5016 Tonka Trl Trl · North Little Rock, AR 72118

$149,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,208 sqft · Other public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1976 9,147 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment opportunity. Left unit has just become vacant and ready for you to look at. The unit on the right can be viewed with notice. Both units are 3 nice size bedroom and 1.5 baths. The kitchen has a large pantry and the master bedroom has a walk in closet. All closets are good size. Two car covered parking. Two storage closets off of carport. Seller has never occupied the property so there is no sellers property disclosure. Call the listing agent to arrange to see the occupied unit.

Key facts

• Built 1976
• Listed 18 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Parking pads
• Utilities: Public sewer; Municipal electric service (Entergy)
• Home design: Metal and vinyl siding with stone accents; Architectural shingle roof
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (gas); Central cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; Outside storage area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($19/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.0% in North Little Rock — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#24 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• N. Little Rock School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #191 of 238 in AR (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,006 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pulaski County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $150k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,727 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-20,845
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,584
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72118

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,307 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,191/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,305

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $86	-5% $44	+0% $2	+5% $-41	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-50	+0% $2	+5% $53	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $40	base $2	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
119 Texas Ave North Little Rock, AR	3.0	1.5	1550	$1,425	$0.92	45d	1	0.79mi
5 Cliffwood Cir North Little Rock, AR	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,195	$0.72	24d	1	1.29mi
407 W 33rd St North Little Rock, AR	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,025	$0.70	45d	1	1.40mi
4612 N Cypress St North Little Rock, AR	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,450	$0.89	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $149,900 Take Backups 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   status $149,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Price Change 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Price Change 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Price Change 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   pricestatusdays on market $149,900 Price Change 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    statusdays on market $160,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 New Listing 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 New Listing 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 New Listing 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    remarks 232-char remark
15. 2026-06-03
    listed $160,000 New Listing 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,191 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,191 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,191
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$605
• After-tax cash flow: $624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: N. Little Rock School District
• NCES district ID: 0510680
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,325
• Composite: 19.69/100
• National rank: #8728
• State rank: #191 of 238 in AR

Livability — North Little Rock

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #5452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Little Rock, AR
• County: Pulaski County · 372,764 people
• City population: 55,470
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 22,913
• Household income: $49,559
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1149.0

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,378 people
• By 2030: 423,720 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 435,182 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 440,904 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 445,521 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 419,173 · +0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 42% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.1) · D 59.8% · R 37.7% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: 11.6pp · 2024: 22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.1 2020: D+22.5 2016: D+17.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.32%
• Current HPI: 180.6901
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.47%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+39.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $160,000 CARMLS
• 2018-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-27 Sold (MLS) $94,000 CARMLS
• 2018-10-25 Pending — CARMLS
• 2018-10-20 Listed $95,000 CARMLS
• 2017-12-31 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2017-02-03 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2016-12-31 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2016-05-25 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2016-05-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2015-11-06 Listed $115,000 CARMLS
• 2015-10-06 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2015-06-04 Listed $115,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,191 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.