2608 Duncan Dr · Amarillo, TX 79109

$144,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,801 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1961 7,841 sqft lot $80/sqft · 10% below area Est $160k · 10% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers seeking a move-in ready property with room to add their personal style. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable and functional layout with a spacious living area filled with natural light. The primary suite features its own private bath, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or other needs. This home has been well maintained and just needs a few cosmetic updates to truly shine—perfect for those looking to customize finishes without taking on major renovations. Outside, enjoy a sizable yard with plenty of space for entertaining, gardening, or relaxing. Conveniently located in an established neighborhood near shopping, dining, and schools.

Key facts

• Sizable yard
• Private bath
• 7,841 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE BATH
• SIZABLE YARD
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Amarillo ISD (urban): math 44% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #336 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.

Recommended offer $140,601 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.13%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,443
• List price: $144,950
• Delta: -9.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,103
• Equity at exit: $21,613

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $29,593
• Equity at exit: $12,533

Cash invested: $40,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79109

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,753 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$357 /mo · $4,279/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,490

Max offer price $144,950

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,238
• Closing costs: $4,348
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3005 SW 28th Ave Unit C Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,700	$1.15	13d	1	0.31mi
3110 SW 27th Ave Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,482	$1.01	21d	1	0.50mi
3110 SW 27th Ave Amarillo, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$1,482	$1.37	13d	3	0.50mi
3610 S Austin St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,100	$1.16	43d	1	0.54mi
2030 Crockett St Amarillo, TX	3.0	1.5	1307	$1,750	$1.34	13d	1	0.74mi
4108 Crockett St Amarillo, TX	3.0	1.0	1373	$1,525	$1.11	43d	1	0.82mi
2104 S Travis St Amarillo, TX	3.0	1.0	1236	$1,700	$1.38	21d	1	0.83mi
2103 Parker St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$2,300	$1.76	21d	1	0.90mi
2108 S Hayden St Amarillo, TX	4.0	3.0	1951	$2,399	$1.23	21d	1	1.01mi
3719 Julie Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,675	$1.15	13d	1	1.05mi
3101 S Van Buren St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1922	$2,300	$1.20	13d	1	1.15mi
2709 S Van Buren St Unit 1 Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1787	$2,100	$1.18	13d	1	1.17mi
1611 Parker St Amarillo, TX	4.0	2.0	2401	$1,995	$0.83	43d	1	1.23mi
4316 S Hayden St Amarillo, TX	3.0	1.5	1356	$1,650	$1.22	43d	1	1.29mi
3205 S Tyler St Amarillo, TX	3.0	1.0	1381	$1,475	$1.07	13d	1	1.30mi
4109 Tucson Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,950	$1.40	21d	1	1.31mi
3118 SW 15th Ave Amarillo, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$900	$0.89	13d	17	1.37mi
1809 Chama St Amarillo, TX	3.0	1.0	1396	$1,600	$1.15	43d	1	1.44mi
4308 S Jackson St Amarillo, TX	3.0	1.0	1302	$1,490	$1.14	21d	1	1.48mi
4611 Cline Rd Amarillo, TX	4.0	1.5	1500	$1,500	$1.00	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-06
   price $144,950 765-char remark

   Show marketing remark (765 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers seeking a move-in ready property with room to add their personal style. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable and functional layout with a spacious living area filled with natural light. The primary suite features its own private bath, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or other needs. This home has been well maintained and just needs a few cosmetic updates to truly shine—perfect for those looking to customize finishes without taking on major renovations. Outside, enjoy a sizable yard with plenty of space for entertaining, gardening, or relaxing. Conveniently located in an established neighborhood near shopping, dining, and schools.

2. 2026-04-08
   listed $154,950 Active 765-char remark

   Show marketing remark (765 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers seeking a move-in ready property with room to add their personal style. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable and functional layout with a spacious living area filled with natural light. The primary suite features its own private bath, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or other needs. This home has been well maintained and just needs a few cosmetic updates to truly shine—perfect for those looking to customize finishes without taking on major renovations. Outside, enjoy a sizable yard with plenty of space for entertaining, gardening, or relaxing. Conveniently located in an established neighborhood near shopping, dining, and schools.

3. 2025-06-09
   price $565,000
4. 2021-09-10
   soldstatus
5. 2021-09-10
   soldstatus
6. 2021-06-16
   listed $165,000
7. 2020-11-06
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,279 · $357/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,279 · $357/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,119
• − Property taxes: −$4,279
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,683
• − Management: −$1,683
• − Depreciation: −$4,217
• Taxable income: $326
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$78
• After-tax cash flow: $2,411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amarillo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808130
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,478
• Composite: 35.96/100
• National rank: #4798
• State rank: #336 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amarillo, TX
• County: Randall County · 137,351 people
• City population: 185,802
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,578
• Household income: $70,435
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1640.0

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.95%
• Current HPI: 171.6795
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.24%
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $144,950 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $154,950 NTREIS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $565,000 AARMLS
• 2021-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-10 Sold (MLS) — AARMLS
• 2021-06-16 Listed $165,000 AARMLS
• 2020-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,279 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.