1528 Love Grass Ter · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$419,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,034 sqft · Land · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 6,024 sqft lot $177/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. REDTAG SALE! Receive up to $20,000 towards closing costs, $5,000 towards upgrades and special interest rates with the use of our preferred lender - Now through Sunday, April 26th. Legacy Preserve is D. R. Horton's newest community located off of North Rye Road, just north of Upper Manatee River Road. All of our homes feature all-concrete block construction on the first and second floors and D. R. Horton’s state-of-the-art Smart Home Automation system. Leacy Preserve's first amenity center is currently under construction and will contain a clubhouse, resort-style pool, playground, dog park, fitness center and open lawn space for sports and activities.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Fitness center
• Clubhouse

Tags

• SMART HOME AUTOMATION SYSTEM
• CLUBHOUSE
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• DOG PARK
• FITNESS CENTER

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $419k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-320 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($406k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $307,084 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.27%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-97,317
• Equity at exit: $62,474

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-145,945
• Equity at exit: $36,227

Cash invested: $117,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,364/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$177
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,476

Max offer price $362,484

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,750
• Closing costs: $12,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16823 Destrehen Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,490	$1.43	3d	1	0.43mi
2726 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,200	$1.33	23d	1	1.12mi
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	23d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $177 · $2,124/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $419,000
3. 2026-04-09
   price $442,000
4. 2026-04-02
   price $444,000
5. 2026-02-27
   listed $445,990 Active
6. 2026-01-28
   soldstatus $1,050,600
7. 2025-11-04
   soldstatus $10,286,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,364 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,478 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,113/yr (+$93/mo · 47.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,471
• − Property taxes: −$2,364
• − Insurance: −$2,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,948
• − Management: −$2,948
• − HOA: −$2,124
• − Depreciation: −$12,189
• Taxable loss: −$11,289
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,709
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-95.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $419,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $442,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $444,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $445,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $1,050,600 Public Records
• 2025-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $10,286,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+42044.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,364 · +42044.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.