3406 Grassy Knoll Ct · Plant City, FL
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- —
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- —
Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- —
Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
- —
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- —
Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
- —
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- —
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +10.3/15.0
- Cash flow +6.4/30.0
- Schools +4.3/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- 1% rule +2.5/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- DSCR +0.7/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$410,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Under Construction. Farm at Varrea offers new homes in Plant City, located right off Midway Road, and less than 10 minutes from I-4. Easy access to the interstate provides a seamless commute to the large surrounding cities such as Tampa, Orlando, and Lakeland. Farm at Varrea, nestled among grand oak trees, provides a small-town, rural feel, yet allows homeowners to be immersed in all that Plant City has to offer. Just 11 minutes away, you'll find Downtown Plant City with a main street bustling with unique shops, restaurants, and entertainment. Not only is the community in a prime location, but it sits in the center of the Strawberry Capital, where the famous Strawberry Festival is held annually, bringing rides, vendors, and live entertainment to the city. Each home in this community is constructed with concrete blocks on 1st and 2nd stories, comes equipped with D. R. Horton’s Smart Home System and is backed by America’s #1 Builder since 2002. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information, including pricing, included features, terms, availability, and amenities, are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. Materials may vary based on availability. D. R. Horton Reserves all Rights.
Key facts
- Light filled kitchen
- Pond views
- Open concept layout
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $410k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-710 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (30.6% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (25.1% below list).
- Recommended offer: $285k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
- Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Knights Elementary School (math 52% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 623 students, 70% FRL); Marshall Middle Magnet School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,089 students, 69% FRL); Strawberry Crest High School (math 49% / reading 55%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,558 students, 44% FRL).
- Market conditions: 550 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $3,070/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 13567% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.75% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.21%
- Cash-on-cash
- -7.43%
- DSCR
- 0.67
- GRM
- 11.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $437,617
- List price
- $410,000
- Delta
- -6.31%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3909 Harvest Hearth Pl | 0.11mi | 4/3.5 (-1) | 2,794 (+4%) | 7mo | $473,490 | $169 | 74 |
| 3920 Harvest Hearth Pl | 0.16mi | 4/3.0 (-1) | 2,537 (-5%) | 8mo | $454,545 | $179 | 72 |
| 4005 Harvest Hearth Pl | 0.15mi | 4/3.5 (-1) | 2,794 (+4%) | 9mo | $479,490 | $172 | 71 |
| 3516 Rosewood Ramble Ct | 0.34mi | 5/3.0 | 2,605 (-3%) | 12mo | $413,990 | $159 | 70 |
| 3518 Harvest Gardens Loop | 0.63mi | 5/3.0 | 2,605 (-3%) | 0mo | $388,500 | $149 | 66 |
| 4316 Hidden Farm Dr | 0.62mi | 5/3.0 | 2,605 (-3%) | 2mo | $404,404 | $155 | 65 |
| 3507 Hazy Glen Ln | 0.46mi | 4/3.5 (-1) | 2,794 (+4%) | 2mo | $484,757 | $173 | 62 |
| 3501 Harvest Gardens Loop | 0.58mi | 4/3.0 (-1) | 2,756 (+3%) | 2mo | $429,990 | $156 | 61 |
| 3537 Golden Wheat Ln | 0.52mi | 4/3.5 (-1) | 2,794 (+4%) | 1mo | $459,000 | $164 | 61 |
| 3539 Golden Wheat Ln | 0.52mi | 4/3.5 (-1) | 2,794 (+4%) | 1mo | $505,940 | $181 | 60 |
| 4317 Hidden Farm Dr | 0.63mi | 4/3.0 (-1) | 2,756 (+3%) | 3mo | $432,202 | $157 | 58 |
| 3509 Harvest Gardens Loop | 0.57mi | 5/3.0 | 2,934 (+10%) | 1mo | $450,840 | $154 | 56 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -29.2%
- Equity multiple
- 0.03×
- Total profit
- $-111,448
- Equity at exit
- $61,132
- IRR
- -29.1%
- Equity multiple
- -0.34×
- Total profit
- $-154,361
- Equity at exit
- $35,449
Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 53 active · 52 under contract
- Months of supply
- 9.9 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $432,990 ($160/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 86 d
- This list price
- 40% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +2.5% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 33565
- Home prices YoY
- -24.7%
- Active inventory
- 550
- Price-to-rent
- 11.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,070 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$2,150
- Tax from tax record
- −$807 /mo · $9,683/yr
- Insurance
- −$171
- HOA
- −$8
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$645
