8649 McGirts Village Ln · Jacksonville, FL 32244

$175,017

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,334 sqft · Townhouse

Built 2008 Est $193k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great townhome, upgraded and painted. Well maintained.

Key facts

• Built 2008

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-297/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gregory Drive Elementary School (math 26% / reading 23%, grade F, #2,037 of 2,144 statewide, top 96%, 530 students, 76% FRL); Charger Academy (math 33% / reading 26%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 961 students, 71% FRL); Edward H. White High School (math 31% / reading 25%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,538 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 49% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,970 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,430
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8649 McGirts Village Ln	0.00mi	2/2.5	1,334 (0%)	2mo	$175,017	$131	99
8503 McGirts Village Ln	0.01mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,325 (-1%)	2mo	$184,900	$140	92
8516 McGirts Village Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,325 (-1%)	13mo	$209,020	$158	82
8512 McGirts Village Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,325 (-1%)	14mo	$209,020	$158	81
8504 McGirts Village Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,325 (-1%)	14mo	$209,700	$158	81
8510 McGirts Village Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,325 (-1%)	15mo	$204,900	$155	80
8426 McGirts Village Ln	0.12mi	2/2.5	1,319 (-1%)	16mo	$162,500	$123	79
8508 McGirts Village Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,325 (-1%)	19mo	$207,500	$157	77
8420 Mcgirts Village Ln	0.13mi	2/2.5	1,319 (-1%)	22mo	$180,000	$136	74
5938 Brannon Ave	0.54mi	2/1.5	1,146 (-14%)	3mo	$100,000	$87	45
8312 Homeport Ct	0.48mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,518 (+14%)	22mo	$220,000	$145	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-31,037
• Equity at exit: $26,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-33,504
• Equity at exit: $15,132

Cash invested: $49,005 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32244

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $171,437

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $36	+0% $-25	+5% $-85	+10% $-146
Rent	-10% $-143	-5% $-84	+0% $-25	+5% $34	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $20	base $-25	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,754
• Closing costs: $5,251
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8493 McGirts Village Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,381	$1.04	23d	1	0.06mi
8485 McGirts Village Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,381	$1.04	25d	1	0.08mi
8460 McGirts Village Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,482	$1.12	9d	1	0.11mi
8443 McGirts Village Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,381	$1.04	9d	1	0.12mi
8419 McGirts Village Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,400	$1.06	3d	1	0.16mi
8402 McGirts Village Ln Unit 7E Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1319	$1,198	$0.91	9d	1	0.19mi
8727 Osteen St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,546	$1.26	12d	1	0.23mi
8515 Maple St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,499	$1.19	4d	1	0.31mi
8518 Maple St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,623	$1.11	18d	1	0.34mi
8341 Homeport Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1296	$1,800	$1.39	25d	1	0.48mi
8325 Homeport Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,575	$1.04	19d	1	0.48mi
8329 Homeport Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1281	$1,695	$1.32	16d	1	0.48mi
5937 Camaro Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1052	$1,595	$1.52	25d	1	0.52mi
8148 Metto Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,576	$1.30	4d	1	0.52mi
4782 Cinnamon Fern Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,915	$1.18	4d	1	0.54mi
8121 Cheryl Ann Ln Unit Le Sabre Townhouse Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$1,950	$1.22	5d	1	0.63mi
8050 103rd St Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,250	$1.22	3d	11	0.65mi
7978 Renault Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,850	$1.71	25d	1	0.81mi
7948 Austin Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,775	$1.33	6d	1	0.83mi
7947 Renault Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,500	$1.17	19d	1	0.84mi
5150 Playpen Dr #4 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,200	$1.07	23d	1	0.85mi
5150 Playpen Dr Unit 2-1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,225	$1.06	5d	1	0.85mi
7901 Austin Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,815	$1.43	25d	1	0.88mi
4807 Playpen Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1204	$1,322	$1.10	4d	1	0.90mi
4706 Playpen Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1330	$1,321	$0.99	9d	1	0.90mi
7911 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1471	$1,740	$1.18	3d	1	0.91mi
7880 Playschool Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,495	$1.12	18d	1	0.91mi
7887 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1153	$1,600	$1.39	25d	1	0.93mi
7851 Playschool Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1508	$1,600	$1.06	25d	1	0.95mi
7875 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$1,650	$1.13	6d	1	0.95mi
7840 Playschool Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,398	$1.04	16d	1	0.95mi
7800 Playschool Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,361	$1.02	16d	1	0.99mi
7796 Playschool Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,375	$1.03	25d	1	0.99mi
7818 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1153	$1,400	$1.21	4d	1	1.00mi
9359 103rd St Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	848	$1,214	$1.43	3d	1	1.00mi
7806 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1153	$1,295	$1.12	9d	1	1.01mi
7806 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,395	$1.16	18d	1	1.01mi
8368 Geoffrey Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1104	$1,730	$1.57	25d	1	1.01mi
5332 Westchase Ct Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	15d	1	1.02mi
7765 Highchair Ln Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1204	$1,375	$1.14	15d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-11-18
   listed $175,017
2. 2025-11-18
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,804
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$787
• After-tax cash flow: $490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 63,592
• Household income: $62,204
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2799.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.22%
• Current HPI: 296.5375
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-18 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $175,017 realMLS