4498 Melissa Ct W · Jacksonville, FL 32210

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · Townhouse public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1987 3,049 sqft lot Est $181k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2BR/2BA townhouse in good condition. Home features stainless appliances in kitchen, newer carpet and centrally located near fine restaurants & malls.

Key facts

• Minutes from i-295
• Minutes from i-95
• Covered rear patio

Tags

• STUCCO AND FRAME CONSTRUCTION
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• MINUTES FROM I-95
• MINUTES FROM I-295
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Property is attached
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.07 acres; Property currently used as investment and residential

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Electric water heater; Refrigerator; Central heating and air
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $130k implies a 333% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.13%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7604 Melissa Ct N	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,193 (+0%)	2mo	$92,000	$77	85
4701 Playschool Dr	0.23mi	2/2.5	1,176 (-1%)	2mo	$140,000	$119	84
4795 Playpen Dr	0.33mi	2/2.5	1,295 (+9%)	0mo	$155,000	$120	67
7280 Sabal Ter	0.66mi	2/2.5	1,187 (-0%)	0mo	$179,990	$152	67
7278 Sabal Ter	0.66mi	2/2.5	1,187 (-0%)	0mo	$179,990	$152	66
7276 Sabal Ter	0.66mi	2/2.5	1,187 (-0%)	0mo	$189,990	$160	66
7274 Sabal Ter	0.67mi	2/2.5	1,187 (-0%)	0mo	$189,990	$160	66
7282 Sabal Ter	0.66mi	2/2.5	1,180 (-1%)	0mo	$209,990	$178	66
7270 Sabal Ter	0.67mi	2/2.5	1,187 (-0%)	0mo	$179,990	$152	66
7272 Sabal Ter	0.67mi	2/2.5	1,187 (-0%)	0mo	$184,000	$155	66
7268 Sabal Ter	0.68mi	2/2.5	1,180 (-1%)	0mo	$209,990	$178	65
7231 Sabal Ter	0.71mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+2%)	3mo	$183,000	$150	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-10,416
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,384
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32210

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,349 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,728/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,114

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $223	+0% $186	+5% $149	+10% $112
Rent	-10% $79	-5% $133	+0% $186	+5% $239	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $251	-0.5pp $219	base $186	+0.5pp $152	+1.0pp $118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7665 Jana Ln S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1193	$1,400	$1.17	24d	1	0.07mi
4418 Melissa Ct W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,300	$0.94	24d	1	0.10mi
4418 Melissa Ct W Unit Bedroom w/ private bath Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,250	$0.90	24d	1	0.10mi
7626 Melissa Ct N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1193	$1,390	$1.17	14d	1	0.13mi
7806 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,395	$1.16	17d	1	0.20mi
7806 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1153	$1,295	$1.12	8d	1	0.20mi
7818 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1153	$1,400	$1.21	3d	1	0.21mi
7875 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$1,650	$1.13	5d	1	0.23mi
7765 Highchair Ln Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1204	$1,375	$1.14	14d	1	0.24mi
7887 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1153	$1,600	$1.39	24d	1	0.24mi
7559 Proxima Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,499	$1.15	24d	1	0.26mi
7911 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1471	$1,740	$1.18	2d	1	0.27mi
4285 Melissa Ct W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$1,450	$1.10	15d	1	0.28mi
4706 Playpen Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1330	$1,321	$0.99	8d	1	0.28mi
4425 Jana Ln E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,690	$1.32	13d	1	0.29mi
7796 Playschool Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,375	$1.03	24d	1	0.32mi
7800 Playschool Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,361	$1.02	15d	1	0.32mi
7840 Playschool Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,398	$1.04	15d	1	0.33mi
7880 Playschool Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,495	$1.12	17d	1	0.34mi
4807 Playpen Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1204	$1,322	$1.10	3d	1	0.35mi
5018 Westchase Ct Unit 3 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$995	$1.36	24d	1	0.38mi
4448 Jade Dr E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1048	$1,329	$1.27	3d	1	0.39mi
7607 Indian Lakes Dr #1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	926	$986	$1.06	17d	1	0.41mi
5035 Westchase Ct Apt 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	8d	1	0.41mi
5120 Westchase Ct #1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	729	$945	$1.30	24d	1	0.42mi
5122 Ricker Rd Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	926	$995	$1.07	24d	1	0.43mi
5128 Indian Lakes Ct Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	926	$995	$1.07	13d	1	0.44mi
5136 Westchase Ct Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$950	$1.30	24d	1	0.45mi
7656 Mailes Ct Unit 202 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,225	$1.18	24d	1	0.46mi
7650 Mailes Ct #101 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1051	$1,200	$1.14	24d	1	0.46mi
5144 Westchase Ct Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$800	$1.07	24d	1	0.47mi
5147 Westchase Ct Apt 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$950	$1.30	24d	1	0.47mi
7632 Mailes Ct Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,290	$1.24	8d	1	0.47mi
4463 Melvin Cir W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	782	$1,780	$2.28	22d	1	0.48mi
5143 Indian Lakes Ct Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	920	$995	$1.08	13d	1	0.49mi
7655 Mailes Ct Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,365	$1.31	5d	2	0.49mi
7655 Mailes Ct Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,365	$1.31	8d	1	0.49mi
5224 Westchase Ct #3 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	776	$896	$1.15	20d	1	0.50mi
5150 Playpen Dr Unit 2-1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,225	$1.06	4d	1	0.50mi
7619 Mailes Ct Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,365	$1.31	5d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 629-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $130,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,728 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,728 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,728
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $157
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$38
• After-tax cash flow: $2,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 65,729
• Household income: $61,050
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3605.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.81%
• Current HPI: 281.2688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.11%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+171.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $130,000 realMLS
• 2011-01-05 Sold (MLS) $30,000 realMLS
• 2010-11-17 Listed $26,900 realMLS
• 1987-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,728 · +16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.