- Net cashflow
- $-710
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-478 | -5% $-594 | +0% $-710 | +5% $-826 | +10% $-942 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-953 | -5% $-832 | +0% $-710 | +5% $-589 | +10% $-468 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-504 | -0.5pp $-606 | base $-710 | +0.5pp $-817 | +1.0pp $-925 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $102,500
- Closing costs
- $12,300
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 13 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3827 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2756 | $3,150 | $1.14 | 165d | 1 | 0.17mi |
| 3338 Shady Sunrise Loop Plant City, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2371 | $2,600 | $1.10 | 10d | 1 | 0.19mi |
| 3440 Ivy Hollow Dr Plant City, FL | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2605 | $2,750 | $1.06 | 165d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 3410 Ivy Hollow Dr Plant City, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1846 | $2,650 | $1.44 | 75d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 3809 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2964 | $2,800 | $0.94 | 165d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 2505 Victorious Falls Ave Plant City, FL | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2614 | $2,950 | $1.13 | 110d | 1 | 1.17mi |
| 2318 Allium Roseum Ln Plant City, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1817 | $2,450 | $1.35 | 10d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 2318 Allium Roseum Ln Plant City, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1817 | $2,450 | $1.35 | 15d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 2310 Victorious Falls Ave Plant City, FL | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2624 | $2,800 | $1.07 | 1d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 2310 Victorious Falls Ave Plant City, FL | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2624 | $2,800 | $1.07 | 46d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 4060 Radiant Mountain Dr Plant City, FL | 5.0 | 2.5 | 2415 | $2,600 | $1.08 | 10d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 3852 Northern Key Dr Plant City, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1936 | $2,599 | $1.34 | 120d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 4053 Radiant Mountain Dr Plant City, FL | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2614 | $2,850 | $1.09 | 2d | 1 | 1.36mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Financial info
- Total annual fees approx. $104.28
- HOA & community
- Has HOA; fees required (approximately $8.69 monthly / $26.07 quarterly)HOA includes maintenance of groundsCommunity amenities: association recreation (lease), dog park, fitness center, park, playground, pool, sidewalks, street lightsPets not allowed
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garage (2 spaces, approximately 20x20)Driveway parkingOn-street parking
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerElectricity available and connectedNatural gas availableCable available and connectedBB/HS Internet availableFiber opticsPhone availableSprinkler recycledUnderground utilitiesFire hydrant nearbyWater available and connected
- Home design
- Single family residenceResidential propertyCompleted/new constructionTwo levelsFaces southEntry on main level
- Construction
- Stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt in 2026 (new construction indicated)
- Exterior features
- SidewalkConservation areaOversized lotPond waterfront with water access and views (powerboats not allowed)
Interior
- Kitchen
- Built-in ovenRangeDishwasherMicrowaveRefrigeratorRange hoodExhaust fanBar fridgeIce makerKitchen reverse osmosis systemWater filtration/purifier systemGas water heater
- Bedrooms
- 5 bedrooms
- Flooring
- CarpetCeramic tileTile
- Bathrooms
- 3 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Attic ventilatorBuilt-in featuresCeiling fansLiving room/dining room comboSolid surface countersSplit bedroom layoutThermostatWalk-in closetsSkylight(s)AtticBonus roomDen/Library/OfficeFamily roomLoftStorage rooms
- Laundry & utility
- Laundry room (upper level)Inside laundryElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-10-28days on market $410,000 Active 181 DOM
-
2026-10-27days on market $410,000 Active 180 DOM
-
2026-10-26days on market $410,000 Active 179 DOM
-
2026-10-25days on market $410,000 Active 178 DOM
-
2026-10-24days on market $410,000 Active 177 DOM
-
2026-10-23days on market $410,000 Active 176 DOM
-
2026-10-22days on market $410,000 Active 175 DOM
-
2026-10-21days on market $410,000 Active 174 DOM
-
2026-10-20days on market $410,000 Active 173 DOM
-
2026-10-19days on market $410,000 Active 172 DOM
-
2026-10-18days on market $410,000 Active 171 DOM
-
2026-10-17days on market $410,000 Active 170 DOM
-
2026-10-16days on market $410,000 Active 169 DOM
-
2026-10-15days on market $410,000 Active 168 DOM
-
2026-10-14days on market $410,000 Active 167 DOM
-
2026-10-13days on market $410,000 Active 166 DOM
-
2026-10-12days on market $410,000 Active 165 DOM
-
2026-10-11days on market $410,000 Active 164 DOM
-
2026-10-10days on market $410,000 Active 163 DOM
-
2026-10-09days on market $410,000 Active 162 DOM
