8990 County Road 2414 · Union Valley, TX 75474

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,118 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1983 1.80 ac lot $143/sqft · 43% below area Est $279k · 43% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Situated on 1.8 acres, this unique property features a picturesque pond that has provided years of enjoyment, including fishing and small boat use. Enjoy the tranquility of country living while being just 15 minutes from Lake Tawakoni. With its serene setting and natural beauty, the land offers endless potential for a new build or investment opportunity. the existing structure will require extensive renovation or removal and is being sold AS IS.

Key facts

• 1.8 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 42888; Subdivision: Crazy Horse Add # 2
• Financial info: No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces (driveway); 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water available; Outside city limits; Septic system
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Built in 1983
• Exterior features: Approximately 1.8-acre lot; Tank/pond on the property; Acreage setting; Directions: From Dallas take I30 East to FM3549, veer right on Corporate Crossing, left on 276, right on CR 2412, right on CR 2414

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One level home; One living area; One dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Septic system (on-site wastewater)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 1.6% in Union Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,287 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: D C Cannon El (765 students, 81% FRL); C B Thompson Middle (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 628 students, 77% FRL); Wh Ford H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 786 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,464 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.42%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,922
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -42.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $92,874
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $268,914
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75474

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,415 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,457/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $181	-5% $136	+0% $90	+5% $45	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-21	-5% $35	+0% $90	+5% $146	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $131	base $90	+0.5pp $49	+1.0pp $7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $199,000 Active 449-char remark
16. 1995-12-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,457 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,471/yr (+$123/mo · 101.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,457
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,358
• − Management: −$1,358
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$387
• After-tax cash flow: $1,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quinlan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836240
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,461
• Composite: 26.16/100
• National rank: #7271
• State rank: #610 of 826 in TX

Livability — Union Valley

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1287
• US rank: #22404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,671
• Household income: $64,103
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.95%
• Current HPI: 484.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $199,000 NTREIS
• 1995-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,457 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.