17519 Jolly Boat Dr · Crosby, TX 77532

$207,250

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,766 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1982 9,374 sqft lot Est $260k · 20% under $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Jolly Boat, a fully renovated home that is move-in ready and waiting for you to make it your own. This beautifully updated property features new flooring, trim, doors, bathrooms, kitchen countertops, and cabinets, along with cabinetry throughout the home for added style and storage. The exterior trim has also been freshly painted, adding to the home’s refreshed appeal. With its open-concept layout, this home offers a bright and inviting space perfect for modern living.

Key facts

• Fully renovated home
• New flooring
• New cabinets

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED HOME
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW BATHROOMS
• NEW KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• NEW CABINETS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $207k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-142/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (1.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $207k).
• Recommended offer: $204k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $207k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,141 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,602
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17519 Jolly Boat Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,766 (0%)	1mo	$207,250	$117	99
17458 Jolly Boat Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,766 (0%)	2mo	$245,000	$139	94
1107 Cable Way	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-4%)	1mo	$219,900	$130	91
710 Razee Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,710 (-3%)	0mo	$255,000	$149	81
17226 Broken Back Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,706 (-3%)	1mo	$185,000	$108	81
17706 Craft Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-8%)	1mo	$242,000	$149	77
17131 Dorsal Way	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,701 (-4%)	2mo	$250,000	$147	67
17122 Yeoman Way	0.24mi	3/2.5	2,016 (+14%)	0mo	$240,000	$119	63
17247 Yeoman Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-14%)	1mo	$265,000	$175	62
426 N Compass Rose Cir	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (+6%)	2mo	$154,900	$83	57
17818 Abaft Ct	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,820 (+3%)	1mo	$284,990	$157	56
17202 N Lighthouse Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-8%)	1mo	$289,900	$179	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-37,367
• Equity at exit: $30,902

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-45,555
• Equity at exit: $17,919

Cash invested: $58,030 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,087
• Tax from tax record: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,161

Max offer price $205,165

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $47	+0% $-12	+5% $-70	+10% $-129
Rent	-10% $-181	-5% $-97	+0% $-12	+5% $73	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $41	base $-12	+0.5pp $-66	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,812
• Closing costs: $6,218
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16807 Lisbon Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	2196	$1,910	$0.87	45d	1	0.67mi
430 Fishhawk Way Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,783	$1.30	1d	1	0.84mi
1310 Stem Way Dr Crosby, TX	4.0	2.0	2346	$2,700	$1.15	4d	1	0.96mi
711 Equinox St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$1,881	$1.04	45d	1	1.14mi
16318 River Wood Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,946	$1.16	4d	1	1.19mi
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	26d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-18
   price $207,250
4. 2026-04-17
   price $207,500
5. 2026-04-16
   price $208,000
6. 2026-04-08
   listed $209,000 Active
7. 2026-03-12
   historical
8. 2026-03-08
   price $235,000
9. 2026-02-28
   listed $240,000 Active
10. 2026-02-19
    historical
11. 2026-02-10
    price $255,000
12. 2026-01-29
    price $260,000
13. 2026-01-14
    listed $269,000 Active
14. 2025-07-03
    soldstatus
15. 2015-12-28
    soldstatus
16. 2015-12-22
    soldstatus Sold
17. 2015-12-06
    status Pending, Continue to Show
18. 2015-10-29
    status Pending
19. 2015-10-17
    status Option Pending
20. 2015-10-09
    listed $125,000 Active
21. 2006-06-01
    soldstatus
22. 2004-04-21
    soldstatus
23. 2000-10-04
    soldstatus
24. 2000-10-01
    soldstatus $73,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,625 · $469/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,625 · $469/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,609
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,036
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$6,029
• Taxable loss: −$3,450
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$828
• After-tax cash flow: $686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+183.9% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $207,250 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $207,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $208,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-12-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-10-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-10-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-10-09 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2006-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,625 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.