3 Saria Ln · Middlesex, PA 17015

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 995 sqft · Manufactured public records · 120 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $100/sqft · 47% above area Est $68k · 47% over $536/mo HOA · 30% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this practically brand‑new 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom home built in 2025 and beautifully designed with today’s most sought‑after features. From the moment you enter, you’ll appreciate the modern finishes and open, airy layout enhanced by durable and stylish LVP flooring throughout. The kitchen shines with stainless steel appliances, clean contemporary lines, and a seamless flow ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Every space feels fresh, updated, and thoughtfully crafted. Wake up each day to gorgeous mountain views that serve as the perfect backdrop for your morning coffee or evening unwind. The setting offers a sense of tranquility while keeping you close to everything you need. Located in the highly sought‑after Cumberland Valley School District, this home offers not only comfort and style but also an exceptional educational environment — a rare combination that makes this property truly stand out. Fresh, modern, and move‑in ready — this is the home you’ve been waiting for.

Key facts

• Mountain views
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2025

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.82%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,000
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 46.91%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,290
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $18,951
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17015

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $812/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$536
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $536 · $6,432/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-04-11
    price $99,900 1043-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1043 chars)

    Step into this practically brand‑new 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom home built in 2025 and beautifully designed with today’s most sought‑after features. From the moment you enter, you’ll appreciate the modern finishes and open, airy layout enhanced by durable and stylish LVP flooring throughout. The kitchen shines with stainless steel appliances, clean contemporary lines, and a seamless flow ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Every space feels fresh, updated, and thoughtfully crafted. Wake up each day to gorgeous mountain views that serve as the perfect backdrop for your morning coffee or evening unwind. The setting offers a sense of tranquility while keeping you close to everything you need. Located in the highly sought‑after Cumberland Valley School District, this home offers not only comfort and style but also an exceptional educational environment — a rare combination that makes this property truly stand out. Fresh, modern, and move‑in ready — this is the home you’ve been waiting for.

18. 2026-03-11
    price $104,900 1043-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1043 chars)

    Step into this practically brand‑new 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom home built in 2025 and beautifully designed with today’s most sought‑after features. From the moment you enter, you’ll appreciate the modern finishes and open, airy layout enhanced by durable and stylish LVP flooring throughout. The kitchen shines with stainless steel appliances, clean contemporary lines, and a seamless flow ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Every space feels fresh, updated, and thoughtfully crafted. Wake up each day to gorgeous mountain views that serve as the perfect backdrop for your morning coffee or evening unwind. The setting offers a sense of tranquility while keeping you close to everything you need. Located in the highly sought‑after Cumberland Valley School District, this home offers not only comfort and style but also an exceptional educational environment — a rare combination that makes this property truly stand out. Fresh, modern, and move‑in ready — this is the home you’ve been waiting for.

19. 2026-02-18
    listed $109,900 Active 1043-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1043 chars)

    Step into this practically brand‑new 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom home built in 2025 and beautifully designed with today’s most sought‑after features. From the moment you enter, you’ll appreciate the modern finishes and open, airy layout enhanced by durable and stylish LVP flooring throughout. The kitchen shines with stainless steel appliances, clean contemporary lines, and a seamless flow ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Every space feels fresh, updated, and thoughtfully crafted. Wake up each day to gorgeous mountain views that serve as the perfect backdrop for your morning coffee or evening unwind. The setting offers a sense of tranquility while keeping you close to everything you need. Located in the highly sought‑after Cumberland Valley School District, this home offers not only comfort and style but also an exceptional educational environment — a rare combination that makes this property truly stand out. Fresh, modern, and move‑in ready — this is the home you’ve been waiting for.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$383/yr (+$32/mo · 47.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$812
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − HOA: −$6,432
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,593
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$382
• After-tax cash flow: $2,364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2025-built home is practically brand new with modern finishes and an open, airy layout. It's move-in ready with no visible repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting — fresh paint can make a home more appealing
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — Middlesex

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,385
• Household income: $86,981
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.66%
• Current HPI: 265.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $104,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $109,900 BRIGHT MLS