13223 Willow Oak Cir · Gulfport, MS 39503

$165,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 42 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot $165/sqft · 17% below area Est $199k · 17% under $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is well maintained, The Parker Traditional is a 2 story with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Granite counter tops, soft close and dovetail cabinetry, all stainless steel appliances including a refrigerator, smooth sufrace electric range, multi-cycle dishwasher & Microwave oven. Luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout- no carpet! front porch and 2 car driveway.

Key facts

• Soft close cabinetry
• Granite counter tops
• Dovetail cabinetry

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETRY
• DOVETAIL CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SMOOTH SURFACE ELECTRIC RANGE
• MULTI-CYCLE DISHWASHER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.89%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,282
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -17.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13669 Skye Ct	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,021 (+2%)	3mo	$165,000	$162	66
12442 Cox Rd	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,036 (+4%)	8mo	$187,500	$181	62
13350 Willow Oak Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,131 (+13%)	17mo	$186,000	$164	51
13700 Three Rivers Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+9%)	3mo	$159,900	$146	47
13709 Lawton Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,119 (+12%)	23mo	$184,900	$165	42
13429 Libby Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,135 (+14%)	21mo	$189,900	$167	41
123 W Chipwood Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+14%)	22mo	$185,000	$162	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,257
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $34,237
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,462

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $264	-5% $207	+0% $150	+5% $93	+10% $36
Rent	-10% $19	-5% $85	+0% $150	+5% $215	+10% $280
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $192	base $150	+0.5pp $107	+1.0pp $64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13070 Tracewood Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,400	$1.18	21d	1	0.55mi
14179 Debra Barbee Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,849	$1.34	21d	1	0.86mi
12450 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,295	$1.18	44d	1	1.01mi
13498 Dee Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,750	$1.24	44d	1	1.01mi
13459 Gorman St Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,649	$1.65	44d	1	1.03mi
13727 Fox Hill Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,800	$1.30	44d	1	1.13mi
14180 Oneal Rd Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	44d	2	1.26mi
12147 Prudie Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1100	$975	$0.89	44d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $165,000 Pending 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-05-05
   price $165,000 369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (369 chars)

   This home is well maintained, The Parker Traditional is a 2 story with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Granite counter tops, soft close and dovetail cabinetry, all stainless steel appliances including a refrigerator, smooth sufrace electric range, multi-cycle dishwasher & Microwave oven. Luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout- no carpet! front porch and 2 car driveway.

7. 2026-04-21
   listed $170,000 Active 369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (369 chars)

   This home is well maintained, The Parker Traditional is a 2 story with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Granite counter tops, soft close and dovetail cabinetry, all stainless steel appliances including a refrigerator, smooth sufrace electric range, multi-cycle dishwasher & Microwave oven. Luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout- no carpet! front porch and 2 car driveway.

8. 2023-05-12
   soldstatus Closed 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   Homebuyers across the Coast are falling in love with this newly designed floor plan! The Parker Traditional is a 2- story home with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Granite countertops, soft-close and dovetail cabinetry, all stainless- steel appliances including a refrigerator, smooth surface electric range, multi-cycle dishwasher & microwave oven. Luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout - no carpet! Designer bathroom mirrors, front porch and 2 car driveway. The Parker offers luxury for less!

9. 2023-04-04
   status Pending 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   Homebuyers across the Coast are falling in love with this newly designed floor plan! The Parker Traditional is a 2- story home with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Granite countertops, soft-close and dovetail cabinetry, all stainless- steel appliances including a refrigerator, smooth surface electric range, multi-cycle dishwasher & microwave oven. Luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout - no carpet! Designer bathroom mirrors, front porch and 2 car driveway. The Parker offers luxury for less!

10. 2023-01-23
    listed $179,990 Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Homebuyers across the Coast are falling in love with this newly designed floor plan! The Parker Traditional is a 2- story home with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Granite countertops, soft-close and dovetail cabinetry, all stainless- steel appliances including a refrigerator, smooth surface electric range, multi-cycle dishwasher & microwave oven. Luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout - no carpet! Designer bathroom mirrors, front porch and 2 car driveway. The Parker offers luxury for less!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$869
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$209
• After-tax cash flow: $2,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, 2-story home with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths is ready for move-in. It features modern finishes and a spacious layout, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Replace front porch railings — Improves safety and aesthetics.
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Replace front porch railings — Improves safety and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $165,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-21 Listed $170,000 MLSU
• 2023-05-12 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2023-04-04 Pending — MLSU
• 2023-01-23 Listed $179,990 MLSU