2314 California Rd · North Bay, NY 13316

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1999 3.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to country living! Check out this stunning 3 bed, 2 bath home on 3.3 acres with master suite, front & back porches to take in stunning sunsets. Perfect blend of serenity & comfort!

Key facts

• Master suite
• 3.3 acres
• Front porches

Tags

• MASTER SUITE
• FRONT PORCHES
• BACK PORCHES
• 3.3 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (32.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Camden Central School District (rural): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #504 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 868% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $125k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $120,065 (32.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.14%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $83,782
• Equity at exit: $161,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $257,426
• Equity at exit: $347,758

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13316

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,473

Max offer price $141,058

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-113	-5% $-164	+0% $-215	+5% $-265	+10% $-316
Rent	-10% $-310	-5% $-262	+0% $-215	+5% $-167	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-125	-0.5pp $-169	base $-215	+0.5pp $-261	+1.0pp $-308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-24
   price $179,000
3. 2026-02-16
   price $185,000
4. 2026-02-16
   listed $18,500 Active
5. 2022-08-23
   soldstatus $125,000
6. 2021-05-14
   soldstatus $86,000
7. 2008-08-13
   historical
8. 2008-05-14
   listed $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,800 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,413 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$612/yr (+$51/mo · 34.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$5,827
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,398
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606240
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,686
• Composite: 35.15/100
• National rank: #5008
• State rank: #504 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Bay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 35
• Population (ZIP): 5,924

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.23%
• Current HPI: 316.4996
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+198.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $179,000 CNYIS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $185,000 CNYIS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $18,500 CNYIS
• 2022-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2008-08-13 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2008-05-14 Listed $60,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,800 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.