158 Holcomb Carroll Rd · Picayune, MS 39426

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1964 2.94 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special on 2.942 Beautiful Acres in the PRC School District! Opportunity awaits with this 1964-built home situated on approximately 3 scenic acres. This property features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and offers endless potential for those looking to renovate, restore, or invest. Nestled on a spacious, picturesque lot, the land provides plenty of room to expand, garden, or simply enjoy peaceful country living—all within the highly sought-after PRC School District. The home is in need of repairs and is being sold as-is, making it an ideal project for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home to their own taste. With the right vision, this property could truly sh

Key facts

• 2.94 acre lot
• Built 1964

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.3% in Picayune — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#11 in MS, #3,748 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment F.
• Pearl River County School District (rural): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #35 of 130 in MS (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 321 active listings in the ZIP; 326 units permitted in Pearl River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pearl River County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.10%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,408
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
396 George Ford Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	5mo	$240,000	$182	59
401 George Ford Rd	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,154 (-7%)	2mo	$210,000	$182	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-7,837
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $6,085
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39426

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $233	-5% $195	+0% $157	+5% $119	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $65	-5% $111	+0% $157	+5% $202	+10% $248
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $185	base $157	+0.5pp $128	+1.0pp $99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-26
   listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,114
• − Management: −$1,114
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $135
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$32
• After-tax cash flow: $1,846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearl River County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803540
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,916
• Composite: 35.44/100
• National rank: #4931
• State rank: #35 of 130 in MS

Livability — Picayune

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #3748

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,555

Population outlook (Pearl River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,426 people
• By 2030: 51,663 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 47,611 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 43,286 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 32,859 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 22,476 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pearl River

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.1% · R 82.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -60.4pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+60.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.24%
• Current HPI: 158.3694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — PRCBOR
• 2026-03-27 Contingent — PRCBOR
• 2026-03-26 Listed $110,000 PRCBOR