10540 Carloway Hills Dr · Balm, FL 33598

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,233 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 230 Days on market

Built 2010 8,079 sqft lot $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained, move-in-ready, 3 bed/2 bath/2 car garage, POND VIEW home! Located in the desirable Ayersworth Glen Community. Upon entering, you will be greeted with an open floor plan and vaulted ceilings. Luxury vinyl plank flooring has been recently installed and flows throughout the living areas and bedrooms. Neutral tile can be found in all wet areas - no carpet! The updated kitchen features medium wood cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, and a pass through with bar seating. Relax on your screened lanai and enjoy the privacy of the generously sized backyard with no rear neighbors. Updates include New AC 2022, Exterior Paint 2022, Interior Paint 2022, Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring 2022. The Ayersworth community features resort style amenities such as a clubhouse, community swimming pool, basketball court, fitness center, and dog park. Conveniently located within minutes of I-75, shopping, dining, and more.

Key facts

• Pond view
• Open floor plan
• Laminate flooring

Tags

• POND VIEW
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• VAULTED CEILING
• LARGE LOT
• COVERED LANAI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belmont Elementary School (math 42% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 987 students, 44% FRL); Jule F Sumner High School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 3,827 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.48%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-35,524
• Equity at exit: $44,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-46,463
• Equity at exit: $34,441

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,599 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$543 /mo · $6,519/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,489

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14471 Stagedoor Johnny Pl Ruskin, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$2,344	$2.06	3d	22	0.64mi
10313 Celtic Ash Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,005	$1.44	16d	1	1.08mi
10405 Apollo Manor Cir Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$3,163	$2.83	2d	31	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-19
   price $250,000
3. 2025-11-05
   status Active
4. 2025-08-06
   status Pending
5. 2025-06-27
   price $269,000
6. 2025-06-05
   price $289,000
7. 2025-04-09
   listed $299,000 Active
8. 2023-07-21
   soldstatus $320,000
9. 2023-07-14
   soldstatus $320,000 Closed 944-char remark

   Show marketing remark (944 chars)

   Well maintained, move-in-ready, 3 bed/2 bath/2 car garage, POND VIEW home! Located in the desirable Ayersworth Glen Community. Upon entering, you will be greeted with an open floor plan and vaulted ceilings. Luxury vinyl plank flooring has been recently installed and flows throughout the living areas and bedrooms. Neutral tile can be found in all wet areas - no carpet! The updated kitchen features medium wood cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, and a pass through with bar seating. Relax on your screened lanai and enjoy the privacy of the generously sized backyard with no rear neighbors. Updates include New AC 2022, Exterior Paint 2022, Interior Paint 2022, Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring 2022. The Ayersworth community features resort style amenities such as a clubhouse, community swimming pool, basketball court, fitness center, and dog park. Conveniently located within minutes of I-75, shopping, dining, and more.

10. 2023-05-31
    status Pending 944-char remark

    Show marketing remark (944 chars)

    Well maintained, move-in-ready, 3 bed/2 bath/2 car garage, POND VIEW home! Located in the desirable Ayersworth Glen Community. Upon entering, you will be greeted with an open floor plan and vaulted ceilings. Luxury vinyl plank flooring has been recently installed and flows throughout the living areas and bedrooms. Neutral tile can be found in all wet areas - no carpet! The updated kitchen features medium wood cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, and a pass through with bar seating. Relax on your screened lanai and enjoy the privacy of the generously sized backyard with no rear neighbors. Updates include New AC 2022, Exterior Paint 2022, Interior Paint 2022, Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring 2022. The Ayersworth community features resort style amenities such as a clubhouse, community swimming pool, basketball court, fitness center, and dog park. Conveniently located within minutes of I-75, shopping, dining, and more.

