10064 Railroad St · Lake City, PA 16423

$79,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1900 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Money-making 3-unit property in Lake City with long-term tenants already in place! This solid investment opportunity offers immediate income potential with stable occupancy. Owner currently pays utilities. The property also features a detached garage that could generate additional rental income or be leased for storage

Key facts

• 3 unit property
• Detached garage
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• 3 UNIT PROPERTY
• DETACHED GARAGE
• IMMEDIATE INCOME POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $582 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#313 in PA, #2,785 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Girard SD (suburban): math 48% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #113 of 539 in PA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.24%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,670
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2523 Rice Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (+4%)	3mo	$150,000	$94	65
10074 Sampson Ave	0.29mi	4/1.5	1,616 (+6%)	20mo	$217,900	$135	58
1228 Cherry St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,416 (-8%)	4mo	$225,000	$159	55
10007 Martin Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,666 (+9%)	11mo	$245,000	$147	50
10320 Hall Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,328 (-13%)	7mo	$215,000	$162	48
2425 Maple Ave	0.35mi	4/1.0	1,724 (+13%)	20mo	$130,000	$75	46
10304 N Park Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,482 (-3%)	9mo	$220,000	$148	46
2318 Elk St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,334 (-13%)	12mo	$185,000	$139	46
9938 Martin Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,319 (-14%)	20mo	$180,000	$136	39
10335 N Park Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,518 (-1%)	22mo	$222,000	$146	37
10314 Rose St	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,700 (+11%)	14mo	$230,000	$135	26
10200 W Lake Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (+10%)	19mo	$199,900	$118	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $80,604
• Equity at exit: $71,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.31×
• Total profit: $208,182
• Equity at exit: $155,228

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16423

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $676/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $644

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-12
   listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$293/yr (+$24/mo · 43.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$676
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,326
• − Management: −$1,326
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $6,046
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,451
• After-tax cash flow: $5,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Girard SD
• NCES district ID: 4210740
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $47,089
• Composite: 47.42/100
• National rank: #2283
• State rank: #113 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #2785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, PA
• City population: 3,880
• Population (ZIP): 3,880

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.16%
• Current HPI: 252.0669
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-02-12 Listed $79,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

-9.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $676 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.