% $403	+5% $373	+10% $343
Rent	-10% $290	-5% $346	+0% $403	+5% $459	+10% $515
Rate	-1.0pp $455	-0.5pp $429	base $403	+0.5pp $375	+1.0pp $348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $105,000 Active 561-char remark
18. 2025-01-26
    historical $1,195
19. 2025-01-09
    listed $1,195
20. 2021-10-01
    historical
21. 2020-07-15
    soldstatus
22. 2009-05-21
    soldstatus
23. 2009-03-31
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    GREAT FOR INVESTOR. GOOD RENTAL AREA.

24. 2008-08-26
    listed $34,900

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    GREAT FOR INVESTOR. GOOD RENTAL AREA.

25. 2007-12-03
    soldstatus
26. 2007-06-01
    soldstatus
27. 2007-04-18
    listed $94,000
28. 2007-01-07
    listed $83,000
29. 2006-02-03
    historical
30. 2005-06-01
    listed $79,900
31. 1997-06-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,562 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,562 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,562
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $3,358
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$806
• After-tax cash flow: $4,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,659
• Household income: $50,722
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1314.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.01%
• Current HPI: 174.4025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+31.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $105,000 MLSU
• 2025-01-26 Rental Removed $1,195 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-01-09 Listed for Rent $1,195 SHOWMOJO
• 2021-10-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2020-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-03-31 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2008-08-26 Listed $34,900 MLSU
• 2007-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-06-01 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2007-04-18 Listed $94,000 MLSU
• 2007-01-07 Listed $83,000 MLSU
• 2006-02-03 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2005-06-01 Listed $79,900 MLSU
• 1997-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,562 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.