Joplin Plan · New Braunfels, TX 78132

$305,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,891 sqft · SingleFamily · 559 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 559 days

🏗️ New construction. The $305,499 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $333,499.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-687 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Creek El (math 53% / reading 57%, grade C, #602 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 765 students, 37% FRL); Church Hill Middle (math 64% / reading 60%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 748 students, 29% FRL); Canyon H S (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,348 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1526 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 559 days — a 12% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $204,817 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 559 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.82%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,499
• List price: $305,499
• Delta: -8.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5465 Paschal Park	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,891 (0%)	4mo	$317,999	$168	91
5481 Paschal Park	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (+6%)	4mo	$330,999	$165	75
5461 Paschal Park	0.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,142 (+13%)	3mo	$307,999	$144	61
988 Gray Cloud Dr	0.58mi	3/4.0	1,915 (+1%)	4mo	$349,990	$183	60
3673 Meteor Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,977 (+4%)	3mo	$364,990	$185	59
5489 Paschal Park	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,142 (+13%)	4mo	$315,999	$148	58
3621 Meteor	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,805 (-4%)	5mo	$365,000	$202	57
5488 Paschal Park	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,174 (+15%)	2mo	$329,999	$152	56
925 Gray Cloud Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-5%)	0mo	$369,990	$206	54
5541 Paschal Park	0.27mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,174 (+15%)	2mo	$328,999	$151	52
956 Tornado Rdg	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,086 (+10%)	3mo	$374,990	$180	51
3640 Space Cloud Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,692 (-10%)	4mo	$309,000	$183	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-103,748
• Equity at exit: $49,726

10-year hold

• IRR: -69.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-169,729
• Equity at exit: $28,835

Cash invested: $93,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.0 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $340,499 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 280 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78132

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 1526
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,048 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,749
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$417 /mo · $5,002/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-687

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,917

Max offer price $234,135

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-456	-5% $-571	+0% $-687	+5% $-802	+10% $-917
Rent	-10% $-848	-5% $-768	+0% $-687	+5% $-606	+10% $-525
Rate	-1.0pp $-519	-0.5pp $-602	base $-687	+0.5pp $-773	+1.0pp $-861

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,375
• Closing costs: $10,005
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5449 Paschal Park New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1891	$2,073	$1.10	28d	1	0.10mi
1233 Fox Wing Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2377	$2,500	$1.05	82d	1	0.18mi
105 Sky Country Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1895	$4,300	$2.27	139d	1	0.43mi
3640 Wet Cloud Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,295	$1.01	10d	1	0.61mi
3644 Cloud Dr Spc Cloud New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2191	$2,300	$1.05	43d	1	0.67mi
3632 Cloud Dr Spc Cloud New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,949	$1.03	10d	1	0.70mi
3612 Cloud Dr Spc Cloud New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1669	$1,850	$1.11	28d	1	0.75mi
6026 Ballast Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2359	$2,175	$0.92	7d	1	0.77mi
3629 Blue Cloud Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1877	$2,295	$1.22	110d	1	0.82mi
6114 Fusse New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2359	$2,236	$0.95	10d	1	0.88mi
3602 High Cloud Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,150	$1.16	10d	1	0.89mi
6120 Treadle New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2344	$2,495	$1.06	10d	1	0.93mi
6134 Ballast Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2040	$2,195	$1.08	43d	1	0.98mi
301 Tahoe Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	139d	1	1.06mi
298 Tahoe Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,595	$1.00	139d	1	1.06mi
245 Inyo St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1802	$1,775	$0.99	87d	1	1.15mi
241 Tahoe Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,599	$1.00	5d	1	1.17mi
226 Inyo St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,795	$1.19	43d	1	1.18mi
3248 Northwest Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$1,650	$0.98	10d	1	1.28mi
3248 Northwest Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$1,750	$1.04	43d	1	1.28mi
3215 Northwest Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1574	$1,750	$1.11	80d	1	1.31mi
3215 Northwest Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1574	$1,625	$1.03	100d	1	1.31mi
635 NW Crossing Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,650	$1.12	100d	1	1.39mi
620 Northgap Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,500	$1.19	139d	1	1.43mi
628 Arroyo Dorado New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2096	$2,050	$0.98	23d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $305,499 Active 559 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $305,499 Active 558 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $305,499 Active 557 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $305,499 Active 556 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $305,499 Active 555 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $305,499 Active 554 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $305,499 Active 553 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $305,499 Active 552 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $305,499 Active 551 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $305,499 Active 550 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $305,499 Active 549 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    pricedays on market $305,499 Active 548 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $302,499 Active 547 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $302,499 Active 541 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $302,499 Active 540 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $302,499 Active 536 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $302,499 Active 535 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $302,499 Active 534 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $302,499 Active 533 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $302,499 Active 532 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $302,499 Active 530 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $302,499 Active 529 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $302,499 Active 528 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $302,499 Active 527 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $302,499 Active 526 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $302,499 Active 525 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $302,499 Active 524 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $302,499 Active 523 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $302,499 Active 521 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $302,499 Active 520 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $302,499 Active 519 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $302,499 Active 518 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $302,499 Active 517 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $302,499 Active 516 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $302,499 Active 515 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $302,499 Active 514 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $302,499 Active 513 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $302,499 Active 511 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $302,499 Active 510 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $302,499 Active 509 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $302,499 Active 508 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $302,499 Active 505 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $302,499 Active 503 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $302,499 Active 502 DOM
45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $302,499 Active 500 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $302,499 Active 498 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $302,499 Active 497 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $302,499 Active 496 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $302,499 Active 495 DOM
50. 2026-07-20
    days on market $302,499 Active 494 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,681
• − Property taxes: −$5,002
• − Insurance: −$1,667
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,966
• − Management: −$1,966
• − Depreciation: −$9,702
• Taxable loss: −$14,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,458
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak Creek El C TX #602/4,322 Nat'l #9,637/41,679 Middle Canyon Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Canyon H S B- TX #237/1,632 Nat'l #3,220/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 175,637 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,953
• Household income: $135,315
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.57%
• Current HPI: 202.432
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $299,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $294,999 Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $339,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $344,999 Zillow
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $349,999 Zillow
• 2025-04-27 Price Changed $364,999 Zillow
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $371,999 Zillow
• 2025-03-13 Listed $381,999 Zillow