1510 Clay Ave Unit A · Panama City, FL 32405

$137,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,179 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1971 3,877 sqft lot Est $224k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and affordably priced, this is the one you've been waiting for! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, colleges, and the hospital, with the beach just a short 15-minute drive away. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome is ready for its next owner. Downstairs features a spacious living room with large windows that bring in plenty of natural light, along with a kitchen and dining area with sliding glass doors leading to the back porch and yard. A half bath downstairs adds extra convenience. Upstairs, you'll find all three bedrooms and a full bathroom. Major updates include a 2020 HVAC system, 2020 roof, and 2020 water heater, as well as new windows upstairs and fresh paint, giving added peace of mind. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, investment property, or starter home, this one is worth a look!

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near dining
• Near shopping

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR COLLEGES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.25%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,010
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1619 Lincoln Ave	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,143 (-3%)	13mo	$238,000	$208	74
1303 Fairy Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+2%)	22mo	$279,000	$233	53
1712 Wilmont Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,211 (+3%)	22mo	$230,000	$190	52
1903 Arthur Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,069 (-9%)	13mo	$185,000	$173	47
2209 W 21st St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+5%)	19mo	$269,900	$218	43
1711 Wilmont Ave Unit 1/2	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-12%)	21mo	$180,000	$173	41
1903 Chestnut Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+10%)	18mo	$180,000	$138	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,185
• Equity at exit: $20,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $16,231
• Equity at exit: $11,888

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,328/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,231

Max offer price $137,500

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1301 Frankford Ave Apt B104 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,000	$1.28	13d	1	0.27mi
1804 Arthur Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1044	$1,795	$1.72	20d	1	0.39mi
1710 Drake Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,850	$1.64	20d	1	0.42mi
2602 W 12th St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,095	$1.50	20d	1	0.49mi
2100 W Beach Dr Unit F102 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	970	$1,700	$1.75	20d	1	0.71mi
1827 Balboa Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,800	$1.25	13d	1	1.12mi
3722 Burnham Way Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	20d	1	1.18mi
901 W 19th St Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,168	$1.48	20d	5	1.23mi
1913 Laurel Ave Unit A Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1238	$1,725	$1.39	13d	1	1.37mi
723 W 19th St Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,520	$1.30	20d	15	1.44mi
4105 W 22nd St Unit 4105 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	20d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $137,500 Active 844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (844 chars)

   Move-in ready and affordably priced, this is the one you've been waiting for! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, colleges, and the hospital, with the beach just a short 15-minute drive away. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome is ready for its next owner. Downstairs features a spacious living room with large windows that bring in plenty of natural light, along with a kitchen and dining area with sliding glass doors leading to the back porch and yard. A half bath downstairs adds extra convenience. Upstairs, you'll find all three bedrooms and a full bathroom. Major updates include a 2020 HVAC system, 2020 roof, and 2020 water heater, as well as new windows upstairs and fresh paint, giving added peace of mind. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, investment property, or starter home, this one is worth a look!

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $1,375
3. 2024-11-15
   historical $1,350
4. 2024-11-07
   listed $1,350
5. 2021-12-09
   historical
6. 2020-10-05
   soldstatus $105,000
7. 2020-03-17
   listed $110,000
8. 2013-10-08
   soldstatus $42,000
9. 2013-08-07
   listed $45,900
10. 2008-01-30
    listed $170,000
11. 2001-09-04
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,328 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,328 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$2,328
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable income: $2,296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$551
• After-tax cash flow: $3,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+154.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $137,500 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed for Rent $1,375 APPFOLIO
• 2024-11-15 Rental Removed $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2024-11-07 Listed for Rent $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2020-10-05 Sold (MLS) $105,000 CPARMLS
• 2020-03-17 Listed $110,000 CPARMLS
• 2013-10-08 Sold (MLS) $42,000 CPARMLS
• 2013-08-07 Listed $45,900 CPARMLS
• 2008-01-30 Listed $170,000 CPARMLS
• 2001-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,328 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.