3950 Mack Rd #70 · Sacramento, CA 95823

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 1983 $112/sqft · 13% above area Est $133k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an open layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The living room sits to the right and is anchored by an electric fireplace, offering a comfortable setting for daily use. To the left, the kitchen and dining area are thoughtfully positioned, making both daily routines and hosting feel effortless. The kitchen features a breakfast bar with pendant lighting and generous cabinet storage. Recent updates include a new HVAC system (2025) and water heater (2024). The primary suite includes an ensuite bath with a jetted soaking tub, separate shower stall, and a layout designed for both comfort and function. Along the side of the home, a covered

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Clubhouse
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• COVERED PORCH
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $871 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 181 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.88%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,003
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 12.78%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3950 Mack Rd #13	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	24mo	$119,000	$89	75
3950 Mack Rd #186	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+5%)	13mo	$205,413	$146	73
3950 Mack Rd #66	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-14%)	3mo	$149,000	$129	67
3950 Mack Rd #20	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	18mo	$144,600	$126	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $24,658
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $67,744
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95823

• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,210 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $315/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $871

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,108

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $956	-5% $913	+0% $871	+5% $658	+10% $606
Rent	-10% $696	-5% $784	+0% $871	+5% $958	+10% $1,045
Rate	-1.0pp $946	-0.5pp $909	base $871	+0.5pp $832	+1.0pp $792

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7726 Laurie Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1069	$2,075	$1.94	8d	1	0.19mi
7570 Wrenwood Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,395	$1.56	44d	1	0.34mi
4074 Weymouth Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,498	$2.08	18d	1	0.50mi
4066 Weymouth Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1323	$1,900	$1.44	44d	1	0.52mi
7826 Brizio Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1616	$2,950	$1.83	3d	1	0.73mi
4400 Shining Star Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1225	$2,254	$1.84	44d	1	0.80mi
3249 Torrance Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1258	$2,599	$2.07	24d	1	0.85mi
7638 24th St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	976	$1,900	$1.95	44d	1	0.98mi
4407 Bouts Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	44d	1	0.99mi
4623 Goya Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,400	$1.93	44d	1	1.00mi
4264 Chinquapin Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,195	$2.44	44d	1	1.01mi
26 Nedra Ct Unit A1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,650	$1.68	20d	1	1.07mi
26 Nedra Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,650	$1.68	44d	1	1.07mi
4417 A Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,200	$1.53	44d	1	1.09mi
4985 Valley Hi Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1507	$2,300	$1.53	44d	1	1.30mi
4812 D Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1505	$2,295	$1.52	24d	1	1.34mi
7236 East Pkwy Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	776	$1,645	$2.12	3d	1	1.39mi
7238 East Pkwy Apt B5 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,645	$1.61	8d	1	1.39mi
7640 Walsh Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,695	$2.07	44d	1	1.48mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $315 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,140 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$825/yr (+$69/mo · 262.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$315
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $8,450
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,028
• After-tax cash flow: $8,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 83,607
• Household income: $66,895
• Rent vs Own: 52.4% rent · 47.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4034.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Asian 25% Black 17% Two or more races 16% White 11% Pacific Islander 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 9% Other Indo-European 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -331.02%
• Current HPI: 377.4278
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.02%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $315 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.