The Sparrow II Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$289,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,397 sqft · SingleFamily · 239 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sparrow II offers great versatility with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room on the first floor. The primary suite at the back of the main level features a stylish en suite bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a large loft area, which can be converted into a fifth bedroom and a third bathroom. Enhance your backyard by adding a covered rear patio for the perfect outdoor space.

Key facts

• Large loft area
• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered rear patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STYLISH EN SUITE BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE LOFT AREA
• COVERED REAR PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $352,746.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-456 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $250,861 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.54%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,746
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -17.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15110 Rose Willow Ln	0.33mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,252 (-6%)	2mo	$299,990	$133	68
40722 Barley Straw Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,681 (+12%)	1mo	$349,990	$131	62
14735 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,180 (-9%)	5mo	$399,900	$183	62
40743 Barley Straw Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,681 (+12%)	2mo	$348,990	$130	62
15447 Park Perch Pl	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,502 (+4%)	1mo	$329,900	$132	59
40734 Barley Straw Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,041 (-15%)	0mo	$314,990	$154	58
14522 Montclair Way	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,261 (-6%)	2mo	$285,000	$126	57
15027 Baikal Teal Ter	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,558 (+7%)	3mo	$374,900	$147	53
15307 Mountain Plover Pl	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,064 (-14%)	1mo	$314,900	$153	43
15443 Park Perch Pl	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,064 (-14%)	2mo	$327,900	$159	43
15459 Park Perch Pl	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,061 (-14%)	2mo	$309,990	$150	41
15235 Tree Swallow Ct	0.55mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,688 (+12%)	5mo	$519,900	$193	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $156,525
• Equity at exit: $317,782

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $471,894
• Equity at exit: $685,309

Cash invested: $98,769 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,509 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,850
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$441 /mo · $5,291/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,086

Max offer price $286,770

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,187
• Closing costs: $10,582
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	43d	1	0.16mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	43d	1	0.32mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	43d	1	0.83mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	19d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 230 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,990 Active 225 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 223 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 222 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 221 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $289,990 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    The Sparrow II offers great versatility with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room on the first floor. The primary suite at the back of the main level features a stylish en suite bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a large loft area, which can be converted into a fifth bedroom and a third bathroom. Enhance your backyard by adding a covered rear patio for the perfect outdoor space.

15. 2026-05-04
    price $304,990 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    The Sparrow II offers great versatility with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room on the first floor. The primary suite at the back of the main level features a stylish en suite bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a large loft area, which can be converted into a fifth bedroom and a third bathroom. Enhance your backyard by adding a covered rear patio for the perfect outdoor space.

16. 2026-02-03
    price $301,990 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    The Sparrow II offers great versatility with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room on the first floor. The primary suite at the back of the main level features a stylish en suite bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a large loft area, which can be converted into a fifth bedroom and a third bathroom. Enhance your backyard by adding a covered rear patio for the perfect outdoor space.

17. 2026-01-16
    price $296,990 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    The Sparrow II offers great versatility with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room on the first floor. The primary suite at the back of the main level features a stylish en suite bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a large loft area, which can be converted into a fifth bedroom and a third bathroom. Enhance your backyard by adding a covered rear patio for the perfect outdoor space.

18. 2025-12-01
    price $293,990 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    The Sparrow II offers great versatility with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room on the first floor. The primary suite at the back of the main level features a stylish en suite bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a large loft area, which can be converted into a fifth bedroom and a third bathroom. Enhance your backyard by adding a covered rear patio for the perfect outdoor space.

19. 2025-11-04
    price $288,990 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    The Sparrow II offers great versatility with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room on the first floor. The primary suite at the back of the main level features a stylish en suite bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a large loft area, which can be converted into a fifth bedroom and a third bathroom. Enhance your backyard by adding a covered rear patio for the perfect outdoor space.

20. 2025-10-23
    listed $286,990 Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    The Sparrow II offers great versatility with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room on the first floor. The primary suite at the back of the main level features a stylish en suite bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a large loft area, which can be converted into a fifth bedroom and a third bathroom. Enhance your backyard by adding a covered rear patio for the perfect outdoor space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,103
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,759
• − Property taxes: −$5,291
• − Insurance: −$1,764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,408
• − Management: −$2,408
• − Depreciation: −$10,262
• Taxable loss: −$11,789
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,829
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for a new owner or tenant with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $301,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $296,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $293,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $288,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-23 Listed $286,990 Zillow