11. 2023-05-26
    listed $320,000 Active 944-char remark

    Show marketing remark (944 chars)

    Well maintained, move-in-ready, 3 bed/2 bath/2 car garage, POND VIEW home! Located in the desirable Ayersworth Glen Community. Upon entering, you will be greeted with an open floor plan and vaulted ceilings. Luxury vinyl plank flooring has been recently installed and flows throughout the living areas and bedrooms. Neutral tile can be found in all wet areas - no carpet! The updated kitchen features medium wood cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, and a pass through with bar seating. Relax on your screened lanai and enjoy the privacy of the generously sized backyard with no rear neighbors. Updates include New AC 2022, Exterior Paint 2022, Interior Paint 2022, Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring 2022. The Ayersworth community features resort style amenities such as a clubhouse, community swimming pool, basketball court, fitness center, and dog park. Conveniently located within minutes of I-75, shopping, dining, and more.

12. 2022-10-14
    soldstatus $332,500
13. 2022-10-13
    soldstatus $332,500 Closed 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Move-in ready and well maintained home with NEW AC in Ayersworth Glen! Entering home you find open concept plan with vaulted ceilings. Kitchen features wood cabinets, stainless steel appliances, quartz counters with pass through to living room. Master is split from secondary bedrooms with walk-in closet and private bath. Enjoy your morning coffee on covered and screened lanai with serene pond views. Ayersworth Glen is an established community with clubhouse, fitness center, resort-style pool and miles of sidewalks for exercising. Great location close to new Sumner High School, shopping, restaurants, hospitals, waterfront parks and I-75. Come check out this beauty and make it yours!

14. 2022-09-16
    status Pending 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Move-in ready and well maintained home with NEW AC in Ayersworth Glen! Entering home you find open concept plan with vaulted ceilings. Kitchen features wood cabinets, stainless steel appliances, quartz counters with pass through to living room. Master is split from secondary bedrooms with walk-in closet and private bath. Enjoy your morning coffee on covered and screened lanai with serene pond views. Ayersworth Glen is an established community with clubhouse, fitness center, resort-style pool and miles of sidewalks for exercising. Great location close to new Sumner High School, shopping, restaurants, hospitals, waterfront parks and I-75. Come check out this beauty and make it yours!

15. 2022-09-15
    status Pending 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Move-in ready and well maintained home with NEW AC in Ayersworth Glen! Entering home you find open concept plan with vaulted ceilings. Kitchen features wood cabinets, stainless steel appliances, quartz counters with pass through to living room. Master is split from secondary bedrooms with walk-in closet and private bath. Enjoy your morning coffee on covered and screened lanai with serene pond views. Ayersworth Glen is an established community with clubhouse, fitness center, resort-style pool and miles of sidewalks for exercising. Great location close to new Sumner High School, shopping, restaurants, hospitals, waterfront parks and I-75. Come check out this beauty and make it yours!

16. 2022-08-23
    listed $339,900 Active 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Move-in ready and well maintained home with NEW AC in Ayersworth Glen! Entering home you find open concept plan with vaulted ceilings. Kitchen features wood cabinets, stainless steel appliances, quartz counters with pass through to living room. Master is split from secondary bedrooms with walk-in closet and private bath. Enjoy your morning coffee on covered and screened lanai with serene pond views. Ayersworth Glen is an established community with clubhouse, fitness center, resort-style pool and miles of sidewalks for exercising. Great location close to new Sumner High School, shopping, restaurants, hospitals, waterfront parks and I-75. Come check out this beauty and make it yours!

17. 2022-08-12
    soldstatus $312,000
18. 2010-02-01
    soldstatus $22,000
19. 2009-10-26
    soldstatus $672,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,519 · $543/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,519 · $543/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,519
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,495
• − Management: −$2,495
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$2,946
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$707
• After-tax cash flow: $1,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 32,820
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-62.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-09 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-14 Sold (MLS) $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-26 Listed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $332,500 Public Records
• 2022-10-13 Sold (MLS) $332,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-23 Listed $339,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $312,000 Public Records
• 2010-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 2009-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $672,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,519 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.