2700 Saratoga Dr · Winchester, VA 22601

$185,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1972 0.45 ac lot $79/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * Multiple offers have been received. Highest and best offers due by 5pm on 4/22. * * * Calling all savvy investors, flippers, and developers—this is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for. 2700 Saratoga Dr presents a prime project in the established Rolling Hills Estates community within the City of Winchester. Situated on a fantastic corner lot with mature trees, this brick ranch offers endless potential for the right buyer with vision. The home has sustained fire damage and will require extensive renovation or possible demolition, making it ideal for those looking to rebuild, redesign, or start fresh. Opportunities like this don’t come around often in such a desirable in-town location. Bring your imagination and unlock the full potential of this property. Home is being sold strictly AS-IS, WHERE IS.

Key facts

• Extensive renovation
• In-town location
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MATURE TREES
• BRICK RANCH
• EXTENSIVE RENOVATION
• IN-TOWN LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#138 in VA, #4,429 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F.
• Winchester City Public School District (urban): math 52% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #73 of 131 in VA (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Frederick Douglass Elementary (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 325 students, 82% FRL); Daniel Morgan Middle (math 60% / reading 66%, grade B+, #134 of 342 statewide, top 40%, 613 students, 76% FRL); John Handley High (math 54% / reading 78%, grade B, #200 of 319 statewide, top 64%, 1,384 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 52% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Winchester city in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winchester County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,225 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.72%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $443,824
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -58.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
605 Lake Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	2,136 (-9%)	15mo	$507,000	$237	69
319 Beechcroft Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	2,538 (+8%)	10mo	$400,000	$158	64
2808 Saratoga Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,018 (-14%)	7mo	$420,000	$208	60
152 Harvest Ridge Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,444 (+4%)	0mo	$600,000	$245	57
425 Beechcroft Rd	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,056 (-13%)	9mo	$300,000	$146	57
2876 Packer St	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,523 (+7%)	9mo	$465,000	$184	52
610 Quartzite Cir	0.21mi	3/3.0	2,002 (-15%)	16mo	$440,000	$220	50
429 Beechcroft Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	2,004 (-15%)	17mo	$369,900	$185	50
2510 Windwood Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,068 (-12%)	2mo	$499,000	$241	50
143 Harvest Ridge Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,233 (-5%)	8mo	$540,000	$242	49
141 Harvest Ridge Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,447 (+4%)	16mo	$549,900	$225	45
2411 Windwood Dr	0.57mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,564 (+9%)	12mo	$572,000	$223	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,901
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $31,211
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22601

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,475/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,481

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $481	-5% $429	+0% $376	+5% $324	+10% $272
Rent	-10% $222	-5% $299	+0% $376	+5% $454	+10% $531
Rate	-1.0pp $469	-0.5pp $423	base $376	+0.5pp $328	+1.0pp $280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
578 York Ave Winchester, VA	2.0	1.5	2146	$1,300	$0.61	45d	1	0.21mi
813 Appleseed Ct Winchester, VA	2.0	2.5	1655	$1,800	$1.09	45d	1	0.88mi
824 Appleseed Ct Winchester, VA	3.0	1.5	2052	$2,200	$1.07	45d	1	0.91mi
2079 Honeysuckle Ln Winchester, VA	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,500	$1.43	45d	1	1.07mi
429 Circle Dr Winchester, VA	4.0	3.5	1680	$3,200	$1.90	45d	1	1.07mi
1929 Melvor Ln Winchester, VA	4.0	2.5	2424	$2,750	$1.13	45d	1	1.25mi
1829 Harvest Dr Winchester, VA	4.0	3.5	1920	$2,500	$1.30	45d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   * * * Multiple offers have been received. Highest and best offers due by 5pm on 4/22. * * * Calling all savvy investors, flippers, and developers—this is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for. 2700 Saratoga Dr presents a prime project in the established Rolling Hills Estates community within the City of Winchester. Situated on a fantastic corner lot with mature trees, this brick ranch offers endless potential for the right buyer with vision. The home has sustained fire damage and will require extensive renovation or possible demolition, making it ideal for those looking to rebuild, redesign, or start fresh. Opportunities like this don’t come around often in such a desirable in-town location. Bring your imagination and unlock the full potential of this property. Home is being sold strictly AS-IS, WHERE IS.

2. 2026-04-13
   listed $185,000 Active 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   * * * Multiple offers have been received. Highest and best offers due by 5pm on 4/22. * * * Calling all savvy investors, flippers, and developers—this is the opportunity you’ve been waiting for. 2700 Saratoga Dr presents a prime project in the established Rolling Hills Estates community within the City of Winchester. Situated on a fantastic corner lot with mature trees, this brick ranch offers endless potential for the right buyer with vision. The home has sustained fire damage and will require extensive renovation or possible demolition, making it ideal for those looking to rebuild, redesign, or start fresh. Opportunities like this don’t come around often in such a desirable in-town location. Bring your imagination and unlock the full potential of this property. Home is being sold strictly AS-IS, WHERE IS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$42/yr (+$4/mo · 2.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,475
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $1,587
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$381
• After-tax cash flow: $4,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winchester City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104050
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,544
• Composite: 48.23/100
• National rank: #2164
• State rank: #73 of 131 in VA

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #4429

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living B Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, VA
• County: Winchester City · 29,230 people
• City population: 62,070
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• Population (ZIP): 29,230
• Household income: $64,258
• Rent vs Own: 56.2% rent · 43.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1627.0

Population outlook (Winchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,693 people
• By 2030: 30,745 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 32,619 · +9.9%
• By 2050: 34,014 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 35,490 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 35,424 · +19.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winchester

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.2% · R 44.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.4pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+11.5 2016: D+3.5 2012: D+1.4 2008: D+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -245.80%
• Current HPI: 297.2882
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,475 · +30.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.