Joplin Plan · New Braunfels, TX 78132

$302,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,891 sqft · SingleFamily · 513 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 512 days

🏗️ New construction. The $302,499 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $335,128.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $302k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-659 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Creek El (math 53% / reading 57%, grade C, #602 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 765 students, 37% FRL); Church Hill Middle (math 64% / reading 60%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 748 students, 29% FRL); Canyon H S (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,348 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1368 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 92% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 513 days — a 12% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,715 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 513 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.43%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,128
• List price: $302,499
• Delta: -9.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5465 Paschal Park	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,891 (0%)	2mo	$317,999	$168	92
5481 Paschal Park	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (+6%)	2mo	$330,999	$165	77
5461 Paschal Park	0.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,142 (+13%)	1mo	$307,999	$144	62
988 Gray Cloud Dr	0.58mi	3/4.0	1,915 (+1%)	2mo	$349,990	$183	61
3673 Meteor Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,977 (+4%)	2mo	$364,990	$185	61
5489 Paschal Park	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,142 (+13%)	3mo	$315,999	$148	59
3621 Meteor	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,805 (-4%)	3mo	$365,000	$202	59
5488 Paschal Park	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,174 (+15%)	1mo	$329,999	$152	57
5541 Paschal Park	0.27mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,174 (+15%)	0mo	$328,999	$151	53
956 Tornado Rdg	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,086 (+10%)	2mo	$374,990	$180	52
5538 Wilder St	0.30mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,142 (+13%)	4mo	$336,999	$157	52
3640 Space Cloud Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,692 (-10%)	2mo	$309,000	$183	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-102,407
• Equity at exit: $49,969

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.78×
• Total profit: $-166,863
• Equity at exit: $28,976

Cash invested: $93,836 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.4 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,994 ($165/sqft)
• Median days on market: 148 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78132

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 1368
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$419 /mo · $5,027/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-659

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,932

Max offer price $239,734

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-428	-5% $-543	+0% $-659	+5% $-775	+10% $-891
Rent	-10% $-825	-5% $-742	+0% $-659	+5% $-576	+10% $-494
Rate	-1.0pp $-490	-0.5pp $-574	base $-659	+0.5pp $-746	+1.0pp $-834

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,782
• Closing costs: $10,054
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1233 Fox Wing Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2377	$2,500	$1.05	35d	1	0.18mi
105 Sky Country Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1895	$4,300	$2.27	93d	1	0.43mi
3640 Wet Cloud Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,450	$1.08	30d	1	0.61mi
3644 Cloud Dr Spc Cloud New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2191	$2,400	$1.10	31d	1	0.67mi
3629 Blue Cloud Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1877	$2,295	$1.22	64d	1	0.82mi
301 Tahoe Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	93d	1	1.06mi
298 Tahoe Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,595	$1.00	93d	1	1.06mi
245 Inyo St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1802	$1,775	$0.99	41d	1	1.15mi
241 Tahoe Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,640	$1.02	16d	1	1.17mi
3215 Northwest Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1574	$1,750	$1.11	34d	1	1.31mi
3215 Northwest Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1574	$1,625	$1.03	53d	1	1.31mi
635 NW Crossing Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,650	$1.12	53d	1	1.39mi
620 Northgap Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,500	$1.19	93d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $302,499 Active 513 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $302,499 Active 511 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $302,499 Active 510 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $302,499 Active 509 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $302,499 Active 508 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $302,499 Active 505 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $302,499 Active 503 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $302,499 Active 502 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $302,499 Active 500 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $302,499 Active 498 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $302,499 Active 497 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $302,499 Active 496 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $302,499 Active 495 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $302,499 Active 494 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $302,499 Active 492 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $302,499 Active 491 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $302,499 Active 490 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $302,499 Active 489 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $302,499 Active 488 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $302,499 Active 487 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $302,499 Active 486 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $302,499 Active 485 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $302,499 Active 484 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $302,499 Active 483 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $302,499 Active 481 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $302,499 Active 480 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $302,499 Active 479 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $301,499 Active 477 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $301,499 Active 476 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $301,499 Active 475 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $301,499 Active 474 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $301,499 Active 473 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    pricedays on market $301,499 Active 472 DOM
34. 2026-06-26
    days on market $300,749 Active 470 DOM
35. 2026-06-24
    days on market $300,749 Active 468 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $300,749 Active 466 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $300,749 Active 465 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $300,749 Active 462 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $300,749 Active 461 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $300,749 Active 460 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $300,749 Active 459 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $300,749 Active 457 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,999 Active 453 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,999 Active 452 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,999 Active 451 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,999 Active 448 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,999 Active 447 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,999 Active 446 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,999 Active 445 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,999 Active 444 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,772
• − Property taxes: −$5,027
• − Insurance: −$1,676
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − Depreciation: −$9,749
• Taxable loss: −$14,085
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,380
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak Creek El C TX #602/4,322 Nat'l #9,637/41,679 Middle Canyon Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Canyon H S B- TX #237/1,632 Nat'l #3,220/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 175,637 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,953
• Household income: $135,315
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.57%
• Current HPI: 202.432
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $299,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $294,999 Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $339,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $344,999 Zillow
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $349,999 Zillow
• 2025-04-27 Price Changed $364,999 Zillow
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $371,999 Zillow
• 2025-03-13 Listed $381,999 Zillow