402 Seminole Trl · Danville, VA 24540

$85,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Other public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1975 571 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 BR 1.5 bath townhome with living room and eat in kitchen on main level with access to patio area. Upstairs has 2 spacious bedrooms and a full bath. HOA of 115.00 mo.

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• Patio area
• Full bath

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• PATIO AREA
• SPACIOUS BEDROOMS
• FULL BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 5.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in VA, #2,952 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Danville City Public School District (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #128 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 54 units permitted in Danville city in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Danville County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.17%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $19,250
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $59,196
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24540

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $260/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $636

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $567	-5% $543	+0% $519	+5% $495	+10% $471
Rent	-10% $417	-5% $468	+0% $519	+5% $570	+10% $621
Rate	-1.0pp $562	-0.5pp $541	base $519	+0.5pp $497	+1.0pp $475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
713 Springfield Rd Unit K Danville, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.29mi
248 Lakeside Dr Danville, VA	3.0	1.5	1134	$2,200	$1.94	44d	1	0.80mi
357 Terry Ave Danville, VA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,165	$1.29	44d	1	0.96mi
117 Ida St Danville, VA	3.0	1.0	925	$1,163	$1.26	44d	1	1.13mi
119 Crosland Ave Danville, VA	2.0	1.5	776	$910	$1.17	22d	1	1.21mi
1300 Franklin Tpke Danville, VA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,265	$1.26	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-02-25
   status Active 167-char remark

   Show marketing remark (167 chars)

   2 BR 1.5 bath townhome with living room and eat in kitchen on main level with access to patio area. Upstairs has 2 spacious bedrooms and a full bath. HOA of 115.00 mo.

2. 2025-11-25
   listed $85,000 Active 167-char remark

   Show marketing remark (167 chars)

   2 BR 1.5 bath townhome with living room and eat in kitchen on main level with access to patio area. Upstairs has 2 spacious bedrooms and a full bath. HOA of 115.00 mo.

3. 2018-01-30
   soldstatus $64,900
4. 2016-12-29
   soldstatus $27,000 41-char remark

   Show marketing remark (41 chars)

   End unit. Needs some TLC. Great location.

5. 2016-01-28
   listed $36,500 41-char remark

   Show marketing remark (41 chars)

   End unit. Needs some TLC. Great location.

6. 1999-10-18
   soldstatus $42,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $260 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $697 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$437/yr (+$36/mo · 168.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$260
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,242
• − Management: −$1,242
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $5,119
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,229
• After-tax cash flow: $5,000/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Danville City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101110
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,952
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6298
• State rank: #128 of 131 in VA

Livability — Danville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #2952

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danville, VA
• County: Danville City · 59,055 people
• City population: 59,055
• Metro: Danville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 31,013
• Household income: $47,924
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1170.0

Population outlook (Danville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,989 people
• By 2030: 40,432 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 39,255 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 38,035 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 35,612 · -13.1%
• By 2100: 30,365 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 42% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Danville

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.1) · D 60.1% · R 39.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.1 2020: D+22.1 2016: D+19.9 2012: D+22.1 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.79%
• Current HPI: 235.1746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Danville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Relisted — DRRAR
• 2025-11-25 Listed $85,000 DRRAR
• 2018-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records
• 2016-12-29 Sold (MLS) $27,000 DRRAR
• 2016-01-28 Listed $36,500 DRRAR
• 1999-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $260 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.