4018 Santo Cielo St · Weslaco, TX 78596

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,544 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1997 3,601 sqft lot Est $244k · 16% under $83/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4018 Santo Cielo, a beautiful townhome in the exclusive Tierra Santa Golf Course Community in South Weslaco. Enjoy the security of a gated neighborhood and access to the large community pool. Love Golf food and drinks? This townhome is just steps from Tony's Grill this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,544 sq ft of living space with high ceilings, freshly painted walls, and a semi-open concept kitchen, living, and dining areas. The property features a rear entry 2-car garage and a low HOA fee of only $83 per month. Perfect for comfort, convenience, and a vibrant community lifestyle.

Key facts

• Gated neighborhood
• Community pool
• $83 HOA

Tags

• GATED NEIGHBORHOOD
• COMMUNITY POOL
• STEPS FROM TONY'S GRILL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $608 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.1% in Weslaco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#277 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Memorial El (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 1,075 students, 67% FRL); Central Middle (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 974 students, 70% FRL); Weslaco H S (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,147 of 1,632 statewide, top 71%, 2,553 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 708 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $219 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.70%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3817 Santo Cielo St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+2%)	7mo	$249,900	$159	86
3527 Sawgrass St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,370 (-11%)	3mo	$214,900	$157	65
3523 Sawgrass St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,333 (-14%)	2mo	$207,000	$155	61
3503 Emma Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	8mo	$225,500	$161	59
3505 Pinehurst St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,398 (-10%)	11mo	$199,900	$143	59
3409 Emma Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,607 (+4%)	10mo	$249,000	$155	59
3506 Emma Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-9%)	6mo	$218,000	$155	58
1421 Tierra Bella St	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+10%)	7mo	$315,000	$185	57
3617 Sawgrass St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,370 (-11%)	15mo	$219,500	$160	57
3521 Pinehurst St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-14%)	19mo	$209,000	$158	47
3501 Emma Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-14%)	19mo	$219,000	$165	40
3407 Emma Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,349 (-13%)	18mo	$210,000	$156	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $27,297
• Equity at exit: $53,607

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $95,014
• Equity at exit: $59,887

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78596

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 708
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$361 /mo · $4,331/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,031

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3818 Tierra Escondida Weslaco, TX	3.0	3.5	1846	$2,800	$1.52	44d	1	0.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   historical Option
3. 2026-02-18
   price $205,000
4. 2025-11-30
   listed $215,000 Active
5. 2025-08-14
   listed $215,000 Active
6. 2022-07-07
   soldstatus
7. 2007-07-24
   soldstatus
8. 2004-04-29
   soldstatus
9. 2000-07-25
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,331 · $361/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,331 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$4,331
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $4,425
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,062
• After-tax cash flow: $6,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weslaco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844960
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $32,867
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8196
• State rank: #705 of 826 in TX

Livability — Weslaco

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #277
• US rank: #6469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weslaco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,942

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 38% White 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 82%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 72%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.58%
• Current HPI: 261.5117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-12 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $205,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listed $215,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $215,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,331 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.