135 Kiowa Trl · Lockhart, TX 78644

$75,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2012 ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential at 135 Kiowa Trl! This 1,568 sqft home in Lockhart ISD offers a spacious layout with a breakfast bar kitchen and primary suite garden tub. While it’s ready for some updates and personal touches, it serves as a fantastic value-add opportunity for your next project. Featuring city utilities and a level lot with existing decks, this property is a great canvas for those looking to build equity. Unlock the value today!

Key facts

• Existing decks
• Level lot
• Built 2012

Tags

• BREAKFAST BAR KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE GARDEN TUB
• LEVEL LOT
• EXISTING DECKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.8% vs local median 3.0% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.96%
• DSCR: 3.62
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $53,558
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.25×
• Total profit: $131,243
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,897 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $507/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $1,032

Break-even live

Break-even rent $591

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,074	-5% $1,053	+0% $1,032	+5% $1,011	+10% $989
Rent	-10% $882	-5% $957	+0% $1,032	+5% $1,107	+10% $1,182
Rate	-1.0pp $1,070	-0.5pp $1,051	base $1,032	+0.5pp $1,012	+1.0pp $993

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Tonkawa Trl Unit 150 Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,499	$1.23	45d	1	0.15mi
606 Guadalimar St Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1036	$1,700	$1.64	45d	1	0.43mi
1100 Monte Vista Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,850	$1.60	19d	1	0.47mi
1309 Monte Vista Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,550	$1.15	45d	1	0.62mi
1207 Camden Ln Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1544	$1,799	$1.17	16d	1	0.97mi
210 Addison Pl Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1542	$1,845	$1.20	45d	1	0.97mi
100 N Brazos St Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	1299	$1,600	$1.23	25d	1	1.02mi
1327 Camden Ln Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,950	$1.10	46d	1	1.09mi
117 Quail Cv Unit A Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,575	$1.26	19d	1	1.12mi
1337 Camden Ln Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1544	$1,800	$1.17	25d	1	1.16mi
1314 Prescott Pl Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,190	$1.23	45d	1	1.18mi
331 N Richland Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,800	$1.41	45d	1	1.24mi
1702 Miller Ter Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,895	$1.51	45d	1	1.26mi
413 Abbey Ln Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,750	$1.35	25d	1	1.27mi
221 Wirecrested Dr Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.5	1816	$2,190	$1.21	0d	1	1.30mi
305 Wirecrested Dr Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.5	1816	$2,190	$1.21	6d	1	1.31mi
903 E Live Oak St Unit B Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	45d	1	1.33mi
1712 W San Antonio St Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.5	1575	$1,710	$1.09	0d	6	1.40mi
750 S Main St Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,850	$1.34	45d	1	1.42mi
543 Christopher Cv Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1830	$2,000	$1.09	12d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $75,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $75,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $75,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-04-29
   price $75,000 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   Discover the potential at 135 Kiowa Trl! This 1,568 sqft home in Lockhart ISD offers a spacious layout with a breakfast bar kitchen and primary suite garden tub. While it’s ready for some updates and personal touches, it serves as a fantastic value-add opportunity for your next project. Featuring city utilities and a level lot with existing decks, this property is a great canvas for those looking to build equity. Unlock the value today!

10. 2026-04-22
    price $85,000 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    Discover the potential at 135 Kiowa Trl! This 1,568 sqft home in Lockhart ISD offers a spacious layout with a breakfast bar kitchen and primary suite garden tub. While it’s ready for some updates and personal touches, it serves as a fantastic value-add opportunity for your next project. Featuring city utilities and a level lot with existing decks, this property is a great canvas for those looking to build equity. Unlock the value today!

11. 2026-04-10
    listed $90,000 Active 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    Discover the potential at 135 Kiowa Trl! This 1,568 sqft home in Lockhart ISD offers a spacious layout with a breakfast bar kitchen and primary suite garden tub. While it’s ready for some updates and personal touches, it serves as a fantastic value-add opportunity for your next project. Featuring city utilities and a level lot with existing decks, this property is a great canvas for those looking to build equity. Unlock the value today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $507 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$865/yr (+$72/mo · 170.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$507
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,821
• − Management: −$1,821
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $11,856
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,845
• After-tax cash flow: $9,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, TX
• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 324.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $90,000 HARMLS