-
2026-10-08days on market $410,000 Active 161 DOM
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2026-10-07days on market $410,000 Active 160 DOM
-
2026-10-06days on market $410,000 Active 159 DOM
-
2026-10-05days on market $410,000 Active 158 DOM
-
2026-10-04days on market $410,000 Active 157 DOM
-
2026-10-03days on market $410,000 Active 156 DOM
-
2026-10-02days on market $410,000 Active 155 DOM
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2026-10-01days on market $410,000 Active 154 DOM
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2026-09-30days on market $410,000 Active 153 DOM
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2026-09-29days on market $410,000 Active 152 DOM
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2026-09-28days on market $410,000 Active 151 DOM
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2026-09-27days on market $410,000 Active 150 DOM
-
2026-09-25days on market $410,000 Active 148 DOM
-
2026-09-24days on market $410,000 Active 147 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $410,000 Active 146 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $410,000 Active 145 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $410,000 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $410,000 Active 143 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $410,000 Active 142 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $410,000 Active 141 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $410,000 Active 140 DOM
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2026-09-16days on market $410,000 Active 139 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $410,000 Active 138 DOM
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2026-09-14days on market $410,000 Active 137 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $410,000 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $410,000 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $410,000 Active 134 DOM
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2026-09-05days on market $410,000 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $410,000 Active 127 DOM
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2026-09-03days on market $410,000 Active 126 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $9,683 · $807/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $9,683 · $807/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $36,843
- − Mortgage interest
- −$22,966
- − Property taxes
- −$9,683
- − Insurance
- −$2,050
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,947
- − Management
- −$2,947
- − HOA
- −$96
- − Depreciation
- −$11,927
- Taxable loss
- −$15,775
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,786
- After-tax cash flow
- $-4,738/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This well-maintained single-family home in Plant City offers a good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint to enhance its curb appeal and attract more buyers.
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
- Rental Replace the ceiling fan in the bedrooms — Modern ceiling fans improve comfort and attract renters. ↑
- Both Clean the air filters — Clean air filters improve HVAC efficiency and indoor air quality, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Hillsborough
- NCES district ID
- 1200870
- Math proficiency
- 47% ▼ -8.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 50% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $50,622
- Composite
- 41.6/100
- National rank
- #3435
- State rank
- #41 of 73 in FL
Livability — Plant City
- Score
- 76/100
- State rank
- #227
- US rank
- #3587
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Plant City, FL
- County
- Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
- City population
- 68,525
- Metro
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 18,108
- Household income
- $73,414
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 7% of renters
Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,607,022 people
- By 2030
- 1,733,968 · +7.9%
- By 2040
- 1,979,565 · +23.2%
- By 2050
- 2,203,427 · +37.1%
- By 2075
- 2,667,893 · +66.0%
- By 2100
- 2,891,558 · +79.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (71%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 71% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
- Languages at home
- 80% English-only · Spanish 19%
Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -114.17%
- Current HPI
- 347.2475
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
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Price history
-99.3% since first listed8 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-06 Listed for Rent $3,000 STELLARMLS
- 2026-04-30 Listed $410,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-05-07 Sold (MLS) $399,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-03-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-03-07 Price Changed $399,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-02-28 Price Changed $404,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-02-02 Price Changed $413,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-01-19 Listed $410,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…