4327 Warm Springs Way · Middleburg, FL 32068

$259,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,705 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2020 7,405 sqft lot Est $298k · 13% under $7/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this 2020 split floor plan 4 bedroom, 2 bath home in a heavily sought after neighborhood! Why wait for new contractions with you can have Like-New Construction without the wait. Boasting an open floorpan, eat in kitchen area, indoor laundry room and plenty of space for family and friends - this home won't disappoint. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Split-bed floorplan
• Ceiling fans
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• SPLIT-BED FLOORPLAN
• GENEROUSLY-SIZED KITCHEN
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• CEILING FANS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Middleburg Elementary School (math 65% / reading 61%, grade B, #582 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 559 students, 100% FRL); Wilkinson Junior High School (math 54% / reading 49%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 752 students, 100% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 35% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,556 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,375
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4068 Great Falls Loop	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,705 (0%)	2mo	$295,000	$173	85
4085 Great Falls Loop	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (+0%)	2mo	$295,000	$172	79
4323 Warm Springs Way	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,856 (+9%)	10mo	$308,000	$166	77
4318 Warm Springs Way	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,490 (-13%)	5mo	$250,000	$168	73
4298 Warm Springs Way	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,488 (-13%)	6mo	$285,000	$192	70
4445 Warm Springs Way	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-8%)	8mo	$255,000	$162	67
1865 Woodland Glen Rd	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,756 (+3%)	3mo	$305,000	$174	67
1866 Reed Valley Way	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,741 (+2%)	5mo	$307,650	$177	64
4060 Great Falls Loop	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-8%)	5mo	$275,000	$175	64
4228 Great Falls Loop	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,798 (+6%)	1mo	$335,000	$186	64
3994 Great Falls Loop	0.45mi	4/3.0	1,833 (+8%)	3mo	$335,000	$183	60
4188 Great Falls Loop	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-10%)	0mo	$287,000	$187	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-49,838
• Equity at exit: $38,692

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-50,755
• Equity at exit: $22,437

Cash invested: $72,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,296 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,361
• Tax from tax record: −$475 /mo · $5,695/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,469

Max offer price $235,284

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-64	+0% $-137	+5% $-211	+10% $-284
Rent	-10% $-318	-5% $-228	+0% $-137	+5% $-46	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-71	base $-137	+0.5pp $-204	+1.0pp $-273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,875
• Closing costs: $7,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1944 Rock Springs Way Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,020	$1.09	6d	1	0.37mi
1892 High Prairie Ln Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.5	2013	$2,200	$1.09	6d	1	0.44mi
2234 Windward Cay Ln Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,730	$0.97	25d	1	0.88mi
2113 Windward Cay Ln Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1707	$1,750	$1.03	9d	1	0.99mi
931 Voyager Trl Middleburg, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1618	$2,147	$1.33	3d	6	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-20
   price $259,500
4. 2026-02-13
   listed $272,000 Active
5. 2024-02-24
   historical 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   Welcome home to this 2020 split floor plan 4 bedroom, 2 bath home in a heavily sought after neighborhood! Why wait for new contractions with you can have Like-New Construction without the wait. Boasting an open floorpan, eat in kitchen area, indoor laundry room and plenty of space for family and friends - this home won't disappoint. Schedule your showing today!

6. 2024-01-23
   price $299,900 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   Welcome home to this 2020 split floor plan 4 bedroom, 2 bath home in a heavily sought after neighborhood! Why wait for new contractions with you can have Like-New Construction without the wait. Boasting an open floorpan, eat in kitchen area, indoor laundry room and plenty of space for family and friends - this home won't disappoint. Schedule your showing today!

7. 2024-01-13
   listed $310,000 Active 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   Welcome home to this 2020 split floor plan 4 bedroom, 2 bath home in a heavily sought after neighborhood! Why wait for new contractions with you can have Like-New Construction without the wait. Boasting an open floorpan, eat in kitchen area, indoor laundry room and plenty of space for family and friends - this home won't disappoint. Schedule your showing today!

8. 2023-03-20
   historical 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Welcome home to this 2020 split floor plan home. Looking for a newer home but don't want to wait on the build time ? You are in luck ! Home is in heavily sought after neighborhood.Seller is motivated, offering $10,000 toward buyers closing cost with full price offer.

9. 2023-03-10
   price $310,000 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Welcome home to this 2020 split floor plan home. Looking for a newer home but don't want to wait on the build time ? You are in luck ! Home is in heavily sought after neighborhood.Seller is motivated, offering $10,000 toward buyers closing cost with full price offer.

10. 2023-02-13
    listed $319,000 Active 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Welcome home to this 2020 split floor plan home. Looking for a newer home but don't want to wait on the build time ? You are in luck ! Home is in heavily sought after neighborhood.Seller is motivated, offering $10,000 toward buyers closing cost with full price offer.

11. 2020-06-10
    soldstatus $225,990 Sold
12. 2020-04-29
    status Pending
13. 2020-04-09
    price $230,990
14. 2020-03-18
    listed $229,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,695 · $475/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,695 · $475/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,536
• − Property taxes: −$5,695
• − Insurance: −$1,298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,204
• − Management: −$2,204
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$7,549
• Taxable loss: −$6,023
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,445
• After-tax cash flow: $-200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+12.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-24 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $259,500 realMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $272,000 realMLS
• 2024-02-24 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-01-23 Price Changed $299,900 realMLS
• 2024-01-13 Listed $310,000 realMLS
• 2023-03-20 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-03-10 Price Changed $310,000 realMLS
• 2023-02-13 Listed $319,000 realMLS
• 2020-06-10 Sold (MLS) $225,990 realMLS
• 2020-04-29 Pending — realMLS
• 2020-04-09 Price Changed $230,990 realMLS
• 2020-03-18 Listed $229,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+37.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,695 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.